mai said:
Will post more on massacre in Libya later.
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- On August 25th 32nd Brigade successfully ambushed rebel forces near Bin Jawad, eventually pushing them from Ra's Lanuf. The interesting part here is that it might be an indication of Khamis launching counter-offensive eastwards at the time of Battle of Tripoli in direct contradiciton of father's order. Seems like wise decision to me, oil is essential to survival in this war while Tripoli not so much.
- Multiple reports on 10k to 50k prisoners have been released, including those who were involved in terrorist activity.
- Multiple reports on ethnocide of Libyan black population. Not really news, there were numerous videos on YouTube of rebels killing so called Gaddafi mercenaries, who often associated with migrants from Chad and Niger, though there're more than enough local black people in Libya. The events lead to massive emigration of black population from the country.
- Algerian forces presence at Ghadames, Libya. Supposedely to secure themselves from spreading Islamists fighters to own territory, they've got long history of fighting them at home and not eager to multiply their troubles. Nevertheless Al-Qaeda accused Algeria of support of Gaddafi regime, on August 29th they've launched attack on military academy at Cherchell, Algeria.
The whole Algeria involvement in that mess is rather interesting. I'd assume that along Syria it'd the next target of "liberation" process and they clearly understand the situation, doubt everything will go as smooth as it was with Libya or at least exactly according to Lybian scenario (though to call 6 months of this mess "smooth" that's probably not right), since:
- Both Algeria and Syria are much more tougher nuts to crack military. Europeans just won't make it completely on their owns, which war at Libya demonstrated perfectly. So without strong US involvement I don't think there'd any direct attack at Algeria, but rise of terrorist activity coming from Libya is almost a given. In case of Syria I see more parties would like to take conflict to the next stage, but, well, god knows how long it'd take for coalition to prepare (e.g. it took about a year before invasion in Iraq). A strong involvement of Israel is essential first and foremost as springboard for attack.
- Political situations in both cases are different. Libyan scenario won't work for Algeria in UN like it did previously, but ignoring UN isn't smth unprecedented after all. In case of Syria I'm sure Russia, Iran and probably someone else will be supportive to Assad, furthermore Iran in case of assult will take appropriate actions.