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Sqrl said:
phil said:
Sqrl said:
Just for the record, a lot of very wealthy Americans are already moving out of the country to various non-extradition South American countries. The rich have the means to pick up and leave, all you have to do is give them a motive.

This whole idea that 10% of people should pay for 90% of the taxes or whatever the percentages are is going to fail once that 10% says "F this!". I actually know people who plan on moving to Ecuador, they invited me to come down and help pick a house with them. These people aren't filthy rich either, together they make about 240k a year. Where did they get the idea? Other wealthy people they are friends with.

The idea that the minority pay for the majority is great so long as you're majority. Just keep on pushing these people away, lets see what that does to the economy.

Seeing as to how the top 20% of America controls over 90% of the country's wealth, it's only fair that they pay over 90% of the taxes. If they wanna move offshore and say "F This," then the state can go ahead and say "F you back." I'm sure there's someone who wouldn't mind doing their job for half their pay.

Uhm you do realise that a lot of the people we are talking about have job titles of "investor" right? I don't know many people who are willing to take over another investors stake at half the profits considering they would still be responisble for the same amount of risk. Which really this is what this boils down to. Investors are what keep economies from stagnating, put up money for new business, and new products, or ideas.

I don't think you really understand what the 20% of Americans do with their wealth that makes them so wealthy or you would have gotten this point to start with. If a meaningful percentage of that 20% decides to head for greener pastures then this country is in serious trouble. The simple fact is that if 90% of this countries wealth picks up and leaves there aren't going to be jobs for many of us. But to be clear I don't think all of them are actually going to leave.

I'm simply making the point that we need them a lot more than they need us and they are actually willing to pay more than the average person. Thats part of the disconnect here. Anyone who doesn't recognize that the rich need to pay more for the system to work is deluding themselves, so lets be clear on that. I disagree that they should have to pay more but basic economics dictates that they have to..they absolutely must. What isn't so clear cut however is the amount they should be paying.


@topic at large:

Here is my problem with the anti-FairTax position:

It seems the major idea behind the opposition is picking at the details, and I actually think this is a good thing if the intentions are fair-minded. A tax system needs to be picked apart and rebuilt time and again before it is ready to be instated. But what I don't get is that just about everyone (let me know if you don't) thinks that the current system is awful.

So, to me it seems that we should be looking for a new system, we should be tearing apart the FairTax and pointing out its problems, and we should then fix those problems and put it back together in a way that will work.

The key a lot of people are missing(imo) is to realise that not every market sector is going to benefit from a new system. A tax system is going to favor some market sectors over others and there is no way around that. A change in tax systems is going to require some people to find new jobs..again, no way around it. But neither of those things by themselves should be a detterant to not implementing a better system. Both of those things are going to cause short-term issues as the market rebalances itself in its new environment...but after that its life as usual.

Really I don't want to argue about the nitty gritty details, its enough for me to leave it up to the experts so long as everyone can agree that what we have now is simply atrocious. Hopefully they can come up with something a lot simpler than what we have now.

To everyone in the thread: Are you happy with the current system or do you think we need a new system (even if that new system isn't the fair tax)?


I know precisely what it is this 20% does: resource/capital allocation.  They don't actually make anything, they try to decide where it goes, that's all "investment" is.  They're a beauracracy by another name.  This is an important job and it needs to be done, but I don't buy your contention that they're the only ones willing and able to do it.  There's no reason to believe that if you told someone you'll give em a salary of a million dollars a year if they did a reasonably good job of resource allocation(taking into account downtuns and all of that, of course) that noone could do it.  In regards to capital flight due to rich people leaving, first off, I highly doubt it.  Even with higher taxes, the combination of the deal they have here along with the most robust economy makes that unlikely to happen on a large scale.  It's simply too difficult for another country to give the same incentives as the US can.  Second, you're assuming that the state has to stand idly by while an economic disaster happens.  If such a devestating blow to the economy were coming, you'd probably have large attitude adjustments favoring arrests and asset confiscations.

In regards to the FairTax vs the current tax system, I'm not of the opinion that the current system is at all good.  I do believe it's too complicated and further believe it allows for too many loopholes.  However, I believe the FairTax to be worse.  It may not be as complicated, but economically I believe it to be a clusterfuck. 



