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Forums - Sales - A lot of big games in EMEAA overtracked? Including gasp Halo Reach and Gran Turismo 5

crissindahouse said:

mkay but when did i say latin america has 400 million population? i believe as well that africans and the middle east don't buy much more than latin americans but as an example how wrong you could be:

latin americans earn more than africans but of these there are 200 million brazilians who have to pay more than double the price or so for gaming than someone in europe or north america.. that's why it doesn't say a lot if brazilians could possibly buy games because they earn enough. i don't know how the economy looks like in argentina at the moment but everyone should know they had some serious trouble over years and even with their "good" gdp, if these people can afford consoles nowadays? i really don't know...

maybe many people in south america don't like to play on consoles even if they have money and many africans love it? that's what i meant we germans buy much less per capita than us-americans. they buy like three times more. maybe africans with money buy like 2-5 times more than south americans with money? do you know that?

i did never talk about the populations, only as i said that of these 400 million south americans 200 have to pay horrible prices even in switzerland or finland almost nobody would buy consoles for and i think in the usa the market would be 80% or so smaller as well then. maybe these prices are the same in the other south american countries? don't know about that.

and since i think only big cities will have some gamers in africa and latin america because of obvisiously reasons, i can think about more in africa/middle east than in south america because of brazilian problem. johannesburg, cape town, cairo, riyadh, jerusalem, dubai, abu dhabi and little smaller like kuwait city will have some gamers. maybe few gamers in cities like marrakech, rabat. heard about tanzania so daressalam and so on.

the infrastructure in some parts of the middle east is very good as it is in some african regions. sure buenos aires, cordoba, bogota and so shouldn't be forgotten but i think the cities i was telling have a better condition to be "video game cities"

and don't forget i don't say africa /middle east have more gamers. maybe in africa are much less than in south america i just can say what i think about the different regions if i examine them and about brazil. i think i would be a gamer living in abu dhabi or cape town with a decent job and i believe i wouldn't be one in bogota and absolutely no in brazil.


Wow your whole argument is based on nothing but your own perception and you dare calling me wrong? Come on at least try to bring some numbers like I did for example with population and average income. Saying Abu Dhabi or Cape Town contains more gamers than Bogota or Buenos Aires is just plain ridiculous if you cannot back it with some numbers.

Again the point here is just to show that Africa and Middle East cannot count for like 4 times the sales of Latin America...it just doesnt make sense.



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atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
 

average annual income per capita is actually 11k, and if it's 2k for black people, that means the capita is 42k per non black person. Canada's capita is 40k, and USA's is 50k (but don't be fooled, USA actually has the highest poverty rate of all the developed countries. They just have super corperations to balance this number).

So 20% of South Africa is stil 1/3rd the population of Canada, and the capita is the same. That would make 1/3rd the game sales very plausible (these places aren't as rural as you think). Johannesburg for instance is more populated then every city above north america except New Mexico, New York City, and Toronto (yay third biggest in NA).

Maybe 400k sales of some of these major franchise installments (lets use GT) might be much, but 200k from this country alone is damn well plausible. Also there are countries in the East coast of Africa, and middle east not accounted for.


I'm not buying that either.

Let's take your numbers, if all the rest of Americas (exluding USA and Canada) counts for 8.3% of Americas total, then it means that so far a game like GT5 has sold 161k over there. I don't see how african and middle east countries can count for around 4 times more sales than latin america.

Btw Toronto is not the third largest city in NA but the 5th and fall to 8th if we count the metropolitan areas :)

Yea I heard Toronto was the fifth, but Wikipedia give numbers above Los Angeles and I forget who was forth.

Also Games that are popular in South America =/= games that are popular in South Afirca. One guy from South Africa already corrected me and told me Halo isn't but there. but GT5 is.

Also by total population Afirca is over tiwce as large as South America. Not sure the population of developed (ish) countries, but it's more then SA because Brazil for instance put ridiculously high taxes on consoles so sales are low. Basically Africa and Middle East (on top of those smaller European countries) have more countries and population that game. South Africa, Egypt, Tanzania, Kenya, Saudi Arabia, mant countries in the middle east, and even South Korea give us that 600-700k missing for GT5.



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binary solo said:
Michael-5 said:
mjk45 said:
I think your forgetting the middle east they seem to have gotten behind the PS3 also NDP only tracks NA where as Vgchartz is Americas as to Polophony I will leave that to ethmoza .

NDP only tracks USA, not Canada. VGC include Brazil, Mexico, and many other regions for it's Americas number. However a while ago I read that 87% of the Americas sales are contributed to US sales, and I would assume 8.7% contribute to Canada (1/10th the population).

