pachoo5 said:
I took the sales increase / decrease each week after black friday for each console from last year and applied them to the black friday sales for the Wii / 360 / PS3 this year to extrapolate sales through 12/31/11. Here is what the year end total for each console ends up being (globally):
Wii: 96,420,562
360: 65,440,090
PS3: 60,581,794
That would mean the 2011 sales for each console would be:
Wii: 13,950,375
360: 15,128,867
PS3: 14,320,514
360 would have outsold PS3 in 2011 by 808,353.
The five weeks after black friday last year sold 5.09 times as many units as the week of Black Friday for the three consoles combined. If we assume the same and assume the same relative sales gap as we saw Black Friday (in which the 360 outsold the PS3 by 411,587), we would project the 360 sales gap over PS3 in the next five weeks to be 5.09 x 411,587 = 2,095,964. The 5.09 is based on the combined sales of the Wii / 360 / PS3. If we take the individual sales trends for each console and apply them to each consoles totals of Black Friday this year, the sales gap for 360 would increase over PS3 during the next 5 weeks by 1,800,625, which is the stat that I thiink the sales will be closer to (and the stat I am using to get the figures above).
The two weeks before Christmas each actually sell more units than Black Friday. The two weeks prior to that sell almost as many units as Black Friday (about 80%). Considering those statistics, 360 has a VERY good chance of passing PS3 for 2011 by year end if the relative sales gap we saw between the two during Black Friday remains in place. The 360 is less than a million behind now and only needs about 2.5 times the gap it had on PS3 during Black Friday to overtake the PS3 sales. I think 360 will beat PS3 in 2011 sales rather handily when all is said and done.
The extrapolation of sales actually projects the 360 to take over the 2011 sales lead before the week of Christmas (after the week ending 12/17/11).
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There's two problems with your assessment, though. For one, this year's Black Friday was much larger than last years because instead of deals starting early Friday morning, they started Thurs night at 9/10 PM. This lead to a lot more people going out to take advantage of the Black Friday deals, ones who normally would choose sleep over going out early Friday morning. Which, in turn, will mean a lot more people got in their holiday shopping during Black Friday and will probably cause a slight drop off in the sales that would have gone to the weeks right before Christmas.
And second, the 360 had plenty of stock for the month of December in 2010. This is because MS moved the shipments that were supposed to go out in early Jan to December, to make sure they had enough stock. The shortages were mostly felt in January - early February.
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