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Forums - Sales Discussion - Analyst: Xbox Business a 'Disastrous Endeavor' for Microsoft

johnlucas said:
NorthStar said:

Heaven help Nintendo if Microsoft or Sony ever listen to these Buisness analists. Nintendo needs to make money on every system sold they are a game company there is no other real source of income to Nintendo without games. Sony and microsoft can loose money on a system and if they can not make it up in games Movies electronics computers and operating systems is other areas to still make money. If the time come and Microsoft and Sony directly compete with Nintendo (system capabilities) Microsoft and Sony will Slaughter Nintendo. This is in no way a blast at Nintendo but figure into the fact sony looses more on selling a PS3 than it cost to buy a Wii let alone what it cost Nintendo to build one. Sony could have made a system the same or slightly better than the Wii and gave it away. Sony would still have lost less than they are now by selling the PS3. Who wouldn't want a machine that could do what the Wii could do for free or even half price?

I really would hate to see this as I love Nintendo and if we lose them as a console maker it would be bad for everyone. I also would hate this because it would limit serious story driven gameplay too as most people want to just sit and play around with a game. That would leave us who would rather spend 40-100 hours playing a indepth story very limited selection. Microsoft needs to find its niche in the market and it will be fine. I do think both Microsoft and sony will make profits this generation. I don't know if Microsoft is even concerned about making back the $ they lost with X-box it was an investment in future gaming machines not ever really geared to be profitable.


It wouldn't just be bad for everyone it'd be the end of the videogame industry. I support Nintendo not only because I like their games and how they make their machines but ALSO because I know who props this whole industry up. I find myself stunned at the hate for Nintendo sometimes. You don't have to like their style but if you want this industry to continue as it is you better hope they stay alive.

Sony & Microsoft play in this world but this is Nintendo's world. Their whole livelihood depends on gaming; that's why they take care of it better. And people worry about a Nintendo monopoly. A Sony and ESPECIALLY a Microsoft monopoly would be 10 times worse believe me.

Think about it. Why has every competitor who has entered the videogame field ended up losing bushels of money just trying to make it in this biz except Nintendo? All of 'em. All the Ataris & pre-NES systems, Sega, NEC, 3DO, Sony (EVEN *IN* success), Microsoft. None of 'em know how to make money in this field that's why. If they had to compete the way Nintendo competes they couldn't do what they do.

However, even IF these guys smarten up financially they are missing the special magic that Nintendo brings to their systems. They will outlast 'em all. That's saying something.

If Microsoft wasn't Microsoft they'd be out of gaming more than 2 years ago. Luckily they got money to burn. Let's see how long they plan on burning it.

John Lucas


Nintendo wasn't propping anyone up the last 10 years.  Sony carried and expanded the market, not Nintendo.  Personally, I think it would be awesome if Nintendo was a software company, or at least partnered with a hardware company.  Of course, it would be my dream for them to combine with Sony.  Even if that never happens, their strength has always been the software, not the hardware.  They tried to depend on their first party games to sell their consoles the last 10 years and they found out it didn't work.  Despite having some of the best games ever made every generation, they still need third party support and hardware power.  They have gotten some third party support back, but we'll see if they have the hardware to last because there are a ton of games that the Wii won't get. 



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Lingyis said:

why hasn't it occurred to anyone that MS is in the game business to diversify?  and that it was bill gate's vision to combine everything onto a home entertainment hub? 

it seems like our memories just don't go back that far, 7, 8 years, or whatever it is.

MS needs XBox and future incarnations more than Sony does.  MS needs the diversification.  Stopping Sony entering the PC business?  Are you suggesting a pre-emptive strike?  At a cost of like $5 billion against 1 company?  That's preposterous.  They're doing this because it just happens that it's in line with their strategy.

There's one thing shareholders and analysts have in common, and that's short-term gains.  The things with MS is that insiders probably control 30, 40% of the company, so there's unlikely to be a shareholder revolt.  That is why they can afford to keep this going as part of the management's "vision".  $1 billions a year only like 10% of Microsoft's profits, so in the name of diversification, it's utterly affordable.  Again, Microsoft NEEDS diversification.  And quite frankly, I believe it will eventually pay off; not necessarily as a successful gaming console, but something that resembles an entertainment hub.

Of course, this is more Gate's than Ballmer's vision.  We will see what direction MS management decides to take the XBox.  as a gaming console, the brand has been an unprecendented failure, but MS can use the expertise and technology gained from this "investment" to turn it into something else that could easily be more successful.

Sony acquired numerous businesses during its heyday.  Microsoft has done comparatively little to diversify.  XBox is essentially their only foray outside software.

 


The simple answer is that MS didn't think it was going to turn into a $5 billion pre-emptive strike.  They thought originally they would be able to turn a profit by the 3rd or 4th year and that the next Xbox would be profitable within a year.  Overall they expected it to not actually cost them any money long term.  Then poor sales necessitated early price cuts, then they discovered their contract with Nvidia was poorly worded and was costing them somewhere between $10 and $20 per unit, then non-Halo 1st party games continued to flop, then the bill for launching a super machine 1 year early came due....  In short it simply bled more money than MS imagined.  That's not to say that MS didn't plan to stick around and make money in the business, just that it could have easily been a secondary concern.

The shareholders would probably have a tough time getting a majority vote to force MS out of video games, but that's not the only way a shareholder revolt can occur.  If the major shareholders begin to loudly grumble and raise hell at mettings MS will have to listen eventually, if only to stop the negative press.  Major shareholders could also threaten to dump some or all of their shares and buy Apple is another tactic that has been used before.  So just because they can't muster a majority doesn't mean they are powerless.  I know shareholders were demanding MS diversify back in the 90's.  At the time MS was resting on its Windows/Office laurels and doing nothing.  However, I don't think losing $5.4 billion over 5 years ($1.4 billion in 2006 alone) is what they had in mind.