As for EMEAA, not only did the OP forget the middle east, but they also forgot Africa. In the Middle East, Africa and Asia territory, there are 5 million PS3's and 3 million 360's. 600k for GT5 or Halo off 5 or 3 million consoles is very doable.

That and VGC now track Halo Reach digital sales from the bundle, NDP doesn't include those numbers.

I think, because they can't track all games that have a dual digital and disc release, that VGC should not be tracking Halo Reach digital sales. It's somewhat distorting of the sales charts if some games are goona have digital sales incl and others not. Unless they track those sales separately so you can see what's digital and what's disc.

More generally though SW sales are known to be less accurate than HW sales on this site. This is a sales ESTIMATING site after all. So if GT5 appears to have a 500K discrepancy between reported and actual (which is by no means certain) then that's only a difference of 12%. Seems like a pretty good job of estimating sales to me. Not really worth making a big deal of.

Get back to me when sales are >20% out of whack.

I don't mind VGC counting digital sales of Halo Reach because they are counting them via number of bundles sold (which would give a disproportional amount of Halo sales). However if they are going to do this, they must be consistant and do it for all digital bundles (Alan Wake for instance).

The main thing is VGC needs to be consistant, and they aren't right now.



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Michael-5 said:
atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
 

average annual income per capita is actually 11k, and if it's 2k for black people, that means the capita is 42k per non black person. Canada's capita is 40k, and USA's is 50k (but don't be fooled, USA actually has the highest poverty rate of all the developed countries. They just have super corperations to balance this number).

So 20% of South Africa is stil 1/3rd the population of Canada, and the capita is the same. That would make 1/3rd the game sales very plausible (these places aren't as rural as you think). Johannesburg for instance is more populated then every city above north america except New Mexico, New York City, and Toronto (yay third biggest in NA).

Maybe 400k sales of some of these major franchise installments (lets use GT) might be much, but 200k from this country alone is damn well plausible. Also there are countries in the East coast of Africa, and middle east not accounted for.


I'm not buying that either.

Let's take your numbers, if all the rest of Americas (exluding USA and Canada) counts for 8.3% of Americas total, then it means that so far a game like GT5 has sold 161k over there. I don't see how african and middle east countries can count for around 4 times more sales than latin america.

Btw Toronto is not the third largest city in NA but the 5th and fall to 8th if we count the metropolitan areas :)

Yea I heard Toronto was the fifth, but Wikipedia give numbers above Los Angeles and I forget who was forth.

Also Games that are popular in South America =/= games that are popular in South Afirca. One guy from South Africa already corrected me and told me Halo isn't but there. but GT5 is.

Also by total population Afirca is over tiwce as large as South America. Not sure the population of developed (ish) countries, but it's more then SA because Brazil for instance put ridiculously high taxes on consoles so sales are low. Basically Africa and Middle East (on top of those smaller European countries) have more countries and population that game. South Africa, Egypt, Tanzania, Kenya, Saudi Arabia, mant countries in the middle east, and even South Korea give us that 600-700k missing for GT5.

I heard that racing games are very popular in South America. Anyway we cannot base our estimations on what we hear or not.

Also you can't include South Korea or any other asian countries (maybe even not Middle East countries, since they are part of Asia after all) because the op (and PD) included them into his calculation. PD shipped 230k copies in Asia.

So if the whole Latin America count for 8.3% of the Americas, and that VGC has 1.459M for GT5 in 2010, then it means Latin America sold 121k copies of GT5.

Latin America is 600 million people and its people are generally more rich than in Africa. So even if Africa is 1 billion, I don't think it can sell as much as 600k or 700k . As for the small european countries PD included them in Europe.



atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
 

average annual income per capita is actually 11k, and if it's 2k for black people, that means the capita is 42k per non black person. Canada's capita is 40k, and USA's is 50k (but don't be fooled, USA actually has the highest poverty rate of all the developed countries. They just have super corperations to balance this number).

So 20% of South Africa is stil 1/3rd the population of Canada, and the capita is the same. That would make 1/3rd the game sales very plausible (these places aren't as rural as you think). Johannesburg for instance is more populated then every city above north america except New Mexico, New York City, and Toronto (yay third biggest in NA).

Maybe 400k sales of some of these major franchise installments (lets use GT) might be much, but 200k from this country alone is damn well plausible. Also there are countries in the East coast of Africa, and middle east not accounted for.


I'm not buying that either.

Let's take your numbers, if all the rest of Americas (exluding USA and Canada) counts for 8.3% of Americas total, then it means that so far a game like GT5 has sold 161k over there. I don't see how african and middle east countries can count for around 4 times more sales than latin america.

