well i thought that would be obvious when i was congratulating seece

it looks like i was i little bit misinformed though i thought that the gap was 800k week ending the 3rd as stated on the 1st page then would be around 650k ending the 10th.  I havnt been on much to follow things in the WW up and NPD threads and if they affected vgc numbers, b/c i ve also noticed people being banned when criticizing vgcs numbers but if vgc is going to adjusted accordingly to NPD then they need to go back to Dec 2010 where if you add up there 360 Dec US numbers you get around 2.2M compared to the 1.8 NPD released either that or im adding wrong.  With PS3s recent adjustments it gives it a better chance, i still think next week wont be a tie at all i doubt the FF bundle will do over 100k in JP im thinking HW will be a little higher than what it was for GT since SW sales shouldnt be much higher than GT

as for the week after that i would be surprised it the gap for that week was less than 450k and as seece said i like to shot for the sky so thats where the 500k+ came from.  I still think there as chance that things can swing to 360 with NPD and even when shipments come Jan so i believe it wont be over till then.  In conclusion if the PS3 does win out 2011 it will only be by a few 100k which wont really be a huge victory if you asked me

I thinking now it will outsell the 360 by ~500K.  While not HUGE, it isn't an insignificant margin.  Of course, that's before any adjustments are made.  But let's face it, historically speaking, adjustments from NPD and shipment numbers usually go in favor of the PS3.  Though, it's not so much a victory for Sony, as it is a defeat for MS.  I only say this because MS are the ones who claimed since June (didn't say it for November NPD, though) they would be #1 WW by the end of 2011.

@ toadslayer72

I can't speak for the whole VGC community, but personally I would say 360 should have to sell a little more than 1% over the PS3 for the year to claim a victory.  While that doesn't seem a lot percentage-wise, that will probably end up being ~140K-150K for the year.

As others have pointed out all this talk is kind of superfluous for now because potential adjustments can change things rather significantly. But here's something worth thinking about. PS3 was up 70% YOY in November NPD, 360 was up 20%. And we also know that PS3 is undertracked by about 200k in Aus/NZ since Sony said that Australian NPD had PS3 at 1.4 million a couple months ago. And in regards to the impact of the FFXIII-2 bundle, I don't think anyone expected it to boost PS3 to the same level as the FFXIII bundle did Famitsu are still expecting FFXIII-2 to sell 1 million this year.

^just talk about NPD
the reason of 360 up 20% and PS3 up 70% is because PS3's 2010 number was very low...
PS3 up 370k YoY is good i know,but 360 also up 330k YoY

Thanks to Sony giving a forecast we can determine everything from that and NPD.

Q4/Q1 expectations

MS are expecting growth in Europe, that's all we know on that front. So we use the 6.3 base figure from last Q4. They've had 400k growth in the US from Oct & Nov. That's 6.7 + whatever growth we see in Dec (which will be crucial). If it's only up the same amount it was from Nov - Dec transition last year, that's 2.2m, up 500k yoy, so 7.2. (again we know MS are expecting growth, that could be as low as 100k though. It could be as high as 3 mill, however, as the DS showed similar growth from Nov's passed - 1.7m Nov to 3m Dec and another similar year before (or after, can't remember)). I think most are expecting around 2.5m though. Which would be 7.5m.

Couldn't even begin to guess the growth in Europe and everywhere else in the world.

Another thing to note is the shortages they had last year, leading them to a much higher Q1 than they expected. Previous Q1's were around the 1.5m mark, this was 2.7, significantly higher. They were probably expecting growth even if they didn't suffer shortages over Q4/Q1, given Kinect/Slim. I don't think anymore than 2.1m though, that's up 600k yoy (over 25%) more than Q4 in % terms. Given they were selling what was put out in Q4 last year, and the stock in Q1 was used to refill the channel (I'd say 500/600k of Q1 was for that purpose) they will be shipping that in Q4 instead this year. We also don't know what potential X360 had to sell last Q4 due to the shortages. Let's say they did ship 600k in Q1 to refill the channels, with the other 2.1m being what they would have shipped anyway. If they had the opportunity to ship that in Q4, it would have been higher than 600k, because demand would have been there Vs. Q1.

Lots of variables to consider, we might see little to no growth in Europe/WW. Smaller than expected growth in NPD Dec 2m~ thus underperforming. Or we might see the opposite.

