mrstickball said:
I was about to state that the future will be more than Tri-polar, but I am somewhat skeptical of some potential outcomes, especially militarily. The EU is certainly an economic powerhouse, but I feel they will be de-stabilized for awhile due to the Greece issue, and this will likely throw them back a few years - not to mention the EU is lacking in strategic capacity in regards to their military. Compared to China, India or America, they are certainly taking a back seat. SK has indeed tendered other fighters, but their future is through indingenous production: http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4709554 . Indonesia has pledged another $20 billion in the near future, and I am certain that other countries will seek out ties with South Korea - Taiwan wants new craft, and Japan has had major setbacks with their F-X program. Additionally, South Korea is arguably one of the most poised economies in the world. Bear Stearns anticipates them to have the 2nd largest economy in per capita spending by 2050, and if unified would be even stronger by then. The US has been involved in a lot of wars, yes, but not ones that have damaged ties with significant allies or made significant enemies... The Chinese have. Through a few moves, you essentially have 75% of Asian countries against China with only minor players still in their sphere of influence - Burma, Cambodia and North Korea.. None of which are military powers and have significant problems. China is starting to play into very questionable hands in Africa as well due to their food crisis. Although I think its a smart move for them, the long term effects may not be beneficial - as you've said, the more an empire meddles in the affairs of others, the quicker they lose. I think China is starting too early for that kind of thing, and will pay for it later. I agree that the US is suceptible to potential downfall. I just don't think we've passed the Rubicon quite yet. We have not had our Stamp Act of 1765 moment. |
Again I must respectfully disagree with some of your assessments. To say China has made some significant enemies isn't quite true. It has significant trade interests with pretty much all the countries around it's periphery and it won't be long before the Chinese Navy is capable enough to decisively win battles against it's potential rivals (except the US and maybe Japan and maybe one day India will have a first class blue water Navy). The US has in the past made powerful enemies such as the USSR as well. Also I don't think China is showing imperial ambitions yet, it's dealings in Africa isn't the same as European colonialism it's much more about securing resources and just general business and they are doing it in a very pragmatic way. They are not plotting to overthrow anyone who doesn't conform like the West does.
Regarding a multi-polar world I think the US will dominate militarily for a long time yet. Can't see a rival anytime soon but economically wise definately multi-polar and there is a limit to what military power can do (as we have seen time and time again). Where we could see the US facing challenge militarily is that low intensity conflicts bleed it dry while Russia makes more agressive moves in it's old imperial era sphere of influence and China in their's and basically it will force the US to spend ever more money on defense to maintain it's lead worldwide.
