51,687,943

Ha!

50 million

Y'know, gaming usually expands by about 55m users every generation for the past 3 gens. However, I think with so much 'hardcore' power arrogance, the gaming userbase will remain relatively stagnant at ~270 million. Also, with all the multiplats, things will be much more rounded in terms of markethsare.

To use your Yearly numbers and have it match what I think will happen, here's what I got for Wii-U:

Year 1-  8mil (brand name will help, as will the headstart)
Year 2- 24 mil (It'll hit its stride, more SW but competition)
Y3-  45 (price cut by $50, SW strikes
Y4- 62 (another good year, but no price cut)
Y5-mil 76(start to look dated, price cut $50)
Y6- 86mil (console dying. Last ditch saviour attempts)

Death at 97m

This leaves the PS4 returning to 2nd place with 92m and the X720 with 81m. 

You heard it here first.

67 892 133.6
failure rate 5.7
and nintendo will make 589 782 541 635$ of profit lifetime from it

THIS MEANS WAR!!!!

42

100 million

Definitely not as much as Wii.
All the soccer mums and grannies who payed and played the Wii will not want to shell out more money for a console that they already have but just a HD version. Especially so if their Wii is collecting dust and they dont touch it anymore.

They are your uber casuals. Plus "violent games" (aka Core Games) coming to the Wii U? Omg they want to protect their kids from violent games if not they will grow up killing people.


For the next gen I'd say there will be almost a tie in all 3 consoles...and all 3 doing very well. But Nintendo will have the lead for almost 2 years because I dont see MS and Sony releasing their new gen so early. 2014 is my bet.

Wii U will get canceled. It will never see the light of day, under the proposed machine they showed at 2011 E3
that thing was a joke

90 million?

I dunno.