padib said:
Andrespetmonkey said: Not to mention. 7 billion people in 4000 years? From 4 people who are related to eachother? Come on padib. You're a smart dude. I'm no scientist and I'm only 15 but even I know that's completely impossible. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_evolution Human evolution is well documented and VERY well supported. |
I think you just did yourself a disfavor by basing the credibility of evolution on countering a population growth to 7 billion in 4000 years. To tell you the truth evolution has much more going for it than that.
But to give a defense for my point of view on 7billion in 4000, well here is my logic.
To start, you need to remember that population growth is exponential.
What was the population of the US 400 years ago? In 400 years, the country's population grew from virtually nothing to 300,000,000.
China's population went from 500,000,000 to 1.4 billion in 60 years (1950 to 2010). Do the math, or I'll do it for you. It's 900 Mil in 60 years. That's roughly a trippling in 60 years. Source http://geography.about.com/od/populationgeography/a/chinapopulation.htm
India's population went from 350,000,000 to 1.21 billion in 65 years (1947 to 2011). It's 840 Mil in 50 years. That's close to quadrupled in 65 years. Source: http://geography.about.com/od/obtainpopulationdata/a/indiapopulation.htm
What accounted for 850Mil of the population only 60-65 years ago, now accounts for 2.61 billion, in 60-65 years. That's 3-fold in 60-65 years. You 7 billion number just goes down to 5.4 billion. But if the phenomenon happened in two very distinct cultures of the world, I see no problem applying it to the population world-over. 7 divided by 3 = 2.33 billion worldwide in 1945. Puts things into perspective in my book. Is my guess right? Let's see.
Well, to start, Google says that, in 1960, the world population was 3 billion. That's 15 years short of my calculation. http://www.google.ca/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_pop_totl&tdim=true&dl=en&hl=en&q=world+population
Let's take another source shall we? Well, the world census bureau seems to think my guess was right. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World-Population-1800-2100.png, and I promise this was not fabricated logic, it was just my hunch at the topic.
Well, according to the graph, the world population in the 1945 was between 2.3 billion and 2.5 billion. We were pretty close. Go back just another 150 years (what's 150 years over 4000 right), population of the world in the 1800s was 1 billion people. Care to revise your confident 50,000 years? "The real figure is around 50,000, give or take a few thousand."
If the population of the world grew by 7 times in 200 years, I'm curious how far we can take that trend. But as you said I'm a smart guy, and I won't ruin my at the moment very sexy logic with linear thinking. Given the graph above, the trend going backwards from 1800s is at a pretty low point, I'll use that one to trace back another 3800 years.
The graph seems to show that between 1800 and 1900 the population only went down from 1.65 billion to 950 Mil. That's almost a 2-fold increase, with the exact figure at 1.74x. I'll take that trend backwards 3800 years. Here we go, ready?
38 hundreds of years, with 1.74 decreases every hundred years. We get:
Century Population
1 950,000,000.00
2 545,977,011.49
3 313,779,891.66
4 180,333,271.07
5 103,639,810.96
6 59,563,109.75
7 34,231,672.27
8 19,673,374.87
9 11,306,537.28
10 6,498,009.93
11 3,734,488.47
12 2,146,257.74
13 1,233,481.46
14 708,897.39
15 407,412.29
16 234,145.00
17 134,566.09
18 77,336.83
19 44,446.46
20 25,543.94
21 14,680.43
22 8,437.03
23 4,848.87
24 2,786.70
25 1,601.55
26 920.43
27 528.98
28 304.01
29 174.72
30 100.41
31 57.71
32 33.17
33 19.06
34 10.95
35 6.30
36 3.62
37 2.08
38 1.20
Wow, that's pretty much bang on. Sadly I was off a couple hundred years there, as between centuries 38 and 37 the population only grew from 1 to 2 people in 100 years. Let's go the other way around shall we? I'll start at 6 fertile people (the sons of Noah), give a 4x fertility rate per generation (8 children per couple), and start the 1.7 trend as of 2 centuries later and see where we go from there.