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Andir said:
Final-Fan said:
But that doesn't change the fact that the personal income tax is not one of the taxes contributing to the current price of goods. It shouldn't be, anyway, as far as I can see. So the prices would go up in response to the amount of the personal income tax (and other taxes not currently reflected in prices) being factored into prices.

But it is.  That 22% is what companies pay to accountants and lawyers to maintain IRS compliance.  You take this away and the company has less overhead.  It surely won't reduce the price of goods by 22%, but it reduces the cost of doing business.  The 23% is simply to replace the current bracketted tax system (that collects 28% or more from the citizens.)  In doing so, you reduce both the cost of running a business, and the cost of running the country (by not requiring a full blown team of IRS accountants and support) thus reducing the amount needed to collect in taxes and cut the amount needed to regulate and legislate the handling of money.  Over time, the 23% will likely fluctuate (just as sales taxes do / I'm also assuming this isn't fixed, sorry for the ignorance on this) to grant funding for whatever inititives are set forth or to spur the economy just like the current interest rates do.

So, in summary.  Replace the 28%+ tax bracketed system with a flat 23% tax that will cover the current expenses just as the bracketed system does.  After the current year taxes are collected, next years funding will be at hundreds of billions more agile (lower Treasury funding to cover tax returns), that can be used for things like debt repaying, social security, etc.  You reduce the cost of doing business by removing the tax compliance burden, thus enabling competitive pricing even more, or allowing the hiring of more people.  The next budget meeting would simply be, do we need to raise this flat tax by .1% to bring in more funding or reduce it by .1% to relax spending?

 @Entroper: thanks


The cost of compliance would go down, yes.  But what would the cost of tax evasion be?  Studies indicate that any sales tax that rises above 10% sees rampant tax evasion, and that's (I believe) the EXCLUSIVE number.  Even the VAT in European countries, which is much less tempting to tax evaders and much easier to detect evasion of, has a problem in tax evasion which becomes very serious at about 20%.  (Again, I think, exclusive.) 

Here's some food for thought: 
"Most importantly, the sales tax would generate tremendous opportunities for evasion. For example, in the income tax, the rate of evasion is around 15 percent. But income where taxes are withheld and reported to government by a third party has evasion rates of around 5 percent. For income where taxes are not withheld and there is no cross-reporting, evasion is around 50 percent. Since the sales tax would feature no withholding and no cross-reporting, the possibility of high evasion rates needs to be taken quite seriously."
http://www.brookings.edu/papers/1998/03taxes_gale.aspx

The 23% inclusive (30% exclusive) FairTax plan allows for a tax evasion rate of ZERO. 

P.S.  I presume you realize that "28% income tax --> 23% FairTax" =/= "5% less taxes"?



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Final-Fan said:
Andir said:
Final-Fan said:
But that doesn't change the fact that the personal income tax is not one of the taxes contributing to the current price of goods. It shouldn't be, anyway, as far as I can see. So the prices would go up in response to the amount of the personal income tax (and other taxes not currently reflected in prices) being factored into prices.

But it is. That 22% is what companies pay to accountants and lawyers to maintain IRS compliance. You take this away and the company has less overhead. It surely won't reduce the price of goods by 22%, but it reduces the cost of doing business. The 23% is simply to replace the current bracketted tax system (that collects 28% or more from the citizens.) In doing so, you reduce both the cost of running a business, and the cost of running the country (by not requiring a full blown team of IRS accountants and support) thus reducing the amount needed to collect in taxes and cut the amount needed to regulate and legislate the handling of money. Over time, the 23% will likely fluctuate (just as sales taxes do / I'm also assuming this isn't fixed, sorry for the ignorance on this) to grant funding for whatever inititives are set forth or to spur the economy just like the current interest rates do.

So, in summary. Replace the 28%+ tax bracketed system with a flat 23% tax that will cover the current expenses just as the bracketed system does. After the current year taxes are collected, next years funding will be at hundreds of billions more agile (lower Treasury funding to cover tax returns), that can be used for things like debt repaying, social security, etc. You reduce the cost of doing business by removing the tax compliance burden, thus enabling competitive pricing even more, or allowing the hiring of more people. The next budget meeting would simply be, do we need to raise this flat tax by .1% to bring in more funding or reduce it by .1% to relax spending?

