How much will Wii U sell lifetime?

[SaviorX]

Conegamer said:
Alright, let's do this properly.

I'm assuming 2 things here- it will have a 1 year headstart AT LEAST, and it will cost under $399 new. If not, give leeway of around 10%...

(running totals, launch-aligned)

Year 1- 12mil (brand name will help, as will the headstart)

Year 2- 25.5mil (will hit its stride, more SW but competition)

Y3- 40mil (price cut by $50, SW strikes

Y4- 55mil (another good year, but no price cut)

Y5-67mil (start to look dated, price cut $50)

Y6- 75mil (console dying. Last ditch saviour attempts)

End- 85mil

Y'know, gaming usually expands by about 55m users every generation for the past 3 gens. However, I think with so much 'hardcore' power arrogance, the gaming userbase will remain relatively stagnant at ~270 million. Also, with all the multiplats, things will be much more rounded in terms of markethsare.

To use your Yearly numbers and have it match what I think will happen, here's what I got for Wii-U:

Year 1-  8mil (brand name will help, as will the headstart)
Year 2- 24 mil (It'll hit its stride, more SW but competition)
Y3-  45 (price cut by $50, SW strikes
Y4- 62 (another good year, but no price cut)
Y5-mil 76(start to look dated, price cut $50)
Y6- 86mil (console dying. Last ditch saviour attempts)

Death at 97m

This leaves the PS4 returning to 2nd place with 92m and the X720 with 81m. 

You heard it here first.