It is most definite that they will, JoelCool7. The PAL region/Europe launch was their absolute last chance to get back into the game. They have already conceded Japan to Nintendo on both fronts. They are in contest with Microsoft AND Nintendo in the Americas. Europe and the rest of the world is the last battleground and they are losing ground to Nintendo and in some parts both Nintendo AND Microsoft. (except for New Zealand but that's like Walter Mondale's gains in the 1984 US election)
This is what I saw coming months ago when I made my prediction that Metal Gear Solid 4 will NOT go to the PS3. http://www.popzart.com/?page=view&topic=267
The poor market output by the end of the year will make sure the 3rd parties won't invest in the system when other competition moves units better. And people just won't believe an announced game can be cancelled and suddenly uprooted to another system. It's just code people. You can always adjust the code and make it work on another system. The PS3 isn't really that different from the 360 or even the Wii. In fact I bet secretly that's exactly what Konami is doing. They are ordering transition-making teams to work on ways to simultaneously work on another platform so they can decide to pull up stakes without delay.
This has happened before. It's not impossible ESPECIALLY when so much money is put into a project much as which what happened with MGS4. 3rd party loyalty is to who makes them the most money or easiest money. Nothing else. That in fact makes the phrase "3rd party loyalty" an oxymoron.
Sony destroyed their momentum greatly trying to keep up with the Microsoft Joneses and then got caught on the fence trying to emulate Nintendo's innovation. Identity crisis. They don't know who they are anymore. How do you go from most successful selling systems in HISTORY to Mr. Catchup? They launched BEFORE Nintendo in most markets: Japan & Americas. The Europe delay was fatal I believe. Especially in the face of this kind of competition. They should have either delayed the whole launch or tried to make the launch with SOME kind of product. They should know their success came from getting the market early while the later launched competition tried to match their headstart to no avail (not to say the companies should have cut their existing system's lifespans short to keep up with Sony. I'm glad they didn't do that...well except Sega & Microsoft). I think they would have been doomed either way but I think a total delayed launch would have been a little healthier than what they ended up doing. They gotta remember, there's an internet now. The world's closer together now than it's EVER been. Word gets around.
If things don't change, don't expect to see the PS3 past the year 2009. That's ANOTHER guarantee I put down for the record. And the idea of Sony putting the emphasis on their 1st party offerings to anchor their systems after a 3rd party exodus. Um doesn't that remind you of a certain company the past 11 years? It didn't work for THEM and they're the best in the business. Don't expect it to work for anyone else.
It's nobody's fault but the management at Sony. Blu-Ray was an interesting revenue-generating plan but in the end that 'war' with HD-DVD will mean nothing. Nobody's moving from DVD this soon for a more costlier medium and machine to run them on. Those will remain specialist/enthusiast/wine-test connoisseur's formats and nothing more. They WILL have a place in the market but it won't be the mass that Sony would need to make that idea work.
Good things HAVE come from the PS3 project. The Cell chip is being used in medical advancements http://www.popzart.com/?page=view&topic=607 and long down the line Blu-Ray may have good uses but they botched this project from start to finish and we are seeing the results now.
If Sony was a wise company they would have figured out how to get a greater profit edge out of the last 12 years of dominance. The fact that they couldn't showed you that a fall was imminent. If they just eke by a couple of dollars in dominance what will they do if that dominance fades? Will they even be ABLE to maintain dominance indefinitely? I think this drove the push for the PS3 project to become what it became. They were looking for a way to gain a greater edge in profit to tentpole the other sectors of the company which show various degree of struggle. American Idol is all about bolstering Sony Music. Sony Music is STILL trying to wrest the ATV catalog out of Michael Jackson's hands to get full control (ain't gonna happen Cap'n). Music business is in decline because of internet and that won't change significantly any time soon. The movie business is hit and miss though Spiderman 3 will definitely bring in some money (can't go wrong with Venom). They have lost the edge in many of their electronic divisions to other young lion companies trying to become the NEW Sony. The games sector was their bright spot and it really makes me wonder why they would waste that away so easily when they need to keep something in the forefront to show the world Sony's success.
I expect massive layoffs and a big restructuring at Sony in the coming few years as a result of ongoing money problems and southgoing project investments. Unless a miracle happens and Sony comes up with another novel big selling device (it CAN happen, not impossible) there's gonna be big change in the company's future. It has happened to giant corps before and dagnabit it can happen again.
If what someone says is true about Sony not panicking, then that's even worse. Because that means they are oblivious to what's going on around them and are living in a bubble. But time always pops bubbles so we'll see if this purported calm is all it's cracked up to be.
It's gonna be a looooooong 8 months for Sony & the PS3 that's all I can say. Stay tuned to VGChartz and let's see where the future carries them.
John Lucas
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