@Entroper: thanks


The cost of compliance would go down, yes. But what would the cost of tax evasion be? Studies indicate that any sales tax that rises above 10% sees rampant tax evasion, and that's (I believe) the EXCLUSIVE number. Even the VAT in European countries, which is much less tempting to tax evaders and much easier to detect evasion of, has a problem in tax evasion which becomes very serious at about 20%. (Again, I think, exclusive.)

Here's some food for thought:
"Most importantly, the sales tax would generate tremendous opportunities for evasion. For example, in the income tax, the rate of evasion is around 15 percent. But income where taxes are withheld and reported to government by a third party has evasion rates of around 5 percent. For income where taxes are not withheld and there is no cross-reporting, evasion is around 50 percent. Since the sales tax would feature no withholding and no cross-reporting, the possibility of high evasion rates needs to be taken quite seriously."
http://www.brookings.edu/papers/1998/03taxes_gale.aspx

The 23% inclusive (30% exclusive) FairTax plan allows for a tax evasion rate of ZERO.

P.S. I presume you realize that "28% income tax --> 23% FairTax" =/= "5% less taxes"?


 OK Final, I think I have your answer about both Tax Evasion rates and the revenue-neutral status of the FairTax.

First lets start with the Tax Evasion question. This is a lenghty report called "The FairTax reduces complexity, compliance costs, and noncompliance" http://www.fairtax.org/site/DocServer/TheFairTaxReducesComplexityComplianceCostsAndNoncomplian.pdf

Yes, this document is from FairTax.org but it is accurate in its portrayal of current noncompliance with the current income tax structure. You can take or leave its proposal of FairTax compliance, but it does raise one very interesting point: the number of tax filers under the FairTax would reduce by 80%. Thus you would only need a small portion of "watch-dog" agents to verify tax compliance.

Another note from that document is the total tax compliance costs of the current tax code. I know I have said this before, but it bears saying again. America, as a whole,  spends 6 billion hours and $265 billion in the costs to just comply with the current tax system. That is the equivalent of a 22.2% surcharge on the amount of income taxes collected! For another comparison the $265 billion is costs to comply is roughly the same amount as America has given in charitible donations... that is messed up. (for source see previous posts)  Another document discussing only the compliance costs of current vs. FairTax is this: http://www.fairtax.org/PDF/WhatTheFederalTaxSystemIsCostingYou.pdf

Again even if you take their assertions with a grain of salt, you have to recognize that our current system is broken. Also note that the cost of collecting a retail sales tax currently costs businesses between 2%-3.8% of either the taxes collected, or the business' revenue (it wasn't very clear on that point). The point still holds that collecting sales tax is much less overhead than the current tax system.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

Now for the next topic, the revenue neutral claim of the FairTax. This document is posted on the FairTax.org website but is not calculated by them. The economists that have calculated this are very well respected and would have no reason to distort the truth (as some people might/could come to think). http://www.fairtax.org/PDF/Tax%20Notes%20article%20on%20FT%20rate.pdf

This document goes through the FairTax proposal and looks at the revenue of both the current tax code and the FairTax. It is extremely long and has lots of mathematical explanation of the FairTax and current tax code. It is not impossible to read through and understand (I am a testiment to that), you have to know basic algebra and have a strong mathematical fortitude to wade through all the different equations. In the end they calculate that the rate of the FairTax would need to be 23.82% to meet the estimates of FY 2007 current tax revenue. However that is assuming that the FairTax will not be a boon to the economy as they believe it could be. In which case if the FairTax increased the taxbase by about 3% the 23% would still be perfectly revenue neutral.



I want my WHOLE paycheck! I support the Fair Tax!

http://www.fairtax.org/

phil said:
Sqrl said:

Uhm you do realise that a lot of the people we are talking about have job titles of "investor" right? I don't know many people who are willing to take over another investors stake at half the profits considering they would still be responisble for the same amount of risk. Which really this is what this boils down to. Investors are what keep economies from stagnating, put up money for new business, and new products, or ideas.

