I think they give a exact number and date.

http://scei.co.jp/corporate/release/121116_e.html

"Tokyo, November 16, 2012–Sony Computer Entertainment Inc. (SCE) today announced that the cumulative sales of the PlayStation®3 (PS3®) computer entertainment system reached a milestone of 70 million units*1 worldwide as of November 4, 2012 – less than six years after the platform launched in 2006. SCE also announced that sales of the PlayStation®Move motion controller surpassed 15 million units*1 worldwide as of November 11, demonstrating continued growth and momentum of the PS3® platform."

For the PSMove they give "surpassed 15 million units" in another date (as of November 11).

I think that the exact data PS3 reached 70 million.

Quarterly reports always end on the last day of the quarter (September 30th).

Wii will have shipped about 1.8M making it to 98.98M as of December 31st 2012

Eh, I'd say it still has a pretty decent chance. Although it's looking like an increasingly uphill battle with every passing quarter. Nintendo would need to keep it around till about early to mid 2014 to pull it off from the looks of things.

Maybe my memory is off, but didn't VGC cut about 1M of 360's sales recently? ;)

Safe to assume it's within 500K of 75M sold as of writing?

When does Sony and Nintendo post theirs?

Next week and the week after?

I love your ps3 estimations. I don't know why you think the Ps2 outshipped it's q4 numbers in q2 and q3 (slowest time of the year) and double it's q1 numbers. Also, you've been heralding the demise of the consoles then the shipments are better than you were anticipating by a good amount. On top of these "terrible" numbers for current generation consoles you think last gen is still get substantial amount of support and going the opposite direction of what trends for all consoles (current and last gen) showed in prior quarters and is increasing YoY. Then you somehow believe the 360 is going to increase it's gap on the ps3 with adjustments but fail to realize Sony just needs to ship 4mil in the 2 busiest months to keep the gap equal which is highly plausible in my opinion. Especially you estimate 2 million for the month of October so 2mil in Nov and Dec are pretty easy. So your estimates are either off or Sony's shipments will be close to 74.3 and be the same difference as VGC numbers. If that happens I want you to be as vocal for adjustments you were clamoring for with the 360. Which for some reason you think the 360 is "clearly" overtracked by the latest reports yet the latest reports of Sony showed similar numbers but you were playing damage control when those numbers came out.

You point at your obscure Sony release that is meant to give a general idea of how their business is doing to support your estimates. I'll point to solid shipped figures.

70mil ps3's as of start of November.
1.4 - Q1
1.2 - Q2
.9 - Q3 (Christmas quarter)
.6 - Q4... And in Mid summer you somehow expect this trend to reverse... You expect Sony to have shipped 54% of their last years Ps2 numbers during the slowest points of the year. Yet this gens sales are sinking like a rock. I would think it would make more sense to think both gens are decreasing... not one 13 year old console increasing while current gen is on a sharp decline. Especially since you highly underestimated 360's Q4 performance. I would think it would underestimate the ps3's performance as well.

It definitely looks like the 360 is under tracked by ~300K-500K. Unless Q1 shipments are extremely low, though I don't expect them to be. And considering I think Sony shipped at least 6M, it looks they'll be under tracked, too.

PS2 at best shipped 200k or even less, so it will be easy guess PS3 shipment.