| postofficebuddy said: Why were most people so totally off base with the handhelds last year? It was only common sense that the DS would see massive YOY declines last holiday. The DS price cut in June and September last year had basically no effect. I just assumed that saturation would have a huge impact on its holiday sales. PSP was a bit harder to anticipate but if you were keeping track of the COMG preorder thread you probably would have realized that MH3P was going to be absolutely gargantuan. Anyway, give me time to think about my predictions. I'll probably have them up later tonight or tomorrow. |
There were some big PSP adjustments about a few days after everyone had predicted.
As for the DS, in terms of what people were predicting for the total 10 weeks sales, on average people had lower expectations than what the DS managed. In fact with the final numbers in only non-gravity and jonop predicted the DS to sell more than it did (and the 'original' unadjusted figures had the DS over 1 million units higher still)
Using "Mr.Average's" scores, the DS was the 2nd best platform in terms of people's prediction accuracy for the final results. Although as shown with PSP, prediction accuracy is more dependant on the unadjusted figures, for which the DS was 3rd in accuracy.
Mr. Average's scores here roughly represent the accuracy of last years group as a whole:
Original unadjusted figures:
PS3 - 88
360 - 135
DS - 196
PSP - 304
Wii - 401
Final Adjusted figures:
PS3 - 93
DS - 108
360 - 144
Wii - 325
PSP - 353
Yes the PSP was bad , mostly because of big adjustments after I had stopped taking prediction edits, but I would say the Wii was the bigger failure... true there were also some adjustments to the Wii at the same time as for PSP, but they were not as large, and I think even if people had been able to use their hindsight they would not have expected the Wii to do so well.
