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Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox 360 Vs. Playstation 3 2012 - *February* Update

Seece on 15 December 2011
pezus said:
Seece said:
pezus said:
Seece said:
postofficebuddy said:

As others have pointed out all this talk is kind of superfluous for now because potential adjustments can change things rather significantly. But here's something worth thinking about. PS3 was up 70% YOY in November NPD, 360 was up 20%. And we also know that PS3 is undertracked by about 200k in Aus/NZ since Sony said that Australian NPD had PS3 at 1.4 million a couple months ago. And in regards to the impact of the FFXIII-2 bundle, I don't think anyone expected it to boost PS3 to the same level as the FFXIII bundle did Famitsu are still expecting FFXIII-2 to sell 1 million this year.


Thanks to Sony giving a forecast we can determine everything from that and NPD.

Q4/Q1 expectations

MS are expecting growth in Europe, that's all we know on that front. So we use the 6.3 base figure from last Q4. They've had 400k growth in the US from Oct & Nov. That's 6.7 + whatever growth we see in Dec (which will be crucial). If it's only up the same amount it was from Nov - Dec transition last year, that's 2.2m, up 500k yoy, so 7.2. (again we know MS are expecting growth, that could be as low as 100k though. It could be as high as 3 mill, however, as the DS showed similar growth from Nov's passed - 1.7m Nov to 3m Dec and another similar year before (or after, can't remember)). I think most are expecting around 2.5m though. Which would be 7.5m.

Couldn't even begin to guess the growth in Europe and everywhere else in the world.

Another thing to note is the shortages they had last year, leading them to a much higher Q1 than they expected. Previous Q1's were around the 1.5m mark, this was 2.7, significantly higher. They were probably expecting growth even if they didn't suffer shortages over Q4/Q1, given Kinect/Slim. I don't think anymore than 2.1m though, that's up 600k yoy (over 25%) more than Q4 in % terms. Given they were selling what was put out in Q4 last year, and the stock in Q1 was used to refill the channel (I'd say 500/600k of Q1 was for that purpose) they will be shipping that in Q4 instead this year. We also don't know what potential X360 had to sell last Q4 due to the shortages. Let's say they did ship 600k in Q1 to refill the channels, with the other 2.1m being what they would have shipped anyway. If they had the opportunity to ship that in Q4, it would have been higher than 600k, because demand would have been there Vs. Q1.

Lots of variables to consider, we might see little to no growth in Europe/WW. Smaller than expected growth in NPD Dec 2m~ thus underperforming. Or we might see the opposite.

Regardless, with 400k growth so far, possibly 1.1m~ growth in Dec (max I'd say), growth in Europe, and refilling shelves in Q4 rather than Q1, I do wonder why people don't think it's possible. If all those stars alligned (which is just as likely to happen as it is to not happen) then that suggests a Q over 8.3m~, 800k over PS3's most likely max figure for Q4. (Unless Q1 next year is down YoY).

Now I'm not saying that's how it's gonna pan out, I expect somewhere in the middle, and it wouldn't be unsurprising to see MS falter on their promise. I still expect X360 to be ahead though.

Last Q4 they shipped the same, but the X360 was clearly the more in demand console WW, hence the shortages. Without those it would likely have cleared 7 mill. This Xmas you would expect similar amounts due to the PS3 cut spurring sales. But MS has proven they can be up YoY without a price cut.

Growth in Europe? I don't see it and even VGC doesn't show it. It's down a lot YOY over there

That's what they've said, they're spending the most they've ever spent on marketing there this year, tailoring advertising to each country stating that they're not approaching Europe with a 'one size fits all' approach, as it's a textured region. Last year they were up 20% YoY. Don't assume just because it's a Sony dominated region they can't see good growth there, look at the US and the PS3. At this point even 200k growth helps them in their quest for #1~

Edit - I have the full interview if you're really interested

Well they also said 360 would be #1 many NPD's in a row but dropped it for their November PR. I'm guessing they think Kinect will become a huge hit in Europe like it is in the US but I just don't see it happening.

I believe there was another time they dropped the #1 WW thing then picked it up again the month after, will have to check. But yes you're right, perhaps dropping the #1 thing means they're not as expecting as they were before. I think they likely have realistic expecations in Europe, Kinect/360 wasn't massive there like it was in the U.S last year. It's not just Europe though, the cut price in Australia and Brazil/Latin America (and moved some production to Brazil so it's easier to get consoles out there) I guess that all adds up to some growth. Like I said 200k growth could make all the difference.



