Final-Fan said:
The cost of compliance would go down, yes. But what would the cost of tax evasion be? Studies indicate that any sales tax that rises above 10% sees rampant tax evasion, and that's (I believe) the EXCLUSIVE number. Even the VAT in European countries, which is much less tempting to tax evaders and much easier to detect evasion of, has a problem in tax evasion which becomes very serious at about 20%. (Again, I think, exclusive.) |
OK Final, I think I have your answer about both Tax Evasion rates and the revenue-neutral status of the FairTax.
First lets start with the Tax Evasion question. This is a lenghty report called "The FairTax reduces complexity, compliance costs, and noncompliance" http://www.fairtax.org/site/DocServer/TheFairTaxReducesComplexityComplianceCostsAndNoncomplian.pdf
Yes, this document is from FairTax.org but it is accurate in its portrayal of current noncompliance with the current income tax structure. You can take or leave its proposal of FairTax compliance, but it does raise one very interesting point: the number of tax filers under the FairTax would reduce by 80%. Thus you would only need a small portion of "watch-dog" agents to verify tax compliance.
Another note from that document is the total tax compliance costs of the current tax code. I know I have said this before, but it bears saying again. America, as a whole, spends 6 billion hours and $265 billion in the costs to just comply with the current tax system. That is the equivalent of a 22.2% surcharge on the amount of income taxes collected! For another comparison the $265 billion is costs to comply is roughly the same amount as America has given in charitible donations... that is messed up. (for source see previous posts) Another document discussing only the compliance costs of current vs. FairTax is this: http://www.fairtax.org/PDF/WhatTheFederalTaxSystemIsCostingYou.pdf
Again even if you take their assertions with a grain of salt, you have to recognize that our current system is broken. Also note that the cost of collecting a retail sales tax currently costs businesses between 2%-3.8% of either the taxes collected, or the business' revenue (it wasn't very clear on that point). The point still holds that collecting sales tax is much less overhead than the current tax system.
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Now for the next topic, the revenue neutral claim of the FairTax. This document is posted on the FairTax.org website but is not calculated by them. The economists that have calculated this are very well respected and would have no reason to distort the truth (as some people might/could come to think). http://www.fairtax.org/PDF/Tax%20Notes%20article%20on%20FT%20rate.pdf
This document goes through the FairTax proposal and looks at the revenue of both the current tax code and the FairTax. It is extremely long and has lots of mathematical explanation of the FairTax and current tax code. It is not impossible to read through and understand (I am a testiment to that), you have to know basic algebra and have a strong mathematical fortitude to wade through all the different equations. In the end they calculate that the rate of the FairTax would need to be 23.82% to meet the estimates of FY 2007 current tax revenue. However that is assuming that the FairTax will not be a boon to the economy as they believe it could be. In which case if the FairTax increased the taxbase by about 3% the 23% would still be perfectly revenue neutral.