Here are the current standings for 2011. And here is 2010.
Wii Sports is currently at 3.9M, as we can see from this thread Wii sold about 10 million from this point to the end of the year, last year (added 2 weeks for August) now Wii is expected to be down yoy, moderately. Wii Sports seems to be selling over the last two weeks, the exact rate of 40k units per 100k units of HW. However that ratio should fall closer to christmas. I would put Wii selling about 8 mill from now till the end of the year (of course you can disagree, if so please do the equation 40k per 100kHW to your Wii prediction), so that's around 3.2 million more Wii Sports sold, 7.1 million total.
Mario Kart Wii is now bundled and is doing around 72k per 100k units of hardware, if we go with the 8 mill HW figure for Wii again this puts it at 5.76M, + 2.1 it's already done and that comes out at 7.86 million total.
Wii Sports Resort is another bundled Wii game, it's doing around 65k for every 100k HW, that's 5.2 million for the rest of the year + 3.65 mill it's already done = 8.85 million total. (highest selling wii game for the year)
Call of Duty Modern Warfare 3 X360 should follow a similar path to Black Ops, give or take a few hundred K either way (likely more rather than less) as we have nothing to suggest otherwise other than Pre orders being up. So that's around 10.7 million units total.
Call of Duty Modern Warfare 3 PS3 same for the X360 version, 8.5 million units total.
Pokemon: Black & White already at 6.9 million this year, if it maintains at the current rate it'll hit 8.4 million. However that's not factoring in a christmas boost, but what 3DS price cut effect. 8.5/9 million total. agree? disagree?
Kinect Adventures, oh boy this is gonna cause divide. I'll try and look at it from both (logical viewpoints) all we really have to go on so far is that Microsoft expect to be 1st WW this year, and from that it's obvious Kinect will be the pusher over the holiday. Predictions for end of year range from all the way from 15 million to 25 million. On the optimistic side we can say, ok, Kinect will be bigger this holiday, due to whatever Microsoft has planned. And it does better and ships 10 mill (9 mill actually sold), on top of the 3.2 million it's sold so far this year that puts it at 12.2 million. An average prediction would be the same as last holiday, 8 mill. So that's 10.2 million, and a pessmisitic prediction would be 2 mill less, 6 million, that puts it at 8.2 million. The range is far too big depending on what Microsoft plan over the holiday, I guess time will tell.
Gears of War 3, most seem to agree it'll end 2011 around 6 million total. However this could be optimistic as it's a big leap over Gears 2 holiday (4.3) that was launched in November however, perhaps the extra 6 weeks and hype will give it a good boost, perhaps it'll perform on par with Halo: Reach which sold 7.5M end of 2010.
Uncharted 3, the second sold 2.7 million end of year, take from that what you will. It's unlikely it'll be lower, but some have it at extremes of 4 million units plus. I think 3 million total is a fair prediction, but if the quality is there a lot of late U2 buyers could jump on ship and it could reach that 4 mill.
Zelda: Skyward Sword, all we have to go on is remake that came out years ago. Wii doesn't have a lot of SW this holiday, so this will do well with Nintendo's fans, but it isn't very casual. Twilight Princess has sold around 6 million to date, around 2 million in its first holiday (which was the Wii's launch) it's one of the last games to release this year, and will only have 6/7 weeks worth of data so bare that in mind.
Halo Combat Evolved: Anniversary is a tough one to go on, on the plus side it's Halo. It's $40. That said it's just a remake with little to entice multiplayer fans, and it comes out just after Modern Warfare 3. I guess ODST is a good guide to go on, selling 4.5 million by the end of it's year. It was released in September, but it was also $60 which pissed off a lot of Halo fans. I can't see it wildly going either way, so 3 million to 5 million range end of 2011, 4 million total.
Just Dance 2 is already at 3.1 million sold for the year, it's selling selling roughly 50k a week however so could climb to 4 million total by the end of the year.
Just Dance 3, the prequel sold 4.8 million in just 12 weeks/end of 2010, despite this being multiplatform now, I don't think PS360 will steal a lot of sales. At worst lower holiday Wii sales, the franchise getting old and not offering much new, and multiplatform (Kinect will be its main enemy) could see it do around 3.5 million for the holiday. Or it could do better and surpass 5 million. I think a slight dip in sales is most likely, so around 4.2 million total.
Wii Fit Plus is at 2.4 million so far this year, at the current rate it could 3.5 million total by the end of the year
Mario Kart 7 3DS, MK7 has the benefit of 3DS building up a userbase before it hits this holiday, a lot of them pining for games! With the price cut, and being the sequel to the huge MKDS, this'll sell bucketloads. I really can't put a figure on this so feel free to help me out. As a reference Mario Kart DS sold around 2.8 million in its first holiday.
The rest, Battlefield, Skyrim and Assassins Creed should all sell well but their sales are split between PS360 and so won't be huge sku by sku.
From the info above what do you think the top ten order will be for 2011?
