This is exactly what I meant from my previous comment.  Probably should have specified more.  You are correct that the majority of the 360's initial success was due to the PS3's awful launch.  Not only was price much higher ($499/$599 to 360's $299/$399), but they lacked any real killer eclusive and 3rd party support til late '07/early '08.  Microsoft also made sure to keep the price difference as large as possible, dropping the price of entry to $199 in '08, while the PS3's entry was $399. 

Next gen is going to be completely different.  Sony is sticking with Blu-ray, so that will cut costs immensely.  They will also probably not be developing a new type of CPU to use, instead sticking with a natural evolution of the Cell.  So, next gen MS and Sony will probably be launching a next gen console at a similar price, with similar power.  I think next gen there isn't going to be as much room for 2 high end consoles, especially ones that will be even more similar than this gen.  The main difference will be SW offerings, which Sony wins with it myriad of 1st parties.  The Playstation brand is going to win out in Japan and EMEAA.  In America, I see the PS brand seeing a ressurgence due to the PS4's better launch price and support.

If the above does happen, and the NeXbox isn't profitable out of the gate, I can see MS getting even more pressure from investors to drop the Xbox division.  Or at least the HW side of things.  They would probably go the Sega route and continue to develop and/or publish games for the other consoles.

Of course it won't be in 5 years, it will be in 5 quarters.

Didnt know Sonys PS3 launch was as expensive as MS's RROD expenses lol

Nice to see MS have been profiting steadily over the years.

Not sure on accuracy of the numbers. 1 thing that isnt correct is to start with 2000 for Microsoft.

Xbox launched November 2001 which was during Microsoft Fiscal Year 2002. Microsoft Fiscal Year starts July 1st and end June 30th. Currently this is Microsoft FY2012.  Maybe going back to Microsoft Fiscal Year 2001, but definetly now FY2000.  Sony for instance launched the PS1 December 1994 and the first Fiscal Year shown is 1995. PS1 launched during Sony Q3 Fiscal Year 2004.  So for Microsoft a whole extra year+ is included and for Sony a year isnt included.

I guess we are all allowed to have our own opinions.

IMO, if the scenario you described plays out as far as both the NextBox and PS4 being even more similar in hardware capabilities, the only differentiator will be the gimmick (PS Move 2.0/Kinect 2.0/Other new thing they release) and their online services. First party software is shrinking every year as far as it's importance to a console. Third party is taking over and with the games line-ups being merely identical except for the 3-4 exclusives each year, that's going to be even less of a selling point.

IMO, the NextBox would continue to dominate the Americas with it's Kinect technology and Xbox Live being far superior to PSN. Sony will also be forced to start charging for PSN come the new generation. They just simply can no longer afford to keep eating all those bandwitdth and storage costs with the dire state their company is in as a whole. PSN+ is making back some costs, but not enough. Europe will be a pretty even split, with MS maybe able to gain some ground this new generation by releasing more stable hardware and increasing support for more countries. Japan is about the only Sony stronghold it would maintain.

I also see MS able to really get started sooner because as much as people want to talk about the 1st few years of profitability the division is now profitable.  Yes so is PS3 division now profitable again, but not nearly as much. Sony is going to be less willing to put in as much launch cash. So I see MS putting in more investment to come in less costly and launch more effectivly if not just sooner.

Finally Xbox Live subscriptions are going to be really a large incentive for people to stick with Xbox.  More and more integrated services is making it harder and harder for people to simply just switch.  Backwards compatability of Xbox Live will be even more important to backwards compatability of games.

interesting, thanks for sharing

What people forget with Sony is the flow on and synergy they got with the playstation in regards to other divisions , like helping bring dvd and bluray to market and underpinning the cost of R&D for the cell ,even though that was envisioned to be a cpu for use in a wide range of electronic appliances and white goods , so really it has done more than it's share of the heavy lifting ,one reason it is seen as the easiest way to introduce this tech to the public from a Sony point of view and that benefits the companies strategy , unfortunately it stops the Playstation brand from making the amount of profit it should .

PS2 had nothing to do with DVD coming to market.  DVD players were available for under $200 when PS2 launched.  DVD players launched nearly 3 years before PS2 launched.  Now BluRay is of course a big part of the PS3 story, but will never be as big as DVD and wont have as long a mainstream life.

The charts are a little misleading. Neither Sony nor MS have a pure gaming division and as such it includes many other components rolled into them, some of them with large losses like MS phones and Zune.