We already know the PS3 took that week last year by ~102K.  In 2009, it took that week by ~258K.  In 2007, it took that week by ~91K.  Since its launch, the PS3 has only lost to the 360 2 years during that week.  In its launch year, 2006, it lost by ~33K.  However, this is because the PS3 hadn't launched in much of EMEAA.  And once again in 2008, which was the year that saw the release of the $199 360 SKU.  But even with the great pricecut, the 360 only was able to outsell it by ~4K. 

So yea, using common sense, as well as previous numbers, its easy to see the PS3 will probably outsell the 360 that week this year by ~80K-100K.  Still, I'm treating it like a tie.

So has the Xbox a chance to beat PS3 in this years total sales?

What are the current trends suggesting as final numbers for 2011 sales for X360 and PS3 respecitvely?

Well, I suppose there is always a chance.  Personally, I still think it's not going to happen.  As far as trends, we're really going to have to wait til this weeks numbers are revealed before we can really see any.  Black Friday week is always nuts.  This year's, especially, with the specials beginning on Thurs.  Though, I would expect the 360 to have at least a small lead over the PS3 til after Christmas week.  Of course, I've been treating the last week like a tie.  But, in reality, history shows the PS3 will probably take that week by ~80K-100K.

The XBox 360 will have another 400K advantage Christmas week. It'll need some solid numbers the 3 weeks leading up to that. What's hurting the 360 is the port sales in Europe. The PS3 will obviously outsell it there, but the different should be a lot smaller. Mayke 30-40K at the most.

I took the sales increase / decrease each week after black friday for each console from last year and applied them to the black friday sales for the Wii / 360 / PS3 this year to extrapolate sales through 12/31/11. Here is what the year end total for each console ends up being (globally):

Wii: 96,420,562
360: 65,440,090
PS3: 60,581,794

That would mean the 2011 sales for each console would be:

Wii: 13,950,375
360: 15,128,867
PS3: 14,320,514

360 would have outsold PS3 in 2011 by 808,353.

The five weeks after black friday last year sold 5.09 times as many units as the week of Black Friday for the three consoles combined. If we assume the same and assume the same relative sales gap as we saw Black Friday (in which the 360 outsold the PS3 by 411,587), we would project the 360 sales gap over PS3 in the next five weeks to be 5.09 x 411,587 = 2,095,964. The 5.09 is based on the combined sales of the Wii / 360 / PS3. If we take the individual sales trends for each console and apply them to each consoles totals of Black Friday this year, the sales gap for 360 would increase over PS3 during the next 5 weeks by 1,800,625, which is the stat that I thiink the sales will be closer to (and the stat I am using to get the figures above).

The two weeks before Christmas each actually sell more units than Black Friday. The two weeks prior to that sell almost as many units as Black Friday (about 80%). Considering those statistics, 360 has a VERY good chance of passing PS3 for 2011 by year end if the relative sales gap we saw between the two during Black Friday remains in place. The 360 is less than a million behind now and only needs about 2.5 times the gap it had on PS3 during Black Friday to overtake the PS3 sales. I think 360 will beat PS3 in 2011 sales rather handily when all is said and done.

The extrapolation of sales actually projects the 360 to take over the 2011 sales lead before the week of Christmas (after the week ending 12/17/11).

The 360 sales were hurt the week of Christmas and the week after last year due to huge shortages. Hopefully MS doesn't have similar problems this year. If it weren't for the shortages I am pretty sure the 360 would have outsold the PS3 the week after Christmas in 2010. The shortages were pretty severe.

Interesting projection, thanks.  Last year we know that the 360 was supply constrained toward the end of December too and it looks like they've worked to not have that situation repeat.  But the PS3 still has one big release in Japan coming (FFXIII-2) so that could throw off the comparison.  We'll just have to wait and see ...

You're expecting XIII-2 to make much if a difference? It will boost for sure but probably not to the extend you're implying.

There's two problems with your assessment, though.  For one, this year's Black Friday was much larger than last years because instead of deals starting early Friday morning, they started Thurs night at 9/10 PM.  This lead to a lot more people going out to take advantage of the Black Friday deals, ones who normally would choose sleep over going out early Friday morning.  Which, in turn, will mean a lot more people got in their holiday shopping during Black Friday and will probably cause a slight drop off in the sales that would have gone to the weeks right before Christmas. 

And second, the 360 had plenty of stock for the month of December in 2010.  This is because MS moved the shipments that were supposed to go out in early Jan to December, to make sure they had enough stock.  The shortages were mostly felt in January - early February. 

Ahhh this will be really close. It depends how well the PS3 sells in EMEAA and Japan and how good 360 sells in Americas. PS3 is looking to rule the holidays in EMEAA and Japan with the launch of FF 13 -2 (looking at the review scores which is pretty great so far) And Kinect and U.S.A. will rule U.S.A. for sure. Xbox outselling PS3 looks unlikely because PS3 usually does pretty good in the U.S.A. in the month of December while 360 remains flat or just marginal increases in EMEAA. If PS3 can do as good as it did in the U.S.A. last year than PS3 will remain or take the lead unless Xbox can do 2-2.5 million in the U.S.A. in December which looks like a low possibility and add the fact that PS3 is looking to have a great holiday in Japan and the best ever holiday in EMEAA 360 outselling PS3 looks like a low possibility