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Forums - Movies Discussion - Weekend Estimates (Apes > The Help > FD5)

TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count /Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week #
1 1 Rise of the Planet of the Apes Fox $27,500,000 -49.8% 3,691 +43 $7,451 $104,876,000 $93 2
2 N The Help BV $25,525,000 - 2,534 - $10,073 $35,399,000 - 1
3 N Final Destination 5 WB (NL) $18,400,000 - 3,155 - $5,832 $18,400,000 - 1
4 2 The Smurfs Sony $13,500,000 -34.8% 3,427 +32 $3,939 $101,546,000 $110 3
5 N 30 Minutes or Less Sony $13,000,000 - 2,888 - $4,501 $13,000,000 - 1
6 3 Cowboys & Aliens Uni. $7,613,000 -51.6% 3,310 -444 $2,300 $81,476,000 $163 3
7 5 Captain America: The First Avenger Par. $7,125,000 -45.3% 2,835 -785 $2,513 $156,885,000 $140 4
8 7 Crazy, Stupid, Love. WB $6,930,000 -42.3% 2,635 -385 $2,630 $55,402,000 $50 3
9 6 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $6,875,000 -44.8% 2,414 -761 $2,848 $356,961,000 - 5
10 4 The Change-Up Uni. $6,219,000 -54.0% 2,913 - $2,135 $25,751,000 $52 2

 



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Weekend Predictions: Will New Releases Conquer Apes?

 

There are four wide releases opening this week, but unless one of them is a surprise hit, I think it's safe to say that summer unofficially ends this weekend. That's not to say the films opening this weekend are all destined to bomb and most should at least become solid midlevel hits, but odds are Rise of the Planet of the Apes will retain top spot on the chart. Unfortunately, this weekend last yearwe did have a surprise hit and there's almost no chance any film this year will match The Expendables' opening and that could mean 2011's winning streak will come to an end. On the other hand, there's a lot more depth this time around and since the four wide releases share very little crossover appeal, they might all reach their potential and that might be enough to eek out a win.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes is looking to become the 19th or 20th film of 2011 to reach $100 million at the box office. (There are two films that should cross that milestone this weekend and The Smurfs might get there first.)Excellent reviews and the relatively weak competition have led some to believe it will avoid a 50% drop-off. That would be amazing and would suggest the potential to top the 2001 version of Planet of the Apes by the time its theatrical run is over. However, the market has changed too much since then, and I don't think the reviews / relatively weak competition will be enough to prevent a 50% drop-off. In fact, a 60% drop-off is not completely out of the question either, giving the film a range of $22 million to $27 million. I do think it will finish on the high end, and I'm going with $26 million over the weekend.

The new release with the best shot at topping Rise of the Planet of the Apes isFinal Destination 5, but while it may be close, I think it will fall just short. The Final Destination opened with more than $27 million, so if this film merely sells the same number of tickets, it should earn first place with relative ease. However, that film was one of the first of this genre to open in 3-D, so it had the novelty factor to help it out. The novelty of 3-D films has long since worn off. Also, it's competition was much weaker with fewer new releases and weaker holdovers. On the other hand, early reviews for this film are about twice as positive as the previous film's reviews were, but I do need to emphasize the word "early" and by the time the weekend is over, that might change. If is doesn't collapse, and perhaps climbs back over the overall positive level, then maybe word-of-mouth will help the film earn $30 million over the weekend. Opening with between $20 million and $25 million is more likely and I'm going with $24 million.

At the beginning of the month, I figured 30 Minutes Or Less would open with just over $20 million, now it seems just under $20 million is more likely. Early reviews were not bad, but they have since slumped to 46% positive and they are currently the weakest of the four wide releases. Also, the buzz isn't growing like it should. Finally, the flood of R-rated comedies has probably over-saturated the market and after The Change-Up struggled, it's more likely this film will follow suit. There's a chance it could challenge for second place with $25 million, but it could also bomb with less than $15 million. $18 million is a lot more likely than either extreme.

The Help opened on Wednesday, but we don't have opening day box office numbers yet. It likely won't do a huge amount of business on Wednesday, as its target audience are not likely to rush out to see a movie opening day. They are much more likely to wait a bit, read reviews and listen to the word-of-mouth. Fortunately, that should help the film going forward, as the reviews are quite strong. Look for just over $4 million on Wednesday, just under $3 million on Thursday, and $17 million over the weekend. But thanks to its reviews, its target audience, and the Wednesday opening, it should have the best legs of the bunch. Last minute update: Wednesday's numbers were better than expected and the film opened with more than $5 million, so I'm bumping my prediction to $19 million, which might be enough for third place.

