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Forums - Sales - If the Wii never existed, what would the market look like?

Avinash_Tyagi on 04 January 2008
CB said:
This is kind of an obsolete thread. It's like asking "What if there never had been a Playstation".. :p

 Sony's entrance was good for one thing, it got Nintendo to create the Wii



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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CB on 04 January 2008

Hmm, I think a more interesting question would be.. What if Nintendo had never existed...?



 2008 Predictions:


Wii: 44 Million
Xbox360: 25 Million
PS3: 22 Million

DS: 90 Million
PSP: 37 Million
Avinash_Tyagi on 04 January 2008

No VGchartz



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Shissy on 04 January 2008

North America

1/5 of Wii's sales would go to ps3. +1.7million sales to PS3
3/5 of Wii's sales would go to 360. (360 is the next best thing to Wii in NA) +5.1million sales to 360
1/5 of Wii's sales would disappear. (Casuals) -1.7million sales from the market

Japan

3/5 of Wii's sales go to PS3. (Japans 2nd favourite console) +3million sales to PS3
1/5 of Wii's sales would go to 360. (Probably less but meh) +1million sales to 360
1/5 of Wii's sales would disappear. (Casuals) -1million sales from the market

Europe\Others

2/5 of Wii's sales would go to PS3. (Probably would go to PS3 a little bit more but w\e) +2.5million sales to PS3
2/5 of Wii's sales would go to 360. (Sharing is caring) +2.5million sales to 360
1/5 of Wii's sales would disappear. (Casuals) -1.3million sales from the market

 

So to sum it all up if Nintendo left the video game market:

About 4million sales wouldn't even be in the market anymore because of casuals not being into videogames.

About 8.6million sales would go to 360. A big boost in American.

About 7.2million sales would go to PS3. A big boost in Japan.

Xbox 360 would be at 24million sales!

Play Station 3 would be at roughly 16.5million sales!



Avinash_Tyagi on 04 January 2008
Shissy said:

North America

1/5 of Wii's sales would go to ps3. +1.7million sales to PS3
3/5 of Wii's sales would go to 360. (360 is the next best thing to Wii in NA) +5.1million sales to 360
1/5 of Wii's sales would disappear. (Casuals) -1.7million sales from the market

Japan

3/5 of Wii's sales go to PS3. (Japans 2nd favourite console) +3million sales to PS3
1/5 of Wii's sales would go to 360. (Probably less but meh) +1million sales to 360
1/5 of Wii's sales would disappear. (Casuals) -1million sales from the market

EuropeOthers

2/5 of Wii's sales would go to PS3. (Probably would go to PS3 a little bit more but we) +2.5million sales to PS3
2/5 of Wii's sales would go to 360. (Sharing is caring) +2.5million sales to 360
1/5 of Wii's sales would disappear. (Casuals) -1.3million sales from the market

 

So to sum it all up if Nintendo left the video game market:

About 4million sales wouldn't even be in the market anymore because of casuals not being into videogames.

About 8.6million sales would go to 360. A big boost in American.

About 7.2million sales would go to PS3. A big boost in Japan.

Xbox 360 would be at 24million sales!

Play Station 3 would be at roughly 16.5million sales!


 Unlikely, in fact not a chance, since prieces would be higher and people would stay away, price drops were in response to Wii



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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tibisor on 04 January 2008

This is the best topic i have ever seen on the VG chartz forum! congrats!
i just realized what a world without a nintendo would be like.

on topic, without the wii:
the gamecube would attain a cult status even bigger than the dreamcast
the ps2 would have been the best selling console this christmas
VGchartz would have one tenth of the users/visitors it has now

what would the kids be playing?
i remember growing up playing games on the NES and SNES and now I look at the PS3 or 360 library and realize that the best titles are not for the young ones.



Gordian Knot on 05 January 2008

Fewer people would think only Nintendo makes good games. Third-parties are flushing their brand names down the toilet for the next 5 years with each cheap cash-in, thinking Wii is a fad that will be over in a couple of years. But in a couple of years 60 million consumers will think about those brands, "Maybe I'll get around to renting that" compared to the high quality of Nintendo games (and Capcom). "Fool me twice..."



Avinash_Tyagi on 05 January 2008
Gordian Knot said:

Fewer people would think only Nintendo makes good games. Third-parties are flushing their brand names down the toilet for the next 5 years with each cheap cash-in, thinking Wii is a fad that will be over in a couple of years. But in a couple of years 60 million consumers will think those brands names are absolute garbage compared to the high quality of Nintendo games (and Capcom).   "Fool me twice..." 


 Nintendo is refrorming the market in its own image



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

That Guy on 05 January 2008

would there have been a reason to make this generation if Wii didn't exist? I mean really, the games coming out for Xbox360 and PS3 are totally doable in Xbox/Ps2 Generation-- it would just be a matter of graphics, right?

Now that's kind of moot point because I think Xbox360/PS3 were both announced before nintendo announced their system



celine on 05 January 2008
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Without Nintendo and the Wii/DS the industry would be in a death spiral

 I pick this one.



 “In the entertainment business, there are only heaven and hell, and nothing in between and as soon as our customers bore of our products, we will crash.”  Hiroshi Yamauchi

TAG:  Like a Yamauchi pimp slap delivered by Il Maelstrom; serving it up with style.