 

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XanderZane on 15 December 2011
pezus said:
XanderZane said:
pezus said:
kowenicki said:
pezus said:

Either way, if 360 manages to be ahead by something like 10-50k I wouldn't call that a win. I wouldn't call a PS3 lead by 10-50k a win either AND I'll wait until late January to see if there will be any adjustments, especially in Europe/Others because the numbers look a bit weird there in some places. A tie would mean though that MS were wrong all year.


Strange predictions happen... at least the MS one wont be too far off.    So MS may be wrong this year... Sony will be wrong forever with Kaz's prediction.

Hirai: PS3 can beat PS2

by Ben Parfitt 
Thursday, August 26th 2010 at 9:00AM

Share

The man standing at the top of Sony’s games business believes PS3 has shrugged off its stuttering start and is on course to become the firm’s most successful console to date.

Speaking in an interview with MCV, SCE CEO Kazuo Hirai says the aim is still for PS3 to outsell PlayStation 2 – a platform that has sold 146m units worldwide in a decade.

38m PS3s have been sold globally since launch in 2006. But Hirai is confident his flagship console can grow to 150m, and by 2016, too.

“The high point, looking back at our console business, has been PS2,” he told MCV.

“For PS3, that is one level of success we’d like to emulate and hopefully surpass at the end of the ten-year lifecycle.”

Already Sony has seen momentum switch in its favour, with PS3 sales up 57 per cent year-on-year. And the firm has high expectations for Move, which launches in two weeks.

But Hirai feels that in order to go a step further, the company must improve its international focus. He told MCV he’s restructured SCE’s HQ in Japan into three business units – console (PS3 and PS2), handheld (PSP) and accessories. And each unit is charged with looking after its businesses on a global scale.

“If it’s right for Japan it’s probably not right for the rest of the world,” he said, acknowledging that power has shifted away from its Tokyo HQ, which will now take a more international approach to business decisions.

 

“For PS3, that is one level of success we’d like to emulate and hopefully surpass at the end of the ten-year lifecycle.”

I don't see the problem? A man can hope. This is way different from what MS were doing. They weren't hoping, they were stating it as a fact that they'd be #1.

I think they were talking about the U.S. The Wii is still ahead of them in the U.S., but that could change within the next 2 years. Neither the XBox 360 or PS3 will be #1. Not sure why those execs are smoking. They still have a long, long way to catch the Wii.

Nope, it's pretty obvious he was talking about WW. And he didn't even mention the Wii or 360, let alone being #1. He's only comparing PS3 to PS2.

"38m PS3s have been sold globally since launch in 2006. But Hirai is confident his flagship console can grow to 150m, and by 2016, too."

The PS3 will never sell as much as the PS2. Neither the PS3 or XBox 360 will pass the Wii this generation. It's over 30 million ahead of it's competition. I doubt the Wii will be taken off the market anytime soon. Hirai is nuts if he thinks the PS3 will reach 150 million this gen. The next XBox will be launched in 2013, will Sony be ready?



__________________________________________

'gaming till I'm gone'

DakonBlackblade on 15 December 2011
XanderZane said:
I think if Microsoft had did a price cut the day before BF they would have won 2011 easily. Not sure what they were thinking. They shot themselves in the foot by not going with a price cut just before the busiest shopping day of the year. It'll be close, but they will probably fall short mostly due to Japan numbers which aren't relevant for the XBox 360. The XBox 360 should be like $50 in Japan right now. If I was Microsoft, I would be giving those things away at least once a week. Running contests where 500 people win an XBox 360. lol!! Japan doesn't care about FPS or Sports.



Why would MS do a dumb thing like that, they need to profit, it makes no sense giving awhay consoles and not profting...

Anywhay if the rumors are true and the nextbox is coming by the end of next year or beggining of 2013 and with the coming of the WiiU we can say for sure the 360 peaked this year.



postofficebuddy on 15 December 2011
Seece said:
postofficebuddy said:

As others have pointed out all this talk is kind of superfluous for now because potential adjustments can change things rather significantly. But here's something worth thinking about. PS3 was up 70% YOY in November NPD, 360 was up 20%. And we also know that PS3 is undertracked by about 200k in Aus/NZ since Sony said that Australian NPD had PS3 at 1.4 million a couple months ago. And in regards to the impact of the FFXIII-2 bundle, I don't think anyone expected it to boost PS3 to the same level as the FFXIII bundle did Famitsu are still expecting FFXIII-2 to sell 1 million this year.


