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Forums - Politics Discussion - Why isn't perpetual high unemployment inevitable?

nightsurge said:
Well, the automotive and transportation industries will never be fully automated. At least not for a very very long time, and transportation needs will continue to rise as populations do.

Also, programming, technical jobs, etc. are all on the rise and will continue to do so.

Eventually the companies that outsource their programming/tech support departments will revoke back to their own in house departments because the countries with which we outsource to are becoming more technical and self dependent and making higher wages.

What we will see as we go on is a shift of employment to new areas. Areas with which you did not cover, such as the more technology based, transportation, etc. Services will also not be going anywhere for a very very long time.

What areas?  There was talk of "green jobs" but how are they any different than what we have now?  What are the new areas to come along?  Programming is also on an endangered list, particularly in the west, due to outsourcing to India and elsewhere.  And for tech support, there is consolidation, and use of expert systems to address customer needs.  Also, there is a push for even simplier designs so that there are less issues.  You return troubled equipment.  Even now, there is Geeksquad doing reinstalls of systems.  As there is a push for cloud storage and virtualization, everything is centralized.  

So, where does the big demand in labor to come from?  



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Mr Khan said:
richardhutnik said:
Mr Khan said:
Oil will crash, 2 billion of us will starve, and most of the rest will go back to work in the farms

But seriously, the market should correct against that in the long run. If enough people become unemployed and the demand for manual labor drops low enough, employment will go back up, unless those losses come primarily from the minimum-wage sector, but no-one really makes a living off such employment anyway

Why would employment go back up, unless businessed have a demand for more labor?  If all sectors are automated so that it isn't needed, then where are people employed into?

Really nightsurge made a better reply than i did. New sectors will always emerge that demand manual labor. Who watches the watchers, who builds the automated machines? As more services become transferrable, more people can be employed meeting the world's demands, say, for something more complicated than the average Indian can do, call centers will increase in volume. We're going to need lots of people for the inevitable infrastructure swichovers that are coming: universal fiber-optic broadband, systems to meet the electric car economy or the hydrogen economy, plants to process algae and kelp biofuels to supplement the loss of fossil fuel.

There is a point when pretty much all services could become automated except the creative arts, but if it's a system of sustainable energy, then that'll just be a quasi-Communist utopia like they have in Star Trek, but that's way down the line

Which of what you described is quantifiably different than what is going on now? If it is more automated and improved, why would employers switch to a model that would require them to hire even more workers than they have now?  If you decided to allow everything to be salaried, then the employers don't hire more people, they just demand more hours out of workers.  There isn't more hiring going on.

Also, where does a Communist utopia ever enter into the scene?  You may get a dystopia where you have masses of people who are laid off and out of work and a system that says that is rigged where they have to do unpaid work for very prolonged periods of time, or they lose their place in line and don't ever have a chance of getting paid.  You know, like all the people who write free code on the Internet, particularly in the videogame business.



Another article on the global decline of hiring in the manufacturing sector:
http://www.bchinab.com/eng_press_WSJ102803.htm

Economists at Alliance Capital Management LP in New York looked at employment trends in 20 large economies and found that from 1995 to 2002, more than 22 million jobs in the manufacturing sector were eliminated, a decline of more than 11%.

Contrary to conventional U.S. beliefs, the research found that American manufacturing workers weren't the biggest losers. The U.S. lost about two million manufacturing jobs in the 1995-2002 period, an 11% drop. But Brazil had a 20% decline. Japan's factory work force shed 16% of its jobs, while China's was down 15%.

And here is another article bearing this out:

http://lincicome.blogspot.com/2011/05/some-much-needed-perspective-on-fake.html



Also, in regards to other sectors. In case of there being increased need for specialization, but lack of labor, why do people think that automated solutions won't be come up with to ward off the need for more labor? What happened with the phone system was that they came up with dialing to replace the need for operators.



As richard stated the near future isnt so bright. People should really make sure they dont have much debt.



