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Forums - Sales Discussion - 3rd Quarter 2011 Shipment Predictions

PS3 - 2.2M
360 - 2M
Wii - 1.5M
PSP - 1.1M
DS - 1.5M
3DS - 2.5M
PS2 - 1M




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kowenicki said:

PS3 2.5m or even more (3.0m isnt out of the question)... you have to think they exepcted a bigger boost from price cut.
360 1.9m
Wii 1.5m

BUT... I think PS3 will reduce 360 lead in shipments for this qtr and next but that 360 will then increase lead as PS3 shipment to sales prove too optimistic.

Interesting note, anything below 2.0 for 360 this Q, would prove their worst Q3 since 2006 (and their 2nd worst Q3 since 360 released)

You think PS3 will close the gap next Q?



 

kowenicki said:
@Seece

I just think Sony EXPECT to sell more due to the price cut. They may fail in that and this will reflect in shipments for the first two quarters next year.

Well, I dunno I have to wonder what Sony and Nintendo are wondering about what Microsoft are planning, and if they regret it. (cutting early)

I expect a high Q from Sony because Q3 is usually big for them and in the 3.2 - 3.5 region. However, they expect to be up 700k in shipments this FY, so far they're down 600k, so over the next 3 Q's (inc the one just gone) they have to make up 1.3M yoy. I would be flabberguasted if they did more than 3.5M this Q, if they're flat though they still have 1.3M to make up Q3 and Q4 of their FY. If they're down then it just adds to what they have to do in the next 2 Qs

Last Q4 (Jan/Mar this year) they did 2.1, so how much further up can they be on that? It's unlikely to jump up above 2.8 as it's a relatively slow Q. So it seems they expect their gains from the Xmas Q. Meaning over 7 mill in the Q4 xmas Q, which would be their highest ever Q4 by 500k

I'll be amazed and congratulatory for Sony if they manage it, but 09 they had a $100 price cut and redesign, 10 they had GT5 and Move, this year they have a $50 cut .... this year seems the weakest to me ...



 

kowenicki said:
@Seece

I just think Sony EXPECT to sell more due to the price cut. They may fail in that and this will reflect in shipments for the first two quarters next year.

Os PS3 is selling better than VGC show . Who knows?



why such high number for 360?

isn t selling much less than PS3 thisd year?

i do not understand... this number all vgchartz selling number are so different form what people are saying in here...



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nice. can't wait for next quarter. should be interesting



I missed 360 by 0.2m... good .



Machina said:
ethomaz said:
I missed 360 by 0.2m... good .


0.2 ain't close enough to be good imo!

Of course it is... 0.1 is great and 0.0 is perfect .

Edit - Nobody predicted better than me .



ethomaz said:

Last quarter I was petty accurate... so I must try again

PS3 - 3.4 Million (Sony needs)
360 - 2.1 2.3 Million missed by .2m
Wii - 1.8 1.79 Million on spot

PSP - 1.6 Million
DS - 1.5 1.14 Million missed by .36m
3DS - 2.8 2.36 Million missed by .44m

PS2 - 1.2 Million

Updated with real numbers.

Pretty good prediction for 360 and Wii (on spot)... not so good for DS and 3DS.



Did everyone forget about this thread? Final results, although I didn't predict:

PS3: 3.7 million
360: 2.3 million
Wii: 1.79 million
PSP: 1.7 million
DS: 1.14 million
3DS: 2.36 million
PS2: 1.2 million

Jesus, almost a 70% decline for DS. PS2 is going to beat its projection with a quarter to spare, 160 million here we come. Overall it looks like the average predictions for 360 were slightly low. With the exception of Ethomaz most people were pretty off on PS3. LOL, are you flabbergasted Seece? DS was relatively overpredicted, although understandably. Sales are collapsing almost preposterously fast. I can't believe Nintendo revised their projection down to just 6 million. You're pretty good at this Ethomaz.



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