Thanks to Sony giving a forecast we can determine everything from that and NPD.

Q4/Q1 expectations

MS are expecting growth in Europe, that's all we know on that front. So we use the 6.3 base figure from last Q4. They've had 400k growth in the US from Oct & Nov. That's 6.7 + whatever growth we see in Dec (which will be crucial). If it's only up the same amount it was from Nov - Dec transition last year, that's 2.2m, up 500k yoy, so 7.2. (again we know MS are expecting growth, that could be as low as 100k though. It could be as high as 3 mill, however, as the DS showed similar growth from Nov's passed - 1.7m Nov to 3m Dec and another similar year before (or after, can't remember)). I think most are expecting around 2.5m though. Which would be 7.5m.

Couldn't even begin to guess the growth in Europe and everywhere else in the world.

Another thing to note is the shortages they had last year, leading them to a much higher Q1 than they expected. Previous Q1's were around the 1.5m mark, this was 2.7, significantly higher. They were probably expecting growth even if they didn't suffer shortages over Q4/Q1, given Kinect/Slim. I don't think anymore than 2.1m though, that's up 600k yoy (over 25%) more than Q4 in % terms. Given they were selling what was put out in Q4 last year, and the stock in Q1 was used to refill the channel (I'd say 500/600k of Q1 was for that purpose) they will be shipping that in Q4 instead this year. We also don't know what potential X360 had to sell last Q4 due to the shortages. Let's say they did ship 600k in Q1 to refill the channels, with the other 2.1m being what they would have shipped anyway. If they had the opportunity to ship that in Q4, it would have been higher than 600k, because demand would have been there Vs. Q1.

Lots of variables to consider, we might see little to no growth in Europe/WW. Smaller than expected growth in NPD Dec 2m~ thus underperforming. Or we might see the opposite.

Regardless, with 400k growth so far, possibly 1.1m~ growth in Dec (max I'd say), growth in Europe, and refilling shelves in Q4 rather than Q1, I do wonder why people don't think it's possible. If all those stars alligned (which is just as likely to happen as it is to not happen) then that suggests a Q over 8.3m~, 800k over PS3's most likely max figure for Q4. (Unless Q1 next year is down YoY).

Now I'm not saying that's how it's gonna pan out, I expect somewhere in the middle, and it wouldn't be unsurprising to see MS falter on their promise. I still expect X360 to be ahead though.

Last Q4 they shipped the same, but the X360 was clearly the more in demand console WW, hence the shortages. Without those it would likely have cleared 7 mill. This Xmas you would expect similar amounts due to the PS3 cut spurring sales. But MS has proven they can be up YoY without a price cut.


You're overlooking the 'slightly ahead' comment. I've said it before and I'll say it again, PS3 will beat it's fiscal target. Sony already rather stupidly underpredicted they're PSP and PS2 target. Both of them will probably reach it with a quarter to spare. Looking at growth in Americas, and as I stated the undertracked AUS/NZ numbers I think 16 million this fiscal year is looking like a pretty distinct possibility. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see PS3 not too far off of 2 million in December NPD. Looking at Nintendo's charts 360 YOY growth in Europe seems rather unlikely, especially after seeing the lackluster effects of the price cuts in Spain and Australia. Unless MS pull some mysterious wild card to make sales exponentially increase in Europe in the last week of the year. And you mentioned MS's expectations for holiday sales last year and in Q1 of this year. Even if there hadn't been shortages in the USA last year it probably would have topped out at about 2 million in December NPD. if 360 is up 20% on that number like they were in November they would still only beat PS3 by about 500k-800k on what I expect PS3 to do in December NPD.



Proudest Platinums:
1. Gran Turismo 5
2. Persona 4 Arena
3. Wipeout HD
4. Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2
5. Super Street Fighter 4

XanderZane on 15 December 2011
DakonBlackblade said:
XanderZane said:
I think if Microsoft had did a price cut the day before BF they would have won 2011 easily. Not sure what they were thinking. They shot themselves in the foot by not going with a price cut just before the busiest shopping day of the year. It'll be close, but they will probably fall short mostly due to Japan numbers which aren't relevant for the XBox 360. The XBox 360 should be like $50 in Japan right now. If I was Microsoft, I would be giving those things away at least once a week. Running contests where 500 people win an XBox 360. lol!! Japan doesn't care about FPS or Sports.