The Smurfs is looking to reach $100 million over the weekend, and it does have the potential to get there. By the end of Thursday, it should have between $88 million and $89 million in the bank, while over the weekend it should pull in between $12 million and $13 million. Given its surprising success, it's not a shock that The Smurfs 2 has been announced and it even has a release date, August 3, 2013.

The final wide release of the week is Glee Live 3D, although it's not really opening truly wide, with a debut of under 2000 theaters. The consensus for the film's box office opening is between $7 million and $10 million, but my gut is telling me this could be a surprise hit. The TV show, Glee, is unbelievably popular and there could be a flood of fans rushing to theaters to see the film's limited run. Or they could say, 'Meh. We can see it on TV for free.' Early reviews are more than a little promising; they are 100% positive. Granted, there are only ten reviews on Rotten Tomatoes at the moment, but this is still good news. I'm going to predict just over $10 million, but there's a huge amount of uncertainty here. It could earn double that figure, or half that figure, and I wouldn't be that surprised.

 

Planet Apes: $22,000,000 - $27,000,000 ($26,000,000)

Final Destination 5: $20,000,000 - $25,000,000 ($24,000,000)

30 Minutes or Less: $14,500,000 - $25,000,000 ($18,000,000)

The Help: ($17,000,000)

The Smurfs: $12,000,000 - $13,000,000

Glee Live 3D: $7,000,000 - $10,000,000 (>$10,000,000)

 



Final Destination 5? Man...



 

 

 

 

 

 

‘The Help’ Bags Solid $9.8M in Two Days

Update: On Thursday, it was a photo finish between The Help and Rise of the Planet of the Apes for the top spot. Help made an estimated $4.333 million, while Apesdrew $4.329 million.

Tallying $9.8 million in two days, Help's Wednesday-to-Thursday drop was 21 percent, holding better than past August female-driven Wednesday openers The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (44 percent) andThe Princess Diaries 2 (33 percent) at the same point, but worse than Freaky Friday (19 percent).

Apes' opening week tallied $77.4 million, exceeding the comparable grosses of X-Men: First Class ($73.9 million), G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra ($76.3 million) andI, Robot ($73.4 million) and ranking as the fourth highest-grossing August opening week ever. Planet of the Apes (2001) racked up $96.2 million in its first week, or the equivalent of $135.5 million, normalized for ticket-price inflation.

Previously: On Wednesday, The Help debuted to an estimated $5.5 million on approximately 3,100 screens at 2,511 locations, claiming first place for the day over Rise of the Planet of the Apes' $4.9 million.

It's not unprecedented for a female-driven drama to make a splash in August, especially one based on a popular book. Julie & Julia and Eat Pray Love saw opening weekends of $20.1 million and $23.1 million, respectively, though they had traditional Friday launches. The Help's marketing campaign has been in full swing for weeks, promoting the movie as a feel-good ensemble comedy-drama, but the book's branding has been the star.

Three recent younger-skewing female-driven August movies fared better than The Help in their Wednesday launches, though two were sequels and one was a remake. In 2008, The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2had a $5.7 million Wednesday that resulted in a $10.7 million weekend (for $19.6 million in five days). In 2004, The Princess Diaries 2: Royal Engagement nabbed an $8.5 million Wednesday, leading to a $23 million weekend ($37.1 million in five days). The Freaky Friday remake in 2003 grabbed $6 million in its Wednesday opening on its way to a $22.2 million weekend ($33.1 million five-day).

In Box Office Mojo's "when will you see it" reader polling, The Help scored over seven percent for opening weekend, which was significantly better than The Secret Lives of Bees' 4.1 percent. Secret Life had a $10.5 million first weekend at 1,591 locations. Interest in The Help, though, wasn't as high as Julie & Julia (11.7 percent opening weekend) and Eat Pray Love (9.6 percent).

The Help's opening means it's in the mix for the weekend top spot, along with fellow new release Final Destinaton 5, but Rise of the Planet of the Apes is still the main contender. With a $73 million tally in six days,Apes has out-grossed X-Men: First Class and G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra through the same point. Based on past comps, its trajectory points to a $23-25 million second weekend. 



Forecast: Death Won't Take the 'Apes'

This weekend, four new movies enter nationwide release:Final Destination 5 haunts close to 4,700 screens at 3,155 locations, 30 Minutes or Less nabs over 3,100 screens at 2,888 locations, The Help cleans up on around 3,100 screens at 2,534 locations, and Glee The 3D Concert Movie warbles at 2,040 all-3D locations.