Regardless, with 400k growth so far, possibly 1.1m~ growth in Dec (max I'd say), growth in Europe, and refilling shelves in Q4 rather than Q1, I do wonder why people don't think it's possible. If all those stars alligned (which is just as likely to happen as it is to not happen) then that suggests a Q over 8.3m~, 800k over PS3's most likely max figure for Q4. (Unless Q1 next year is down YoY).

Now I'm not saying that's how it's gonna pan out, I expect somewhere in the middle, and it wouldn't be unsurprising to see MS falter on their promise. I still expect X360 to be ahead though.

Last Q4 they shipped the same, but the X360 was clearly the more in demand console WW, hence the shortages. Without those it would likely have cleared 7 mill. This Xmas you would expect similar amounts due to the PS3 cut spurring sales. But MS has proven they can be up YoY without a price cut.

I expected Sony and Microsoft to ship almost the same this quarter... 0.1.-0.2m diff.

Maybe like:

Sony: 7.0m
Microsoft 7.1m

pezus said: kowenicki said: pezus said: Either way, if 360 manages to be ahead by something like 10-50k I wouldn't call that a win. I wouldn't call a PS3 lead by 10-50k a win either AND I'll wait until late January to see if there will be any adjustments, especially in Europe/Others because the numbers look a bit weird there in some places. A tie would mean though that MS were wrong all year. Strange predictions happen... at least the MS one wont be too far off.    So MS may be wrong this year... Sony will be wrong forever with Kaz's prediction. Hirai: PS3 can beat PS2 by Ben Parfitt  Thursday, August 26th 2010 at 9:00AM  inShareEmail The man standing at the top of Sony’s games business believes PS3 has shrugged off its stuttering start and is on course to become the firm’s most successful console to date. Speaking in an interview with MCV, SCE CEO Kazuo Hirai says the aim is still for PS3 to outsell PlayStation 2 – a platform that has sold 146m units worldwide in a decade. 38m PS3s have been sold globally since launch in 2006. But Hirai is confident his flagship console can grow to 150m, and by 2016, too. “The high point, looking back at our console business, has been PS2,” he told MCV. “For PS3, that is one level of success we’d like to emulate and hopefully surpass at the end of the ten-year lifecycle.” Already Sony has seen momentum switch in its favour, with PS3 sales up 57 per cent year-on-year. And the firm has high expectations for Move, which launches in two weeks. But Hirai feels that in order to go a step further, the company must improve its international focus. He told MCV he’s restructured SCE’s HQ in Japan into three business units – console (PS3 and PS2), handheld (PSP) and accessories. And each unit is charged with looking after its businesses on a global scale. “If it’s right for Japan it’s probably not right for the rest of the world,” he said, acknowledging that power has shifted away from its Tokyo HQ, which will now take a more international approach to business decisions.   “For PS3, that is one level of success we’d like to emulate and hopefully surpass at the end of the ten-year lifecycle.” I don't see the problem? A man can hope. This is way different from what MS were doing. They weren't hoping, they were stating it as a fact that they'd be #1.

I think they were talking about the U.S. The Wii is still ahead of them in the U.S., but that could change within the next 2 years. Neither the XBox 360 or PS3 will be #1. Not sure why those execs are smoking. They still have a long, long way to catch the Wii.

That's what they've said, they're spending the most they've ever spent on marketing there this year, tailoring advertising to each country stating that they're not approaching Europe with a 'one size fits all' approach, as it's a textured region. Last year they were up 20% YoY. Don't assume just because it's a Sony dominated region they can't see good growth there, look at the US and the PS3. At this point even 200k growth helps them in their quest for #1~

Edit - I have the full interview if you're really interested

I think if Microsoft had did a price cut the day before BF they would have won 2011 easily. Not sure what they were thinking. They shot themselves in the foot by not going with a price cut just before the busiest shopping day of the year. It'll be close, but they will probably fall short mostly due to Japan numbers which aren't relevant for the XBox 360. The XBox 360 should be like $50 in Japan right now. If I was Microsoft, I would be giving those things away at least once a week. Running contests where 500 people win an XBox 360. lol!! Japan doesn't care about FPS or Sports.

They were/are being cocky with their claim for #1. Thankfully though MS understand profit comes before marketshare I'm glad now they won't make such a big decision as a price drop just to be first for the year.