I don't think you really understand what the 20% of Americans do with their wealth that makes them so wealthy or you would have gotten this point to start with. If a meaningful percentage of that 20% decides to head for greener pastures then this country is in serious trouble. The simple fact is that if 90% of this countries wealth picks up and leaves there aren't going to be jobs for many of us. But to be clear I don't think all of them are actually going to leave.

I'm simply making the point that we need them a lot more than they need us and they are actually willing to pay more than the average person. Thats part of the disconnect here. Anyone who doesn't recognize that the rich need to pay more for the system to work is deluding themselves, so lets be clear on that. I disagree that they should have to pay more but basic economics dictates that they have to..they absolutely must. What isn't so clear cut however is the amount they should be paying.


@topic at large:

Here is my problem with the anti-FairTax position:

It seems the major idea behind the opposition is picking at the details, and I actually think this is a good thing if the intentions are fair-minded. A tax system needs to be picked apart and rebuilt time and again before it is ready to be instated. But what I don't get is that just about everyone (let me know if you don't) thinks that the current system is awful.

So, to me it seems that we should be looking for a new system, we should be tearing apart the FairTax and pointing out its problems, and we should then fix those problems and put it back together in a way that will work.

The key a lot of people are missing(imo) is to realise that not every market sector is going to benefit from a new system. A tax system is going to favor some market sectors over others and there is no way around that. A change in tax systems is going to require some people to find new jobs..again, no way around it. But neither of those things by themselves should be a detterant to not implementing a better system. Both of those things are going to cause short-term issues as the market rebalances itself in its new environment...but after that its life as usual.

Really I don't want to argue about the nitty gritty details, its enough for me to leave it up to the experts so long as everyone can agree that what we have now is simply atrocious. Hopefully they can come up with something a lot simpler than what we have now.

To everyone in the thread: Are you happy with the current system or do you think we need a new system (even if that new system isn't the fair tax)?


I know precisely what it is this 20% does: resource/capital allocation. They don't actually make anything, they try to decide where it goes, that's all "investment" is. They're a beauracracy by another name.

Partially correct, they are capital investors and you can  call it "allocation" if you wish but people who allocate money aren't allocating their own money and putting it in jeaopardy of losing it so that name is absolutely wrong.  And there is no beauracracy here, investors are actually quite the opposite of bureaocratic and quite swift in their movements and decisions as they attempt to make their investment worthwhile and turn profits.

This is an important job and it needs to be done, but I don't buy your contention that they're the only ones willing and able to do it. There's no reason to believe that if you told someone you'll give em a salary of a million dollars a year if they did a reasonably good job of resource allocation(taking into account downtuns and all of that, of course) that noone could do it.

They are the only ones able..perhaps others are willing but don't have the capital but the rich are the only ones able...by definition almost actually.  As for this concept of a salary..are you proposing that people who invest money only earn a set wage from their investment?  If so expect nobody to invest ever again.  If you're proposing that we set up a bunch of "resource allocators" well then where the money coming from?  Again if it is their own money they are allocating nobody is going to be interested because that deal BS. 

In regards to capital flight due to rich people leaving, first off, I highly doubt it. Even with higher taxes, the combination of the deal they have here along with the most robust economy makes that unlikely to happen on a large scale. It's simply too difficult for another country to give the same incentives as the US can.

Doubt it all you want, in the meantime I will work on my passport application, I have a nice vacation planned this summer now..first to Jamaica then to Ecuador.  As for these other countries..your dead wrong...they have been setting up their system specifically to attract these people from the US so that they can stablise their economies and get an influx of cash into their system..see they understand their importance where as we seem to take them for granted. 

Second, you're assuming that the state has to stand idly by while an economic disaster happens. If such a devestating blow to the economy were coming, you'd probably have large attitude adjustments favoring arrests and asset confiscations.

Ok so what are you proposing, that the government arrest the rich and sieze assets of citizens who have done nothing but attempt to immigrate to another country? Besides the effect won't be felt right away anyways, a lot of these rich aren't looking at completely removing investment ties in the US...just moving to a country that has sane tax laws (although in some cases these countries have put together some real sweetheart deals that aren't fair to the lower and middleclass).  The problem will be when their tax dollars dissapear.