At one point in time our economy was almost strictly agriculture based; and since we evolved from using primitive tools to work animals, early machines and then modern machines, a person today is hundreds of times as productive at producing food as someone was back when we were an agriculture based economy. With this in mind we don't have 99% unemployment because as less people were required to produce food more people were freed up to satisfy the wants and needs of people in other areas.

We have seen the same pattern time and time again, and I can say with certainty that (if governments don't simply pay people to do nothing) people will find new products and services to provide out of necessity. From youtube I can see a future where 10 times as many people can make a living being an entertainer than are doing so today by earning $0.01 from each viewer of their product a day on a small(ish) audience of 10,000 users a day. The rise of dog walkers, personal trainers, and personal shoppers demonstrates a service sector that is growing to satisfy need that people previously didn't know they had. Beyond all of this, every product is becoming computerized which means more software needs to be produced to create products that were once fairly simple; and, while the manufacturing floor may now require far less employees, the R&D department has grown to compensate for a large portion of these losses.



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richardhutnik said:
Mr Khan said:
richardhutnik said:
Mr Khan said:
Oil will crash, 2 billion of us will starve, and most of the rest will go back to work in the farms

But seriously, the market should correct against that in the long run. If enough people become unemployed and the demand for manual labor drops low enough, employment will go back up, unless those losses come primarily from the minimum-wage sector, but no-one really makes a living off such employment anyway

Why would employment go back up, unless businessed have a demand for more labor?  If all sectors are automated so that it isn't needed, then where are people employed into?

Really nightsurge made a better reply than i did. New sectors will always emerge that demand manual labor. Who watches the watchers, who builds the automated machines? As more services become transferrable, more people can be employed meeting the world's demands, say, for something more complicated than the average Indian can do, call centers will increase in volume. We're going to need lots of people for the inevitable infrastructure swichovers that are coming: universal fiber-optic broadband, systems to meet the electric car economy or the hydrogen economy, plants to process algae and kelp biofuels to supplement the loss of fossil fuel.

There is a point when pretty much all services could become automated except the creative arts, but if it's a system of sustainable energy, then that'll just be a quasi-Communist utopia like they have in Star Trek, but that's way down the line

Which of what you described is quantifiably different than what is going on now? If it is more automated and improved, why would employers switch to a model that would require them to hire even more workers than they have now?  If you decided to allow everything to be salaried, then the employers don't hire more people, they just demand more hours out of workers.  There isn't more hiring going on.

Also, where does a Communist utopia ever enter into the scene?  You may get a dystopia where you have masses of people who are laid off and out of work and a system that says that is rigged where they have to do unpaid work for very prolonged periods of time, or they lose their place in line and don't ever have a chance of getting paid.  You know, like all the people who write free code on the Internet, particularly in the videogame business.

I'm saying when we enter a post-scarcity society, which would be wayyy down the line (once we figure out Cold Fusion), then capitalism (which is an economic vehicle to minimize scarcity and optimize output overall) would cease to be because everyone could meet their needs from a virtually infinite, totally automated system

As i said, think Star Trek. Not "Communist" as in single-party totalitarianism, but everyone has what they need without having necessarily to work for it (though everyone worked on Star Trek... hmm...)



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

Mr Khan said:
richardhutnik said:
Mr Khan said:
richardhutnik said:
Mr Khan said:
Oil will crash, 2 billion of us will starve, and most of the rest will go back to work in the farms

But seriously, the market should correct against that in the long run. If enough people become unemployed and the demand for manual labor drops low enough, employment will go back up, unless those losses come primarily from the minimum-wage sector, but no-one really makes a living off such employment anyway

Why would employment go back up, unless businessed have a demand for more labor?  If all sectors are automated so that it isn't needed, then where are people employed into?

Really nightsurge made a better reply than i did. New sectors will always emerge that demand manual labor. Who watches the watchers, who builds the automated machines? As more services become transferrable, more people can be employed meeting the world's demands, say, for something more complicated than the average Indian can do, call centers will increase in volume. We're going to need lots of people for the inevitable infrastructure swichovers that are coming: universal fiber-optic broadband, systems to meet the electric car economy or the hydrogen economy, plants to process algae and kelp biofuels to supplement the loss of fossil fuel.

