these are meant to be things that might happen, so no stop supporting PS2 or PSP, or Lair actually being as good as Uncharted

What would happen if Wii Sports wasn't bundled?

^^^ The Wii would be cheaper and probably sell droves more, people would still pick up Wii sports, but nowhere near the levels it's at today.

rendo said: I see these a lot, so I figured I'd make a thread, couldn't find one, if there was one my apologies, about all these "what if scenarios". Now, I don't mean obscene what if scenarios, like if all the consoles cost the same, what would sell more, I'm talking about circumstances and conditions that COULD or MIGHT happen, past or present. The big one I've been thinking now is this. What if the media wasn't all over the Wii buzz, would it still have sold as well as it did, all other factors still taken into account? I personally thing the Wii would have sold well, but not nearly as explosive as it has been. Viral Marketing has been HUGE the last few years, and the Wii gets so much free press, that they don't even need to run their own ads. Had it not been for all the "sold out" hype, I don't think we'd ever have witnessed this phenomenom. My 360 what if scenario is this. What if Halo 3 launched last year, about a few months before the Wii and PS3 was released? Would sales have skyrocketed for the 360 and just snuffed out the PS3 and Wii, or would the same path we're on now have happened? I'm sure people can think up some good PS3 what is scenarios, as I can't really think of any right now as I really don't follow the PS3 at all.

Things would have turned out more or less exactly as they are now just the timing would be a little different.

Nintendo EARNED that buzz. They had NOTHING going into the 7th generation. Everybody had written them off regardless of the fact that overall they never lost the majority or plurality of the market share—just in the home console sector. It was supposed to be only a fight between Sony and Microsoft and most people didn't even mention Nintendo's name in the fight as if they were a non-entity. All that BS about Nintendo becoming like Sega—going 3rd party. All that BS about Nintendo dropping out of consoles to solely make handhelds. Everybody thought this company was finished after the Gamecube. And everybody thought the PSP was gonna finish the job for good with Sony pushing Nintendo all the way out of the biz altogether as they go to attack Nintendo's handheld sector.

They EARNED this buzz. DS was the catalyst. The test. And when it held PSP off from its aims to "rescue gaming from the gaming ghetto (Dynomite!)" people began to take notice. PSP was supposed to short-circuit Nintendo's remaining stronghold and it was the immortal Playstation brand of 100 million plus system sales coming to town. When DS not only held its own but THEN began to eclipse the PSP, the aware ones retracted those lofty claims of Nintendo being finished.

Meanwhile this talk of Revolution was looming. A mystery system no one knew anything about except for it being a compact black box at E3 2005. People revised their estimations about Nintendo admitting that The N was perhaps Starman-Invincible in the handheld sector but their chances of regaining power in the home console sector were slim to none regardless of them calling this system a Revolution.

But all that changed once they unleashed that remote controller at the Tokyo Game Show on September 16, 2005. Gamefans had put together their visions of how the new controller would look and this unveiling showed that all of those theoreticals were haplessly way off. No one coulda predicted THIS! And people's sensibilities were affected either in the positive or the negative. Those in the positive (like me) knew that Nintendo would regain its dominance because of this controller, those in the negative cast doubt if it would work or if it wouldn't make a difference compared to the legendary Playstation brand or—if they DID see its potential—that it would destroy gaming forever. Little middle ground here. Excite, skeptical, or scared...only extreme reactions would do. The system was more and more beginning to look exactly like the Revolution they promised.

But Nintendo being so trademark secretive said nothing more for months letting the imaginations flow. People began to see more and more how this new device would transform gaming...and began to like these possibilities. Then they unleashed the name change...Wii it was called. Once again Nintendo forced extreme reactions. DS was on a roll and then the Revolution now Wii was displayed at a historic E3 2006. An enthusiastic Shigeru Miyamoto played orchestra and they set the mood that this console would aim for. Inclusiveness, accessibility, innovation...Playing Is Believing.

And boy did those E3 attendees believe. All those months of speculation-brewing silence built anticipation to a fever pitch. The lines were record breaking! You had never seen such a reception! Even if the competition had impressive showings at the show nothing could stop Nintendo at this point. This was the omen for the 7th generation. Nintendo was BACK. LL Cool J could write a song about it "Don't call it a comeback! I been here for years!"

Everything we see with Nintendo now was inevitable due to how DS & Wii came about. The media could not HELP but to take notice. The media was on Sony & Microsoft's side. Nintendo stole that attention. No one could deny E3 2006. Who had once been thought of as an also-ran now was once again a big contender and a big threat. With the competition's executives trying to buddy up with Wii to downplay it with phrases like Wii60 & with the competition doing their version of the controls Wii had, they set the current scene in motion. That was acknowledgment of Nintendo's power and the media could not HELP but to document it.