In regards to the FairTax vs the current tax system, I'm not of the opinion that the current system is at all good. I do believe it's too complicated and further believe it allows for too many loopholes. However, I believe the FairTax to be worse. It may not be as complicated, but economically I believe it to be a clusterfuck.

See I would describe our current system as the clusterfuck, and the fairtax as needing work.

Ok well I'll just repond above. 

If I am being honest I don't think you have a very good grasp on what it is that investors do.  The reasons they do it, and how much it accounts for the vitality of our economic system. The simple fact is that investment at its highest level boils down to risk and reward management...included in that is often setting up and executing deals and loans as well as running the businesses and in general get the business to the point that it is profitable...do you know the percentages on getting a business profitable from the ground up?  They aren't pretty...



To Each Man, Responsibility

"I lean towards a flat tax... flat like zero!"

 

This is what you'll get if you elect Ron Paul. It's far better than this FairTax bullshit. 



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I think the main idea behind the 28% income tax changing to the 23% "Fair"Tax and still being revenue neutral is a little misleading, since revenue would go down but that the costs of administering the tax code would go down as well to offset that. Regardless if the number were 28% sales tax would that really suddenly eliminate your opposition to it?



DKII said:
I think the main idea behind the 28% income tax changing to the 23% "Fair"Tax and still being revenue neutral is a little misleading, since revenue would go down but that the costs of administering the tax code would go down as well to offset that. Regardless if the number were 28% sales tax would that really suddenly eliminate your opposition to it?

 I assume it would ease one of his many problems with it.  And in arguements like this it makes more sense to go one issue at a time then have the random multiple issues at once arguements that are going on.  

 Once settled it makes sense to move on to his next objection etc.  As well as everyone elses next objection.



Well I don't think the objection should be the actual number. 23% and 28% are in the same ballpark, and short of decreasing expenditure they're not going to put into place a system that increases losses due to less revenue, so it's not really a point that should be being argued at this point, there's a lot other things potentially wrong with this system that do deserve valid criticism, whether or not it is as proposed "revenue neutral" isn't really relevant since obviously any final version that might actually get put into place would ensure that it is.

Of course politicians are always lowering taxes without lowering expenses anyway, heh.



DKII said:
I think the main idea behind the 28% income tax changing to the 23% "Fair"Tax and still being revenue neutral is a little misleading, since revenue would go down but that the costs of administering the tax code would go down as well to offset that. Regardless if the number were 28% sales tax would that really suddenly eliminate your opposition to it?

You are shooting at the wrong target.  So is Andir, I think.  The overall tax rate is not going to change much, just the distribution of it.  Currently, (made-up approximations inbound!) many people pay 15%, many pay 25%, and few pay 35%.  Now, all will pay 23%, and of a different 100%, as well!  The numbers will even out overall, it's not a tax cut overall.  It's a tax cut for some (rich) and tax hike for others (middle class, including upper-middle class). 

And no I would not support the FairTax, whatever number you put on it.  But 28% might be a more accurate reflection of the necessary amount to be revenue-neutral.  (A different topic.)

Let's put this aside unless we want to deal with it in full detail right now.  If you would like to do so, my posts regarding the FairTax's distribution of the tax burden vs. that of our current tax system can be found further back. 


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Final-Fan said:
DKII said:
I think the main idea behind the 28% income tax changing to the 23% "Fair"Tax and still being revenue neutral is a little misleading, since revenue would go down but that the costs of administering the tax code would go down as well to offset that. Regardless if the number were 28% sales tax would that really suddenly eliminate your opposition to it?

But 28% might be a more accurate reflection of the necessary amount to be revenue-neutral.  (A different topic.)

That would actually be way too much in taxes.  As it is now, people recoup some of the taxes paid every year in tax returns.  The IRS mails you a check for the amount you overpaid (and is a huge chunk of the Treasury's mandatory funding... it's some 200 billion a year if I read it right.)  This is probably the easiest way to see if you will be paying more in taxes.  Take your tax bracket percentage, figure out how much you get back, subtract that from taxes paid and you determine how much in general tax you paid.  Compare that to an estimate of how much in taxes you would pay throughout the year in a sales tax of 23% and you have your answer.



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