10 Week Countdown 2011 - End Results

[postofficebuddy]

TWRoO said:

There were some big PSP adjustments about a few days after everyone had predicted.

As for the DS, in terms of what people were predicting for the total 10 weeks sales, on average people had lower expectations than what the DS managed. In fact with the final numbers in only non-gravity and jonop predicted the DS to sell more than it did (and the 'original' unadjusted figures had the DS over 1 million units higher still)

Using "Mr.Average's" scores, the DS was the 2nd best platform in terms of people's prediction accuracy for the final results. Although as shown with PSP, prediction accuracy is more dependant on the unadjusted figures, for which the DS was 3rd in accuracy.

Mr. Average's scores here roughly represent the accuracy of last years group as a whole:

Original unadjusted figures:
PS3 - 88
360 - 135
DS - 196
PSP - 304
Wii - 401

Final Adjusted figures:
PS3 - 93
DS - 108
360 - 144
Wii - 325
PSP - 353

Yes the PSP was bad , mostly because of big adjustments after I had stopped taking prediction edits, but I would say the Wii was the bigger failure... true there were also some adjustments to the Wii at the same time as for PSP, but they were not as large, and I think even if people had been able to use their hindsight they would not have expected the Wii to do so well.

Ahh, my mistake. I only looked at the overall points, not the specific weekly predictions. I think a lot of the Wii predictions were bad because of Japan. I know I didn't expect DKCR to do very good there. I figured 3DS anticipation and overall lack of compelling software would lead to abbysmal numbers for the Wii there that holiday. It was hovering close to 10k right before the holidays and even Epic Yarn and the Mario 25th Aniiversary collection didn't lift sales noticeably so I figured it was already in a death spiral in that region.