Nintendo's success was going to always be this explosive. If most of the media tried to ignore it, some member of that media was going to say something just to make a story for himself. It's all about media competition and one trying to one-up the other. Blog or authentic journalist, mainstream airwaves or in the cybersphere, the attention would eventually be focused on Nintendo. All that would change would be the timeframe of the events. It might have happened later than sooner. That's all.

*******

As for XBox 360 & Halo 3, if it launched earlier than Wii & PS3, PS3 would be in a worse position right now. Halo 3 was their trump card & it would have earlier solified their stronghold on the American market. PS3 would have been fighting uphill even harder as 360 stole its role as the "hardcore machine powerhouse". The massive 3.3 million number early on would have jumpstarted 360 sales to make 3rd parties take notice. 360 got power mostly from Sony's mistakes from the PS3 along with launching early. If in this hypothetical scenario Sony STILL made the same mistakes with the PS3 , then the early Halo 3 debut would have been more dangerous for the long term with relations to 3rd party. Remember 360 & PS3 are locked into battle with each other with Wii on the horizon. I've always held the notion that whatever 360 did would affect Sony's fortunes.

A Halo 3 early launch would basically make the system peak early but it would have plateaued higher long range with the addition of 3rd party support early on. For Wii it would also give a slightly longer time to match  them (software & hardware at same time) in America (which will probably be seen next year) but it was an inevitability that they would pass them. 360 putting Halo 3 out as Wii proved itself forced it to be a flashing light in hurricane. That hurricane being Wii. Wii's success overshadowed 360's success amazing though it may be.  If 360 launched Halo 3 earlier than the other 2 launched it could have made more long term waves. But with it coming in the midst of the WiiDS Phenomenon, it somewhat got lost in the shuffle. This is why you have people doubting 360's ability in 2008 expecting PS3 to repair the damage evening the score. They think 360 has done all it could do. September's NPD showing stupendous Halo 3 sales and a stronger 360 salesrise but it only just besting the Wii by a few thousands when Wii did nothing hardly spectacular all month. And ROSE while doing nothing spectacular.

****** 

Now in another scenario if Sony didn't make so many mistakes with PS3 project, 360 would have ended up being the odd man out due the Playstation legacy & Wii would have had a tougher time gaining its dominance though they would eventually win out. Microsoft is still the outsider in this business never forget. That's why they have to fight the hardest to make their name crowding out the established ones in the process.

Sony's the newer status quo, Nintendo's the old status quo. Microsoft is the outsider trying to get inside & due to Sony's mistakes they've been allowed to do that. Yet strangely they haven't fully capitalized on this fact yet. But I expect them to tighten up on any holes in the plan as Wii begins to crowd both of them out starting next year (we're seeing the precursors now in this holiday season). With Wii going into what I like to call the Pupa Stage (as opposed to Larval Stage we're in now) the industry will begin to transform to their favor more and more. This forces the others to fight for the leftovers and Microsoft I expect will be especially aggressive seeing that in reality they are still the outsiders of this industry. Anyone that loses $4 billion to get into videogaming is dead serious about competition. That is a fact.

Next year Wii gets even stronger, PS3 tries to repair the damage, and 360 tries to redamage those repairs.

John Lucas 

I'm of the opinion that Sony should have done everything in their power to release the PS3 at $299, with backwards compatibility, and a 'decent' line-up of exclusive games; this would have resulted in Nintendo and Microsoft having somewhat different strategies, but I suspect that people would have bought the PS3 on the Playstation's track record alone (potentially matching the sales of the Wii).

What if Wii sells 60 million by the end of 2008?

zackblue said: What if sony launched the ps3 at $299.99? What if nintendo named the wii the revolution? What if Micosoft Made the nex gen 360 next year?

1) Sony would of posted ridiculiously high losses, likely costing the entire company it's profit... or wouldn't of sold much better at all, either way the stockholder revolt would of killed the PS3. 2) There wouldn't be so many snappy puns for it's supporters and detractors to bandy around. It also would be shortened to Rev since we for some reason hate saying full words. The Rev sounds too much like a bad videogame system developed by extreme evangelicals with SNES level technology that play only games about Jesus. 3) Everyone would probably just give up on Microsoft unless you could trade in you 360 for a big discount. Also if sony stopped supporting the PS2 when the PS3 came out, well they'd of just lost nearly all their profit, and again their gaming division could of likely ate up all their profts making sony at a whole come out at a loss.