I was just going through my post history and looking for some old predictions to see how horribly wrong I was and I was happy to see that most of us were woefully incorrect on a number of subjects......
Prediction: Wii will hit 17-18 million consoles sold by year's end
Nintendo's First-Quarter Profit Rises Fivefold on Wii, DS Sales
Anyone still believe Wii Won't be ahead of Xbox 360 by the end of the 2007?
There are a lot of great material in here, so many people so very very wrong about so many things. Just about everyone got something wrong and something right.
Now a few of my favorite gems from my posts:
Here is a post of mine from a while back for US hardware sales. Thread Link
| August | September | October | November | December | |
| Wii | 420,000 | 490,000 | 390,000 | 1,080,000 | 1,920,000 |
| Xbox 360 | 210,000 | 380,000 | 260,000 | 550,000 | 1,350,000 |
| PS3 | 140,000 | 180,000 | 160,000 | 380,000 | 920,000 |
| Note: I am using the same month endings/lengths as TheSource |
| US Year End Totals | ||
| Console | Totals | Range |
| Wii | 4,300,000 | 4m to 4.5m |
| Xbox 360 | 2,750,000 | 2.5m to 3m |
| PS3 | 1,780,000 | 1.5m to 2m |
I was extremely close on my totals for the PS3 and the Wii but was pretty off on the 360. For the totals I was off on the Wii by 58k(~1%), on the PS3 I was off by 175k(~10%), and for the 360 I was off by 673k (~24%).
Oh and here is another great one from me: Thread Link
"Ultimately, I think we could see 4m in December alone this year (on the high side), and going with that high end number I think we could see as much as 7m in Q3 (Oct-1.2m, Nov- 1.8m, Dec-4m). But I think the likely scenario is something like 6m for Q3 (Oct-1.2m, Nov-1.6m, Dec-3.4m)."
The Wii has already crossed 4m in Dec and might get to 4.5m with Japan numbers. And the Q3 numbers are about 130-140k short of 7m right now which will easily be hit with Japan numbers.
So all in all my Wii predictions have been pretty spot on this entire time, and along with that I would say my stockpiling estimates were spot on as well (since they had to be or I would have been off).
PS - Feel free to post some of your own old quotes (with links please), I'm sure all of us had some pretty off the wall predictions so lets see how they turned out.
 |
| To Each Man, Responsibility |