Btw Toronto is not the third largest city in NA but the 5th and fall to 8th if we count the metropolitan areas :)

Yea I heard Toronto was the fifth, but Wikipedia give numbers above Los Angeles and I forget who was forth.

Also Games that are popular in South America =/= games that are popular in South Afirca. One guy from South Africa already corrected me and told me Halo isn't but there. but GT5 is.

Also by total population Afirca is over tiwce as large as South America. Not sure the population of developed (ish) countries, but it's more then SA because Brazil for instance put ridiculously high taxes on consoles so sales are low. Basically Africa and Middle East (on top of those smaller European countries) have more countries and population that game. South Africa, Egypt, Tanzania, Kenya, Saudi Arabia, mant countries in the middle east, and even South Korea give us that 600-700k missing for GT5.

I heard that racing games are very popular in South America. Anyway we cannot base our estimations on what we hear or not.

Also you can't include South Korea or any other asian countries (maybe even not Middle East countries, since they are part of Asia after all) because the op (and PD) included them into his calculation. PD shipped 230k copies in Asia.

So if the whole Latin America count for 8.3% of the Americas, and that VGC has 1.459M for GT5 in 2010, then it means Latin America sold 121k copies of GT5.

Latin America is 600 million people and its people are generally more rich than in Africa. So even if Africa is 1 billion, I don't think it can sell as much as 600k or 700k . As for the small european countries PD included them in Europe.

Okay yea true, but games like GT5 sold twice as well in EMEAA, so with a matching population, that's more like 240k game sales.

Anyway, my point is Africa has a significant gaming population, and the Europe in that study is only 17 countries, not 50 (although the other countries are significantly smaller), and the Middle East also has strong gaming populations. Europe does not account for 80% or great of the EMEAA (at least not the 17 larger countries).

South America, at only 8% of 21.5 million PS3 units is only 1.6 million PS3 consoles. Middle East Africa and Asia is 5 million, and I bet 3 million of that is outside of Asia. Add in another 1.5/3 million from Other Europe, and that's about 3x the console user base of Latin America. 3x the user base with 2x the sales per userbase, that's 720k or so, almost exactly what the P thinks these games are overtracked by.

GT5 is not overtracked, same with Halo and others. End of Story.



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Michael-5 said:
atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
 

average annual income per capita is actually 11k, and if it's 2k for black people, that means the capita is 42k per non black person. Canada's capita is 40k, and USA's is 50k (but don't be fooled, USA actually has the highest poverty rate of all the developed countries. They just have super corperations to balance this number).

So 20% of South Africa is stil 1/3rd the population of Canada, and the capita is the same. That would make 1/3rd the game sales very plausible (these places aren't as rural as you think). Johannesburg for instance is more populated then every city above north america except New Mexico, New York City, and Toronto (yay third biggest in NA).

Maybe 400k sales of some of these major franchise installments (lets use GT) might be much, but 200k from this country alone is damn well plausible. Also there are countries in the East coast of Africa, and middle east not accounted for.


I'm not buying that either.

Let's take your numbers, if all the rest of Americas (exluding USA and Canada) counts for 8.3% of Americas total, then it means that so far a game like GT5 has sold 161k over there. I don't see how african and middle east countries can count for around 4 times more sales than latin america.

Btw Toronto is not the third largest city in NA but the 5th and fall to 8th if we count the metropolitan areas :)

Yea I heard Toronto was the fifth, but Wikipedia give numbers above Los Angeles and I forget who was forth.

Also Games that are popular in South America =/= games that are popular in South Afirca. One guy from South Africa already corrected me and told me Halo isn't but there. but GT5 is.

Also by total population Afirca is over tiwce as large as South America. Not sure the population of developed (ish) countries, but it's more then SA because Brazil for instance put ridiculously high taxes on consoles so sales are low. Basically Africa and Middle East (on top of those smaller European countries) have more countries and population that game. South Africa, Egypt, Tanzania, Kenya, Saudi Arabia, mant countries in the middle east, and even South Korea give us that 600-700k missing for GT5.

I heard that racing games are very popular in South America. Anyway we cannot base our estimations on what we hear or not.

Also you can't include South Korea or any other asian countries (maybe even not Middle East countries, since they are part of Asia after all) because the op (and PD) included them into his calculation. PD shipped 230k copies in Asia.

So if the whole Latin America count for 8.3% of the Americas, and that VGC has 1.459M for GT5 in 2010, then it means Latin America sold 121k copies of GT5.