Admittedly that $5.4 billion is out of the $100 billion MS has had in profit and cash these last 5 years which isn't too much.  That being said had MS just invested the $26 billion they spent on Xbox in the stock markets it would have earned them over $32 billion instead of the $21 billion they got.  That's how business' gauge business ventures, not just on profits but on whether they made more than they would have from average investements at around 8% a year.  Seeing as the 360 is still showing no signs of profitability (per unit profitability is good but I doubt they are close to paying off initial costs and R&D yet and unit profits will disappear if they have to cut the price soon), I think it is fast getting to the point where MS will never be able to earn enough in video games to be overall profitable, assuming they become profitable at some point.  MS has a lot of money and the shareholders want it to diversify but that doesn't mean MS couldn't be doing something better with its money or that shareholders are happy with how it is spending the money to diversify.



Albionus, 

                   Great post.  



"There are three types of lies : Lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli ( Made famous by Mark Twain )

PSN ID: DeviantPathways

Wii Number: 0081 3044 1559 2355

 

didnlt MS cash reserve go from 60 billion to below 30 in the last 3 years ?



sharky said:
TheSource said:
Japan will buy American products. This has been brought up before - look at the ipods in Japan - huge. Microsoft still needs better content for Japan, and to some extent, for Europe.

The ipod is the only one. Besides iconic things like Levis or McDonalds that also aren't heavy industry. Ask General Motors how much American products the Japanese will buy. Ask GE how many TV's they sell in Japan. 

 

Do you HONESTLY think the 360 is so bad, that it sells fine everywhere else but nothing in Japan, and it's not because they simply boycott it? Then you're not very smart. And you cant say it's the games because 360 has more Japanese RPG's in Japan than PS3 does.

Wow to your post before this one, take some business classes or even basic economic classes.  A guy who understands that losing $5.4 billion over 5 years with no end in sight is not a valid business model is not a "maroon".  Thinking that blowing and continuing to blow that much to capture the "high-end" market in a single country is worth it is much closer to maroon-ville I'm afraid.  The fact that Sony sank to MS' level and is fighting soley on that front is not a testament to MS' brilliance but to the rank arrogance and idiocy at Sony.

As for Japan not buying GM, they do it for the same reason I only buy Toyota or Honda cars, quality.  Same with other "heavy industry" products like the Xbox, GE, Kenmore, etc.  I wouldn't say the 360 sells fine everywhere else.  Sales in the US are not great, barely acceptable is more like it.  It had the worst 2nd place showing since the NES days (when there essentially weren't any).  European sales are only good when compared to non-existent Japanese sales.  Yes, even if the 360 has more RPG's than the PS3 I'm not surprised Japanese would stick with the PS3.  It has the RPG's they want (the ones that are up XV size numerals), will have more in the near future, and doesn't have the terrible quality of the 360.  Again, that is a major concern for Japanese, they are used to products they buy actually working.  Strange people I know, but don't blame them MS can't make a high quality system.

 



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Hus said:
didnlt MS cash reserve go from 60 billion to below 30 in the last 3 years ?

I think in 2004 it was they made a massive dividend pay out after the double tax on dividends was eliminated.  It was something on the order of $20 billion and was their first dividend ever.  It was so large it affected national personal income figures for that quarter (it alone caused them to rise 1%).



Microsoft is aiming for 3 consoles, before making profits. For this generation 360 will be last. Because PS3 has build-in Blu-ray, a Blu-ray addon will work but not that great. PSN is free, hardcore gamers will pay for LIVE casual gamers won't. Games for Windows don't think Valve games will come to Games for Windows. Halo 2 for PC it's too old. PS3 could get rumble 2.0, and maybe PS3 will get some gloves whichwillmake it worse for 360. 360 is getting better support from third party. PS3 has more 1st party than 360. More 1st party will lead to more third party. PS3 is losing exclusives not third party. I think they are trying to attract hardcore gamers with Blue Dragon & Lost Oddesy. It's Turn Based which is wrong to attract mainstream Japan. They need to make Real Time RPG's. Mistwalker is not enough. They need a Xbox 720, to Break-Even, that will be 2016 or later.



It's entirely possible Microsoft doesn't care whether they turn much profit, so long as they're generating a new revenue stream, but they don't want to be bleeding either, though compared to Windows it may be moot anyway because $1 billion annually on $46 billion in sales with $36 billion in profits isn't much. They aren't being aggressive enough with 360 to make me think they don't care, though. Microsoft leapfrogged a 20 year veteran and put another out of the hardware business with its first entrant, while building one of the strongest stables of internal development talent (and growing rapidly), a generation headstart on building the largest online gaming presence, and significant third party support, including a vice grip on many of the previous PC developers who didn't want to venture into the console market pre-Xbox. Not a bad start for something that's worthless. The ironic thing is that Sony's the one that doubled the size of the market in a decade, yet for some reason, Nintendo's being credited with the "genius strategy" of going after new gamers (as if that's not something they do all the time considering their market outgrows them and they have to seek fresh new faces on a regular basis, but whatever).



I think Sony will pull of more online gamers than Microsoft. 6million gold and silver so how many are gold? PS3 has not much online games, but they will come.



Fractal of Time said:
I think Sony will pull of more online gamers than Microsoft. 6million gold and silver so how many are gold? PS3 has not much online games, but they will come.

 6 million Live overall.

PSn has passed 1 mill already.