I agree with you that next week won't be a tie.  MS should still have a lead of ~50K-100K.  But 500K+for the week after that?  You're joking, right?  You do realize for the corresponding week last year + the week of Chrstmas, the 360 only managed to outsell the  PS3 a combined ~355K?  Even with this Black Friday being one of the largest this gen (due mostly to early Black Friday deals), the 360 outsold the PS3 by ~366K.  And that was without the recent holiday boosts the PS3 is getting in the rest of the world.  Japan's boosts have only just begun.  Why would the 360 just come out of nowhere and score a 500K+ lead on the PS3 for just one of those remaining weeks?  It won't happen. 

Then of course, the last week the PS3 should have a small lead.  MS may get lucky and be able to cut that lead to a basic tie, but that's all it can hope for.

That was the entire basis on why I thought it would happen. Unlike you I don't shoot in the air and hope for a win, it's exactly why I said it's fesible MS are wrong and they lose the year, and that I wouldn't 100% agree with them if they revealed why they're going to win if they gave some crap excuse.

I don't know its going to be close but PS3 wins by a slim margin.

Man, so much has happened while I was gone (was hunting in the sticks. no internet). So from the look of things PS3 had a pretty big Black Friday just as I predicted. Although PS3 beating Wii for the month in the USA was genuinely shocking. Anyway, going by thismeintiel's thread:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=135984&page=1
360 needs to outsell PS3 by an average of around 400k per week between the 11th and 24th. With FFXIII-2 releasing that seems pretty unlikely. I suppose it will be interesting to see how things play out.

OK so there is one thing that came to mind today when I was thinking about this. Anyone remember a while back when "statistical tie" was being mentioned repeatedly in the weekly number threads? Testicular pie maybe ring a bell? Well all this talk of "just barely" and "slim margin" brings the question of the statistical tie angle. I don't remember the % by which one had to win by to actually be considered a win. I remember there was a % just not what it was. And is this even still in play? Was that always just a VGC thing? Does MS consider finishing 5000 consoles ahead a victory or 5000 behind a loss?

I'm sure MS would consider being ahead by any number a victory.  However, it looks like the gap will be ~500K or so in the PS3's favor at the end of the year.  I think this is one of the reasons we didn't see them mention being #1 WW in the November NPD response.

PS3 numbers were adjusted up, not sure by how much but it seens like quite a bit as the year-to-date bar graphs now show a gap of 1 million in favor of the PS3, so probably 150k+ up.

I realy dont see the 360 overtaking the PS3.

But do you remember what I'm referring to about statistical tie? If so, what were the percentages that the VGC community was using to determine a winner?

I need to tag this thread (keep looking for it, not always finding it).
But, as I am here, OT:
Somewhere back in the thread pages Seece said something like this: "we (the site) expect the 360 to outsell the PS3 each following week by between 200k and 400k". Since that is clearly not happening, I don't see how the 360 can pull it off.
Also, some people tend to underestimate the PS3 price cut effect, just because in the US there seams to not be much of it (for which, if I'd be a Sony shareholder I'd be really pissed), but it does have an effect which amplifies the closer we are to the biggest week of the year, or so It appears to me.

nah

don't use year to date

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4339956