Latin America is 600 million people and its people are generally more rich than in Africa. So even if Africa is 1 billion, I don't think it can sell as much as 600k or 700k . As for the small european countries PD included them in Europe.

Okay yea true, but games like GT5 sold twice as well in EMEAA, so with a matching population, that's more like 240k game sales.

Anyway, my point is Africa has a significant gaming population, and the Europe in that study is only 17 countries, not 50 (although the other countries are significantly smaller), and the Middle East also has strong gaming populations. Europe does not account for 80% or great of the EMEAA (at least not the 17 larger countries).

South America, at only 8% of 21.5 million PS3 units is only 1.6 million PS3 consoles. Middle East Africa and Asia is 5 million, and I bet 3 million of that is outside of Asia. Add in another 1.5/3 million from Other Europe, and that's about 3x the console user base of Latin America. 3x the user base with 2x the sales per userbase, that's 720k or so, almost exactly what the P thinks these games are overtracked by.

GT5 is not overtracked, same with Halo and others. End of Story.

It seems you haven't read a word of my last post.

Anyway your numbers are just pulled out of a hat and doesnt even make sense, like pretending there is more PS3 in Africa than in Asia... and 2x the sales per userbase?

You did not prove that these games are not overtracked. End of Story.



atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
atma998 said:

I heard that racing games are very popular in South America. Anyway we cannot base our estimations on what we hear or not.

Also you can't include South Korea or any other asian countries (maybe even not Middle East countries, since they are part of Asia after all) because the op (and PD) included them into his calculation. PD shipped 230k copies in Asia.

So if the whole Latin America count for 8.3% of the Americas, and that VGC has 1.459M for GT5 in 2010, then it means Latin America sold 121k copies of GT5.

Latin America is 600 million people and its people are generally more rich than in Africa. So even if Africa is 1 billion, I don't think it can sell as much as 600k or 700k . As for the small european countries PD included them in Europe.

Okay yea true, but games like GT5 sold twice as well in EMEAA, so with a matching population, that's more like 240k game sales.

Anyway, my point is Africa has a significant gaming population, and the Europe in that study is only 17 countries, not 50 (although the other countries are significantly smaller), and the Middle East also has strong gaming populations. Europe does not account for 80% or great of the EMEAA (at least not the 17 larger countries).

South America, at only 8% of 21.5 million PS3 units is only 1.6 million PS3 consoles. Middle East Africa and Asia is 5 million, and I bet 3 million of that is outside of Asia. Add in another 1.5/3 million from Other Europe, and that's about 3x the console user base of Latin America. 3x the user base with 2x the sales per userbase, that's 720k or so, almost exactly what the P thinks these games are overtracked by.

GT5 is not overtracked, same with Halo and others. End of Story.

It seems you haven't read a word of my last post.

Anyway your numbers are just pulled out of a hat and doesnt even make sense, like pretending there is more PS3 in Africa than in Asia... and 2x the sales per userbase?

You did not prove that these games are not overtracked. End of Story.

GT5 sold twice as well per console in EMEAA over America.

Also I said 3/5 million PS3 sales in MEAA are from Africa AND Middle East, giving Asia the largest territory.

Read your last post, but I think your ignoring mine.



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ethomaz said:
Michael-5 said:

Either way ethomaz, March 31st is coming, and I don't see GT5 breaking 8.5 million by then. Going to win our little bet of 2 weeks sig and avatar control, .

Seems like ... my chance now is wait PD release their numbers and hope they show that VGC has to adjust it .

In my math GT5 is at least 300k undertracked here.

Do you ever get tired of that one word?



Nsanity said:
ethomaz said:
Michael-5 said:

Either way ethomaz, March 31st is coming, and I don't see GT5 breaking 8.5 million by then. Going to win our little bet of 2 weeks sig and avatar control, .

Seems like ... my chance now is wait PD release their numbers and hope they show that VGC has to adjust it .

In my math GT5 is at least 300k undertracked here.

Do you ever get tired of that one word?

No .

In fact this word is a legacy from an old user who abandoned us... so I use it to remember him .



ethomaz said:
Nsanity said:
ethomaz said:
Michael-5 said:

Either way ethomaz, March 31st is coming, and I don't see GT5 breaking 8.5 million by then. Going to win our little bet of 2 weeks sig and avatar control, .

Seems like ... my chance now is wait PD release their numbers and hope they show that VGC has to adjust it .

In my math GT5 is at least 300k undertracked here.

Do you ever get tired of that one word?

No .

In fact this word is a legacy from an old user who abandoned us... so I use it to remember him .

I don't recall CGI ever claiming GT5 was undertracked. He thought it would break 10 million lifetime (which looks unlikely now).



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