There is a point when pretty much all services could become automated except the creative arts, but if it's a system of sustainable energy, then that'll just be a quasi-Communist utopia like they have in Star Trek, but that's way down the line

Which of what you described is quantifiably different than what is going on now? If it is more automated and improved, why would employers switch to a model that would require them to hire even more workers than they have now?  If you decided to allow everything to be salaried, then the employers don't hire more people, they just demand more hours out of workers.  There isn't more hiring going on.

Also, where does a Communist utopia ever enter into the scene?  You may get a dystopia where you have masses of people who are laid off and out of work and a system that says that is rigged where they have to do unpaid work for very prolonged periods of time, or they lose their place in line and don't ever have a chance of getting paid.  You know, like all the people who write free code on the Internet, particularly in the videogame business.

I'm saying when we enter a post-scarcity society, which would be wayyy down the line (once we figure out Cold Fusion), then capitalism (which is an economic vehicle to minimize scarcity and optimize output overall) would cease to be because everyone could meet their needs from a virtually infinite, totally automated system

As i said, think Star Trek. Not "Communist" as in single-party totalitarianism, but everyone has what they need without having necessarily to work for it (though everyone worked on Star Trek... hmm...)

Not post-scarity, but a situation where there aren't enough jobs to go around, and you end up with the situation we are in now, if not more permanent, where most people don't even have a full-time job, and the main job they have doesn't pay the bills.  If you are lucky enough to pay the bills, it is with 3 jobs all like 5-20 hours a week being the norm.  People aren't needed to work.  At that point, then what happens?

And take your system you speak of, and it is entirely privatized.  So, how do people be able to get the goods and services?  They aren't working and can't produce anything people really want.

Or say the future is increasingly this...

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/mta_announces_contest_for_app_developers_TvlJghBmT4gDXqFjyWu9CN

Businesses have contests, get what they want done for a single prize paid out to the winner and they keep everything else.  What if this is the future?  Work is done via contests, with most people not getting compensated for the hours of effort they put in.  Then what comes next?



richardhutnik said:
Mr Khan said:

I'm saying when we enter a post-scarcity society, which would be wayyy down the line (once we figure out Cold Fusion), then capitalism (which is an economic vehicle to minimize scarcity and optimize output overall) would cease to be because everyone could meet their needs from a virtually infinite, totally automated system

As i said, think Star Trek. Not "Communist" as in single-party totalitarianism, but everyone has what they need without having necessarily to work for it (though everyone worked on Star Trek... hmm...)

Not post-scarity, but a situation where there aren't enough jobs to go around, and you end up with the situation we are in now, if not more permanent, where most people don't even have a full-time job, and the main job they have doesn't pay the bills.  If you are lucky enough to pay the bills, it is with 3 jobs all like 5-20 hours a week being the norm.  People aren't needed to work.  At that point, then what happens?

And take your system you speak of, and it is entirely privatized.  So, how do people be able to get the goods and services?  They aren't working and can't produce anything people really want.

Or say the future is increasingly this...

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/mta_announces_contest_for_app_developers_TvlJghBmT4gDXqFjyWu9CN

Businesses have contests, get what they want done for a single prize paid out to the winner and they keep everything else.  What if this is the future?  Work is done via contests, with most people not getting compensated for the hours of effort they put in.  Then what comes next?

At some point, the earth may be poluted enough that some kind of organization or leader representing the elite of the society will simply decide to get rid of the 5-6 billions human that arent really needed.



For every person that is no longer needed in agriculture, or manufacturing, more are needed in other fields. Sustainability is the biggest boom at the moment, before that it was online serivices. before that it tourism, fuelled by affordable air travel. Before that was the entertainment industry.



scottie said:
For every person that is no longer needed in agriculture, or manufacturing, more are needed in other fields. Sustainability is the biggest boom at the moment, before that it was online serivices. before that it tourism, fuelled by affordable air travel. Before that was the entertainment industry.

Sustainability (green) is alternate energy sources and also more efficient building materials to conserve on energy sources.  How is this anything quantifiably new, and not just the reshuffling of old skills?