Final Destination 5 is the latest in the consistently popular horror franchise, and its marketing has hewed closely with the franchise's death thrill ride angle. Perhaps too closely, as the only differences have been in the particulars of the deaths and no new twist has been promised. With the last movie, The Final Destination, 3D was the twist, and that helped push it to a $27.4 million opening weekend in Aug. 2009. 3D accounted for 70 percent of its gross with 1,678 locations (out of 3,121 total). While FD5 has a larger 3D presence, 2,800 screens at 2,515 locations, 3D has cooled since FD4 and has not been the focal point of FD5's marketing. FD4 was also promoted as the final Final Destination.

Not helping Final Destination 5's cause is that FD4 has been regarded as the worst of the series, earning the series' lowest marks from IMDb users and Box Office Mojoreaders. Though FD4 was the highest grossing of the franchise at $66.5 million, it was the least-attended. This has been reflected in Box Office Mojo's "when will you see it" reader polling: FD5 scored 15.6 percent for opening weekend, trailing FD4's 21.1 percent and FD3's 16.3 percent.

The Help had a solid mid-week launch, grossing $9.9 million on Wednesday and Thursday. The female-driven book adaptation's been well-positioned like previous August entries Julie & Julia and Eat Pray Love and has rated relatively well in Box Office Mojo's polling, nearly doubling The Secret Life of Bees with a 7.9 percent score for opening weekend.

30 Minutes or Less aims for the action comedy audience that made Pineapple Express a hit in Aug. 2008, but its premise of an innocent guy who gets strapped to a bomb and is forced to rob a bank seems more appropriate for an action thriller. Then again, director Ruben Fleisher and company pulled off a commercially difficult genre mash-up with Zombieland ($24.7 million opening weekend). The "when will you see it" polling results haven't provided a good read on this movie's potential: it's sporting under 14 percent for opening weekend, which is less than half of Zombieland, on par with Adventureland and stronger than The Change-Up from last weekend (9.6 percent), suggesting an opening as high as $19 million and as low as $6 million.

Meanwhile, the Glee concert movie will have to overcome the stigma of "why pay for something that's free on television?" Not only that, it's something that's just a bonus to the TV show and not something essential that moves the story forward. It's strictly for the hardcore fans of the show, so only a fraction of the eight to 12 million people who watch first-run episodes weekly will see it.

After conquering last weekend with $54.8 million, Rise of the Planet of the Apes is the frontrunner to lead this weekend. However, its weekday numbers have not been encouraging for a strong hold, pointing to a drop of over 50 percent.

The Forecast, Aug. 12-14
1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $25 million
2. Final Destination 5 - $21 million
3. The Help - $20.5 million
4. The Smurfs - $13 million
5. 30 Minutes or Less - $12.5 million
Glee: The 3D Concert Movie - $8 million

Bar for Success
Final Destination 5 doesn't need to build on its predecessor to keep the franchise alive, but it still needs a solid retention. An opening in the low-to-mid $20 million range would be fine. Given its literary and crowd-pleasing credentials, The Help needs to come close to the movies that inspired its release date, Julie & Julia and Eat Pray Love. A decent showing for 30 Minutes or Less would be in the high teen millions, while Glee needs to at least out-shine the Jonas Brothers ($12.5 million).



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Friday Estimates

Rank*TitleFriday
8/12

(Estimates)
Saturday
8/13
Sunday
8/14
Monday
8/15
1 RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
Fox

3,691
$8,100,000

+87.1% / $2,195
$85,476,000 / 8

N/A

N/A

N/A
2 THE HELP
Buena Vista

2,534
$7,626,000

+76% / $3,009
$17,500,000 / 3

N/A

N/A

N/A
3 FINAL DESTINATION 5
Warner Bros. (New Line)

3,155
$7,340,000

-- / $2,326
$7,340,000 / 1

N/A

N/A

N/A
4 30 MINUTES OR LESS
Sony / Columbia

2,888
$4,850,000

-- / $1,679
$4,850,000 / 1

N/A

N/A

N/A
5 THE SMURFS
Sony / Columbia

3,427
$3,800,000

+53.6% / $1,109
$91,846,000 / 15

N/A

N/A

N/A
6 GLEE THE 3D CONCERT MOVIE
Fox

2,040
$2,725,000

-- / $1,336
$2,725,000 / 1

N/A

N/A

N/A
7 COWBOYS & ALIENS
Universal

3,310
$2,185,000

+64% / $660
$76,048,000 / 15

N/A

N/A

N/A
8 CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE.
Warner Bros.