Why would MS do a dumb thing like that, they need to profit, it makes no sense giving awhay consoles and not profting...

Anywhay if the rumors are true and the nextbox is coming by the end of next year or beggining of 2013 and with the coming of the WiiU we can say for sure the 360 peaked this year.

Dumb? You do realize that the XBox 360 has been profitting for well over 2 years now right. Even when they did their price cut previously, they were still making a profit. It's not dumb to what to get more sales then your competition on the biggest shopping months of the year. They could have easily increased their sales this year by 10-15% with a price cut at just the right now. Everyone was expecting one, especially after Sony cut their price.



__________________________________________

'gaming till I'm gone'

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Mummelmann on 15 December 2011

Wow, this is gonna be close!



thx1139 on 15 December 2011

Pending any adjustments with the Dec 10th number the PS3 leads the 360 by 740,965 with 3 weeks left.

Last year Dec 3 week 360 out sold PS3 by 45,789 this year 91,209
Last year Dec 10 week 360 out sold PS3 by 74,826 this year 150,968
Last year Dec 17 week 360 out sold PS3 by 163,638 this year ???,???..Im guessing it will double again
Last year Dec 24 week 360 out sold PS3 by 182,325 this year ???,???..Im guessing it will double again...Maybe more because this year Christmas is Sunday rather than Saturday so extra day of sales.

So comes down to the last week. Does 360 continue to beat the PS3 because of no shortages and deals or does the PS3 take the year. It will be close.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

DakonBlackblade on 15 December 2011
XanderZane said:
DakonBlackblade said:
XanderZane said:
I think if Microsoft had did a price cut the day before BF they would have won 2011 easily. Not sure what they were thinking. They shot themselves in the foot by not going with a price cut just before the busiest shopping day of the year. It'll be close, but they will probably fall short mostly due to Japan numbers which aren't relevant for the XBox 360. The XBox 360 should be like $50 in Japan right now. If I was Microsoft, I would be giving those things away at least once a week. Running contests where 500 people win an XBox 360. lol!! Japan doesn't care about FPS or Sports.



Why would MS do a dumb thing like that, they need to profit, it makes no sense giving awhay consoles and not profting...

Anywhay if the rumors are true and the nextbox is coming by the end of next year or beggining of 2013 and with the coming of the WiiU we can say for sure the 360 peaked this year.

Dumb? You do realize that the XBox 360 has been profitting for well over 2 years now right. Even when they did their price cut previously, they were still making a profit. It's not dumb to what to get more sales then your competition on the biggest shopping months of the year. They could have easily increased their sales this year by 10-15% with a price cut at just the right now. Everyone was expecting one, especially after Sony cut their price.


Theres absolutly no reason for MS to reduce theyre profits just to outsell the PS3, they are the leading console right now and theyre selling more tham ever, why hurt your profits ? Its pretty dumb almost as dumb as releasing the nextbox next year like rumors sugest and pretty much kill the 360 that can potentialy have a better year on 2012 tham it did in 2011 if MS dont anounce and release a new console.



DakonBlackblade on 15 December 2011
thx1139 said:
Pending any adjustments with the Dec 10th number the PS3 leads the 360 by 740,965 with 3 weeks left.

Last year Dec 3 week 360 out sold PS3 by 45,789 this year 91,209
Last year Dec 10 week 360 out sold PS3 by 74,826 this year 150,968
Last year Dec 17 week 360 out sold PS3 by 163,638 this year ???,???..Im guessing it will double again
Last year Dec 24 week 360 out sold PS3 by 182,325 this year ???,???..Im guessing it will double again...Maybe more because this year Christmas is Sunday rather than Saturday so extra day of sales.

So comes down to the last week. Does 360 continue to beat the PS3 because of no shortages and deals or does the PS3 take the year. It will be close.

Ppl still ignoring the FF XIII-2 limitted edition PS3 on Japan... the 360 next week will most likely have a smaller lead tham it had this week.



thx1139 on 15 December 2011
ethomaz said:
I expected Sony and Microsoft to ship almost the same this quarter... 0.1.-0.2m diff.

Maybe like:

Sony: 7.0m
Microsoft 7.1m

If Sony and MS simply ship what they have sold from Oct 1 through Dec 10 then add in what they sold last year the final 3 weeks.

 

  PS3 360
Oct 1 - Dec 10 4,247,299 4,837,672
Add in last years final 3 weeks 6,630,657 7,485,592

So this assumes that retailers will have on floor in storage the same amount they had when September ended.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.