Century Population
-20 6.00
-19 384.00
-18 24,576.00
-17 42,762.24
-16 74,406.30
-15 129,466.96
-14 225,272.51
-13 391,974.16
-12 682,035.04
-11 1,186,740.97
-10 2,064,929.29
-9 3,592,976.96
-8 6,251,779.92
-7 10,878,097.06
-6 18,927,888.88
-5 32,934,526.66
-4 57,306,076.38
-3 99,712,572.90
-2 173,499,876.85
-1 301,889,785.72
0 525,288,227.16
1 914,001,515.26
2 1,590,362,636.55
3 2,767,230,987.60
4 4,814,981,918.42
5 8,378,068,538.05
6 14,577,839,256.21
7 25,365,440,305.81
8 44,135,866,132.11
9 76,796,407,069.87
10 133,625,748,301.57
11 232,508,802,044.72
12 404,565,315,557.82
13 703,943,649,070.60
14 1,224,861,949,382.85
15 2,131,259,791,926.16
16 3,708,392,037,951.52
17 6,452,602,146,035.64
18 11,227,527,734,102.00
Interesting. According to the 1.7 trend we should have been at 11 trillion people. I'll try again, this time I'll add in a mortality ratio. Say at first 2 out of 8 children die or can't produce offspring. We get a birthratio of 6 kids per couple, so a factor of 3 per generation. I'll also reduce my period of mass fertility to 3 gens, so 1 century.
Century Population
-20 6.00
-19 162.00
-18 281.88
-17 490.47
-16 853.42
-15 1,484.95
-14 2,583.81
-13 4,495.84
-12 7,822.76
-11 13,611.59
-10 23,684.17
-9 41,210.46
-8 71,706.21
-7 124,768.80
-6 217,097.71
-5 377,750.02
-4 657,285.03
-3 1,143,675.95
-2 1,989,996.15
-1 3,462,593.29
0 6,024,912.33
1 10,483,347.46
2 18,241,024.58
3 31,739,382.76
4 55,226,526.01
5 96,094,155.25
6 167,203,830.14
7 290,934,664.45
8 506,226,316.13
9 880,833,790.07
10 1,532,650,794.73
11 2,666,812,382.83
12 4,640,253,546.12
13 8,074,041,170.25
14 14,048,831,636.23
15 24,444,967,047.04
16 42,534,242,661.86
17 74,009,582,231.63
18 128,776,673,083.04
Such a little tweak and we're at 128 billion by the 1800s. I'm really trying to get the numbers down but the 1.74 trend is really stubborn. I'll slash the middle ages, give it a rate of 1 (constant: a parent dies to give birth to a child), not that it's meaningful really, but there were epidemics during that time, and well we're trying to keep the numbers down. So for centuries between 1000 and 1400 inclusive I'm putting the growth ration to 1. I also threw a wrench in there and added 3 centuries where the population went down by half: 300 AD, 800AD and 1500AD. I also gave a slightly negative trend for 100BC. This is what I got:
Century Population
-20 6.00
-19 162.00
-18 281.88
-17 490.47
-16 853.42
-15 1,484.95
-14 2,583.81
-13 4,495.84
-12 7,822.76
-11 13,611.59
-10 23,684.17
-9 41,210.46
-8 71,706.21
-7 124,768.80
-6 217,097.71
-5 377,750.02
-4 657,285.03
-3 1,143,675.95
-2 1,989,996.15
-1 1,790,996.53
0 3,116,333.96
1 5,422,421.10
2 9,435,012.71
3 4,717,506.36
4 8,208,461.06
5 14,282,722.24
6 24,851,936.70
7 43,242,369.86
8 21,621,184.93
9 37,620,861.78
10 37,620,861.78
11 65,460,299.50
12 113,900,921.13
13 198,187,602.77
14 344,846,428.81
15 172,423,214.41
16 300,016,393.07
17 522,028,523.94
18 908,329,631.65
That's the closest I could get to 950Mil.
Anyway as you can see it's hard to keep the numbers down. Given that the world has been civilized for the past 4000 years, it's a fact, the birth trend can't easily be discouraged to lower levels due to poor survival abilities.
@incest. Yes, they practiced incest. Biblically speaking and as per Jewish history It only became forbidden as of the law of Moses. As for other civilizations one can only guess they followed a similar example. Evolution requires incest as well as of the point of speciation to humanity.
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