2,635
$2,140,000

+70.1% / $812
$50,612,000 / 15

N/A

N/A

N/A
9 CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE FIRST AVENGER
Paramount

2,835
$2,015,000

+44.9% / $711
$151,775,000 / 22

N/A

N/A

N/A
10 THE CHANGE-UP
Universal

2,913
$1,923,000

+67.1% / $660
$21,455,000 / 8

N/A

N/A

N/A


Friday Report: 'Apes' Lead Again, 'Help' Rises Above Death

On Friday, Rise of the Planet of the Apes fended off the onslaught of four new nationwide releases to top the box office again. The Help won the dust-up between a tepid Final Destination 530 Minutes or Less andGlee: The 3D Concert Movie.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes packed an estimated $8.1 million, retreating 59 percent from last Friday. Though steep, the second Friday drop-off was less severe thanPlanet of the Apes (2001)I, RobotG.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra and X-Men: First Class, among comparable titles. With an $85.5 million haul in eight days,Rise is tracking ahead of fellow 20th Century Fox prequel/reboot X-Men: First Class ($81.4 million) and has out-grossed most of its key comps through the same point, aside from the last Planet remake's $104.7 million (or $147.5 million normalized for ticket-price inflation).Rise is now looking at around $26 million for the weekend.

The Help picked up an estimated $7.6 million on approximately 3,100 screens at 2,534 locations, landing smack dab in the middle of the first Friday grosses of Julie & Julia ($6.5 million) and Eat Pray Love ($8.5 million), the major female-driven book adaptations of the last two Augusts. Help, though, has shown greater initial popularity, since it opened on Wednesday, unlike those two movies, and has tallied $17.5 million in three days. For Friday-to-Sunday, Help is on track for $22-23 million.

In third place, death started to take the Final Destinationfranchise, which showed an opening decline for the first time. Final Destination 5 drew an estimated $7.3 million on close to 4,600 screens at 3,155 locations, and an estimated 76 percent of the gross was from 3D presentations on 2,800 screens at 2,515 locations. Predecessor The Final Destination, also in 3D, debuted to $10.8 million in Aug. 2009 (leading to a $27.4 million weekend). If FD5 follows a similar trajectory as FD4, it would wind up with around $18.5 million for the weekend, which would slot just below the first movie as the franchise's least-attended start.

30 Minutes or Less mustered an estimated $4.85 million on around 3,100 screens at 2,888 locations, which was about half of Zombieland's $9.45 million first day. The action comedy's start was in the league of Scott Pilgrim vs. the World and Observe and Report but a far cry from Pineapple Express.

Rounding out the Top Five, The Smurfs collected an estimated $3.8 million and boasted the smallest Friday-to-Friday percentage dip among nationwide holdovers (36 percent). With a $91.8 million total in 15 days, it has exceeded nearly all recent talking-critter comedies through the same point, excluding the Chipmunks.

Glee: The 3D Concert Movie ranked sixth with an estimated $2.7 million at 2,040 3D locations, which was worse than even Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience among comparable titles.

The movies ranked No. 7 through No. 11, Cowboys & AliensCrazy, Stupid, Love.Captain America: The First AvengerThe Change-Up and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, were all within $330,000 of each other, ranging from $2.19 million (Cowboys) to $1.86 million (Harry). All continued down their expected paths, and Captain crossed the $150 million milestone (in 22 days).



Weekend Estimates

TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count /Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week #
1 1 Rise of the Planet of the Apes Fox $27,500,000 -49.8% 3,691 +43 $7,451 $104,876,000 $93 2
2 N The Help BV $25,525,000 - 2,534 - $10,073 $35,399,000 - 1
3 N Final Destination 5 WB (NL) $18,400,000 - 3,155 - $5,832 $18,400,000 - 1
4 2 The Smurfs Sony $13,500,000 -34.8% 3,427 +32 $3,939 $101,546,000 $110 3
5 N 30 Minutes or Less Sony $13,000,000 - 2,888 - $4,501 $13,000,000 - 1
6 3 Cowboys & Aliens Uni. $7,613,000 -51.6% 3,310 -444 $2,300 $81,476,000 $163 3
7 5 Captain America: The First Avenger Par. $7,125,000 -45.3% 2,835 -785 $2,513 $156,885,000 $140 4
8 7 Crazy, Stupid, Love. WB $6,930,000 -42.3% 2,635 -385 $2,630 $55,402,000 $50 3
9 6 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $6,875,000 -44.8% 2,414 -761 $2,848 $356,961,000 - 5
10 4 The Change-Up Uni. $6,219,000 -54.0% 2,913 - $2,135 $25,751,000 $52 2


The Help did very very well! It will hit $100m eventually.



Go Smurfs and Harry Potter, almost 1.2 billion!