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Forums - Sales Discussion - Expect at Least a 60% Drop in NA Software sales next Week

leo-j said:
we dont know how many ps3 will sell at OTHERS in january because its never been out january.

Yeah but we can still make general predictions after judging other consoles' tendencies. Check any of the hardware charts on this site for others data in the past and you'll see a massive collapse in January compared to December.

In 12/06 PS2 sold 1.3 million and 240,000 in the following January. (Less than 20% of December sales)

In 12/05 PS2 sold 2.3 million and 427,000 in the following January. (Less than 20% of December sales)

In 12/04 PS2 sold 1.7 million and 567,000 in the following January. (Just about a third of December sales)

I could keep going and even try other systems but it's clear that a massive collapse occurs in January so regardless of no prior PS3 data it's only logical to assume it'll sell far less than it did it in December which will be a little over 1.2 million. Personally i'm predicting the PS3 to sell around 300,000 total in January for others. I will admit it would be very impressive though if it could hold onto more momentum and sell around 500,000 but that would require it to hold onto almost half of their holiday sales which seems quite unlikely.  Sony should be very happy if they can get close to 400,000.



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outlawauron said:
I dont know. My anecdotal evidence is oposite of yours.

I went to game stores on the 26th and 28th. It was crazy! So many people!

BB was selling alright on the 26th with very few games sold out. I came back on the 28th and half the PSP software section was sold out! SMG, MP8, and M&S were all gone. CoD4 and Reaistance were both sold out for PS3. People were buying hardware. Saw two people get PS3s in my 20 minutes there. Both were 40gb. Its funny, I asked if knew about BC and they both said a cheaper price was more important.

A few other games were low on stock, but the surprising was that they got a shipment of Wiis that morning. I walked in and there was about 40 and when I walked there was about 25 or so. It was sad though for people trying to buy some terrible games. People were getting SC:L. : (

I hope you are right : ), I was just going by last years dropoff, and added in the fact that Wii Sports may only be 15% of what it was last week. PSP sellout? maybe they had little software to begin with... or maybe people who got one for Cmas and did not get a game went to buy one.... (we all know not too many games were sold with PSP's so it is possible)



psn- tokila

add me, the more the merrier.

DarkNight_DS said:
Why do you feel the PS3 will sell more during boxing week Leo?

It's because he's Leo. In his eyes, everything is an omen of increased PS3 sales.



tokilamockingbrd said:
outlawauron said:
I dont know. My anecdotal evidence is oposite of yours.

I went to game stores on the 26th and 28th. It was crazy! So many people!

BB was selling alright on the 26th with very few games sold out. I came back on the 28th and half the PSP software section was sold out! SMG, MP8, and M&S were all gone. CoD4 and Reaistance were both sold out for PS3. People were buying hardware. Saw two people get PS3s in my 20 minutes there. Both were 40gb. Its funny, I asked if knew about BC and they both said a cheaper price was more important.

A few other games were low on stock, but the surprising was that they got a shipment of Wiis that morning. I walked in and there was about 40 and when I walked there was about 25 or so. It was sad though for people trying to buy some terrible games. People were getting SC:L. : (

I hope you are right : ), I was just going by last years dropoff, and added in the fact that Wii Sports may only be 15% of what it was last week. PSP sellout? maybe they had little software to begin with... or maybe people who got one for Cmas and did not get a game went to buy one.... (we all know not too many games were sold with PSP's so it is possible)


Sales will be difficult to predict, I think. On the one hand present shopping is done, and many stores are likely thin on stock for a lot of merchandise, but on the other lots of people are off from work and school, prowling stores for post holiday deals, armed with gift cards. Then there's those Wii IOUs, and all those new console owners who may be looking to expand their libraries.



leo-j said:
Others:200k
Japan: 80k
America: 120k

for ps3, which is about 400k, sales should drop of by 230k

 80k in Japan??

 

Not going to happen.

 



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leo-j said:
Others:200k
Japan: 80k
America: 120k

for ps3, which is about 400k, sales should drop of by 230k

"we dont know how many ps3 will sell at OTHERS in january because its never been out january."

But we do know what happenned after it was launched in Europe and other places in March.  It dropped.   http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS3&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS3&reg2=America&cons3=PS3&reg3=Total+Other&weeks=85&weekly=1

So, I think your Other maybe optomistic.  But your America estimate could be too low.  While it's hard to know from last Christmas, because there were reports of PS3 having shortage in some areas (hard to believe now, isn't it), it didn't drop off that much the week after xmas.  And don't forget, the 24th was in this week's sales.  Japan should go up, maybe not to 80K, but higher.

Overall, I think Leo will be very close for PS3 with this week's sales of 400k.  But then for January...  don't expect it to continue at this rate.  January, and even more so Febuary, will definitely be a harbinger of 2008 if sales go down as much as they did in 2007.

 



Torturing the numbers.  Hear them scream.

PSaiki said:
leo-j said:
Others:200k
Japan: 80k
America: 120k

for ps3, which is about 400k, sales should drop of by 230k

80k in Japan??

 

Not going to happen.

 


 Not this week at least, isnt new years when the Japanese go shopping crazy?



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@ tokilamockingbird

Exactly. That's what was surprised about. A lot of the cheaper games were gone. Most $30 or under.



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PS3 45k in Japan

it got what 60k on the biggest week of the year, no way it does 80k



psn- tokila

add me, the more the merrier.