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Forums - Sales Discussion - 10 Week Countdown 2011 - End Results

wirralsman said:

Going to get involved for the first time....

They're probably way off the mark!

Welcome to the site, though it seems you've been here for years.

Is it correct that your PS3 total should be 6460?



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Why were most people so totally off base with the handhelds last year? It was only common sense that the DS would see massive YOY declines last holiday. The DS price cut in June and September last year had basically no effect. I just assumed that saturation would have a huge impact on its holiday sales. PSP was a bit harder to anticipate but if you were keeping track of the COMG preorder thread you probably would have realized that MH3P was going to be absolutely gargantuan. Anyway, give me time to think about my predictions. I'll probably have them up later tonight or tomorrow.



Proudest Platinums:
1. Gran Turismo 5
2. Persona 4 Arena
3. Wipeout HD
4. Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2
5. Super Street Fighter 4

postofficebuddy said:
Why were most people so totally off base with the handhelds last year? It was only common sense that the DS would see massive YOY declines last holiday. The DS price cut in June and September last year had basically no effect. I just assumed that saturation would have a huge impact on its holiday sales. PSP was a bit harder to anticipate but if you were keeping track of the COMG preorder thread you probably would have realized that MH3P was going to be absolutely gargantuan. Anyway, give me time to think about my predictions. I'll probably have them up later tonight or tomorrow.

There were some big PSP adjustments about a few days after everyone had predicted.

As for the DS, in terms of what people were predicting for the total 10 weeks sales, on average people had lower expectations than what the DS managed. In fact with the final numbers in only non-gravity and jonop predicted the DS to sell more than it did (and the 'original' unadjusted figures had the DS over 1 million units higher still)

Using "Mr.Average's" scores, the DS was the 2nd best platform in terms of people's prediction accuracy for the final results. Although as shown with PSP, prediction accuracy is more dependant on the unadjusted figures, for which the DS was 3rd in accuracy.

Mr. Average's scores here roughly represent the accuracy of last years group as a whole:

Original unadjusted figures:
PS3 - 88
360 - 135
DS - 196
PSP - 304
Wii - 401

Final Adjusted figures:
PS3 - 93
DS - 108
360 - 144
Wii - 325
PSP - 353

Yes the PSP was bad , mostly because of big adjustments after I had stopped taking prediction edits, but I would say the Wii was the bigger failure... true there were also some adjustments to the Wii at the same time as for PSP, but they were not as large, and I think even if people had been able to use their hindsight they would not have expected the Wii to do so well.



TWRoO said:

There were some big PSP adjustments about a few days after everyone had predicted.

As for the DS, in terms of what people were predicting for the total 10 weeks sales, on average people had lower expectations than what the DS managed. In fact with the final numbers in only non-gravity and jonop predicted the DS to sell more than it did (and the 'original' unadjusted figures had the DS over 1 million units higher still)

Using "Mr.Average's" scores, the DS was the 2nd best platform in terms of people's prediction accuracy for the final results. Although as shown with PSP, prediction accuracy is more dependant on the unadjusted figures, for which the DS was 3rd in accuracy.

Mr. Average's scores here roughly represent the accuracy of last years group as a whole:

Original unadjusted figures:
PS3 - 88
360 - 135
DS - 196
PSP - 304
Wii - 401

Final Adjusted figures:
PS3 - 93
DS - 108
360 - 144
Wii - 325
PSP - 353

Yes the PSP was bad , mostly because of big adjustments after I had stopped taking prediction edits, but I would say the Wii was the bigger failure... true there were also some adjustments to the Wii at the same time as for PSP, but they were not as large, and I think even if people had been able to use their hindsight they would not have expected the Wii to do so well.


Ahh, my mistake. I only looked at the overall points, not the specific weekly predictions. I think a lot of the Wii predictions were bad because of Japan. I know I didn't expect DKCR to do very good there. I figured 3DS anticipation and overall lack of compelling software would lead to abbysmal numbers for the Wii there that holiday. It was hovering close to 10k right before the holidays and even Epic Yarn and the Mario 25th Aniiversary collection didn't lift sales noticeably so I figured it was already in a death spiral in that region.



Proudest Platinums:
1. Gran Turismo 5
2. Persona 4 Arena
3. Wipeout HD
4. Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2
5. Super Street Fighter 4

Since There's some time left, I will post some changes:

Week 1 week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 total
WII 180 240 350 500 900 800 1100 1300 1400 550 7320
X360 250 300 500 450 800 550 650 870 950 450 5770
PS3 290 380 450 450 800 650 750 960 1100 520 6350
3DS 260 400 480 700 1200 1400 1500 1500 1800 760 10000



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daveJ said:

My numbers are after adjustments, Im more interested in seeing how close the totals are and not the individual weeks


Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Wk9 Wk10 Total
Wii 150 175 215
250 300 350 400 450 500 350 3140
PS3 250 300
350 400 600 700 800 900 1200 700 6200
X360 225
250 300 350 500 600 700 750 1000 500 5175
3DS 200 225 250
300 450 500 600 700 850 400 4475

For the OP, Ive added 3ds now & formatted the table so its easier to see.

I think most people are overestimating the 3DS sales, are parents wanting to buy a gift for their children with a eye health warning on it?



All bow to me the VGChartz current reigning 3DS prediction champion 

 Bet with tbone51: Pokeon X & pokemon Y will not sell more than 8 million in 2013

 jarrod said:The Xbox360 or ps3 will not sell more than 75million units

July 2009 daveJ saidTrue the wii has a large lead now but by 2017 the most likely result will be 1. ps3 2. xbox360 3. wii <-- wii's successor launched in 2011 effectively killing sales of the wii

 2009 daveJ said: The wii will not break the 50% marketshare barrier it will go below the 40% marketshare barrier though in the future. VGChartz members: Impossible, youre an idiot that knows nothing about sales

ps3 260 315 370 380 800 630 750 940 1005 550
360 230 250 405 420 860 620 730 870 1000 440
wii 150 170 230 350 660 550 650 750 850 400
3ds need more time

will edit and add 3ds b4 deadline wii and ds are hard, wheres zucas dmj and that other guy that came 2nd to me in 08, how bout source and ioi? i want to face real champions. . .



                                                             

                                                                      Play Me

BHR-3 said:
ps3 260 315 370 380 800 630 750 940 1005 550
360 230 250 405 420 860 620 730 870 1000 440
wii 150 170 230 350 660 550 650 750 850 400
3ds need more time

will edit and add 3ds b4 deadline wii and ds are hard, wheres zucas dmj and that other guy that came 2nd to me in 08, how bout source and ioi? i want to face real champions. . .

I really didn´t expect you to show up in time.

I don't think zucas participated in 09 or 10 since he isn't on my to spam list. DMJ and koffieboon have been offline too long. ioi and Source can only lose and never win.

On the postive side you get to face Carl.



Hey I updated my numbers back in the last page I think. Do not forget to update them just cuz' I'll win this time ya,



 

 

 

 

 

BHR-3 said:
ps3 260 315 370 380 800 630 750 940 1005 550
360 230 250 405 420 860 620 730 870 1000 440
wii 150 170 230 350 660 550 650 750 850 400
3ds need more time

will edit and add 3ds b4 deadline wii and ds are hard, wheres zucas dmj and that other guy that came 2nd to me in 08, how bout source and ioi? i want to face real champions. . .


Good, good you showed up! *evil laugh*



^_^