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Forums - Sales Discussion - If the Wii never existed, what would the market look like?

HappySqurriel said:

People who bought a Wii at $250 either own a PS3/XBox 360, or they wouldn't have considered a $400 gaming system ...

Rather than having news stories about how amazingly popular the Wii was this year, we would be discussing the death (and eventual collapse) of the home console market due to the slow sales of the PS3 and XBox 360.


Nonsense. The Wii proves the console market is still healthy. Historically, consoles sell well in the sub-$300 price range (with $200 being the sweet spot), and those that with higher price tags struggled at best, mocked for generations at worst (looking at you 3DO). What the struggles of the 360 and PS3* reflect is not the state of the market, but the arrogance of MS and Sony in designing and pricing consoles based on their own need to dominate the home entertainment market, rather than the gamers' need to play good games at reasonable prices.

 

*And I must emphaize this is much more of a struggle for the PS3; the 360 seems on pace to do far better than the XBox. 



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I'd still be waiting for a sub $300 console (I don't count the 360 arcade version).

Probably still be playing PS2 and GC.



I'd be well on my way to having scraped together enough cash for a PC upgrade and I probably would still be playing WoW.



"The worst part about these reviews is they are [subjective]--and their scores often depend on how drunk you got the media at a Street Fighter event."  — Mona Hamilton, Capcom Senior VP of Marketing
*Image indefinitely borrowed from BrainBoxLtd without his consent.

misterd said:
HappySqurriel said:

People who bought a Wii at $250 either own a PS3/XBox 360, or they wouldn't have considered a $400 gaming system ...

Rather than having news stories about how amazingly popular the Wii was this year, we would be discussing the death (and eventual collapse) of the home console market due to the slow sales of the PS3 and XBox 360.


Nonsense. The Wii proves the console market is still healthy. Historically, consoles sell well in the sub-$300 price range (with $200 being the sweet spot), and those that with higher price tags struggled at best, mocked for generations at worst (looking at you 3DO). What the struggles of the 360 and PS3* reflect is not the state of the market, but the arrogance of MS and Sony in designing and pricing consoles based on their own need to dominate the home entertainment market, rather than the gamers' need to play good games at reasonable prices.

 

*And I must emphaize this is much more of a struggle for the PS3; the 360 seems on pace to do far better than the XBox. 


 Without the Wii the console market would be dying as costs are exceeding revenue especially as games get more expensive to make and likely to go higher in the future, you can't sustain a money losing market



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

I'd definately go for the system Nintendo released titles for, I wouldn't even care if the packaging said xbox or playstation.



dlundh

Fair and Balanced - Casual Gamer Extraordinaire

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I would still only own a megadrive a gameboy and my pc.



 

 

 

 

how here's a crazy question:

What was your opinion when Iwata said that the console market was on the brink of dying? (I think he said this somewhere near the middle of the GCN generation)

I remember saying wtf, Nintendo, you guys are crasy, the game market is doing fine! I don't think anyone really believed him. Also, I remember reading a bunch of news articles saying that Nintendo was just being stupid.

Another question goes along the same lines:

What was your opinion when Nintendo said that games were getting too complicated and hard and instead they wanted to focus on "simplier" games? I remember saying basically the same thing: "wtf Nintendo, you guys are crasy." At that point I wanted more in-depth games with better graphics. Now I understand what Nintendo was getting at. But when they said that 3 years ago, I seriously thought that they completely lost touch with the Videogame market.



If the Wii had never been, the market would have slowly been swallowed up by its own stupidity. Games would have got bigger and bigger budgets and companies would take less risks, meaning every game realeased would end up being the fifth sequel to an already tired series.
Producers would be forced to take less risks and at the same time the market would have shrunk as consumers got bored of playing the 25th WWII FPS this year, with no innovation to show gamers what can be fun and for lesser companies to copy.

It would have been solely up to the PS3 to save the market (again) and at its silly price and obvious BD trojan priorities, it wouldn't have been easy.

I think Sony and MS owe Nintendo alot, purely for injecting life into what was becoming a very boring hobby for anyone who had been into it for a decade or so.

On a personal note, (which wasnt the topic's question by the way), I would have probably played my DS and PS2 a bit more and continued to play the GC for multiplayer, however even now, Buzz on the PS2 is taking a hefty chunk of our beer time.

Screw HD, we don't need you!



If the Wii never existed, Nintendo would have released the GC2 with more power than the PS3. The new crowd that the Wii has won will find their thing on the DS and DS will dominate the world even more and would already be at 100 million+ at this time.



      

   

 

That Guy said:
how here's a crazy question:

What was your opinion when Iwata said that the console market was on the brink of dying? (I think he said this somewhere near the middle of the GCN generation)

I remember saying wtf, Nintendo, you guys are crasy, the game market is doing fine! I don't think anyone really believed him. Also, I remember reading a bunch of news articles saying that Nintendo was just being stupid.

Another question goes along the same lines:

What was your opinion when Nintendo said that games were getting too complicated and hard and instead they wanted to focus on "simplier" games? I remember saying basically the same thing: "wtf Nintendo, you guys are crasy." At that point I wanted more in-depth games with better graphics. Now I understand what Nintendo was getting at. But when they said that 3 years ago, I seriously thought that they completely lost touch with the Videogame market.

 Anyone who paid attention to the rising costs and the stagnating growth and the wave of mergers could see it, its just that Sony and MS marketing had them blinded, even today many are still blinded.  Notice how talk of the industry was always in revenue growth, never in profits.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)