I see these a lot, so I figured I'd make a thread, couldn't find one, if there was one my apologies, about all these "what if scenarios".  Now, I don't mean obscene what if scenarios, like if all the consoles cost the same, what would sell more, I'm talking about circumstances and conditions that COULD or MIGHT happen, past or present.

The big one I've been thinking now is this.  What if the media wasn't all over the Wii buzz, would it still have sold as well as it did, all other factors still taken into account?

I personally thing the Wii would have sold well, but not nearly as explosive as it has been.  Viral Marketing has been HUGE the last few years, and the Wii gets so much free press, that they don't even need to run their own ads.  Had it not been for all the "sold out" hype, I don't think we'd ever have witnessed this phenomenom.

My 360 what if scenario is this.  What if Halo 3 launched last year, about a few months before the Wii and PS3 was released?  Would sales have skyrocketed for the 360 and just snuffed out the PS3 and Wii, or would the same path we're on now have happened?

I'm sure people can think up some good PS3 what is scenarios, as I can't really think of any right now as I really don't follow the PS3 at all.

I think if Halo 3 launched at the Wii/PS3 launch like MS wanted, they would have stolen a little Wii thunder, and made the PS3 launch look even worse than it was.

-What if MS had built-in HD-DVD player for use with movies and games?
-What if MS lowers all 360 SKUs by $50?
-What if Sony had bitten the bullet at launch and somehow launched PS3 at a competitive price?

If MS added built in HDDVD... If you refer to at launch, they'd be sitting in the same boat as the PS3 right now, unless of course they took the hit on that, just to bring up HDDVD market share. Otherwise the cost increase would have been detrimental to sales and it'd be at about 4/5 of what it is now, maybe even less.

If they dropped another $50 across the board, I could see it closing in on Wii like numbers, especially with the arcade costing less than the Wii, and the disk drived ones being slightly more expensive than the Wii. It'd force Sony to respond, and really hurt them financially, otherwise face being in last for the rest of this gen.

If the PS3 launched at say $50-100 cheaper, with Sony keeping the same components, I could see them doing wonders better. Easily past 10 million by now, probably closer to 12, especially if they did an additional $50-100 drop again.

What if sony launched the ps3 at $299.99?

What if nintendo named the wii the revolution?

What if Micosoft Made the nex gen 360 next year?

The problem is that a lot of these scenarios fail to take into account the interconnected nature of the factors themselves. The reason for one factor being what it is, is usually based on another factor being what it is, etc...

So would the Wii sell this well if it didn't have buzz? The answer is no, because if it didn't have the buzz it would be because it wasn't worthy of the buzz and thus sales would not be as good. But unfortunately that changes so many things it is beyond reasonable. This is why "What if" scenarios are not worthwhile in any analytical sense, but they can be amusing to ponder i suppose.

In that light I wonder what the difference would be for software if the 360 hadn't had a 1 year head start. But then when I consider just how many decisions each company has made based on the 360's year head start I once again realize that any conclusion I come to based on the "what if" is for all intents and purposes wild speculation. But interesting nonetheless.

@Rendo: But you have to wonder:

-how well both of them would be doing if BOTH had launched at high prices and had next-gen movie players built in. Neither would have a price advantage, and both would have high storage capacities.
-Also, I meant to say 'if MS slashed $50 off all models in time for GTA4?'

@Zackblue

What if sony launched the ps3 at $299.99?
It would be owning the 360. Similar games, cheaper price, and higher-capacity discs. For all the insults about Blu-Ray, if given the choice between a $349 console with DVD support and a $299 console with Blu-Ray support, who do you think people would go with? The only problem I can see is that they would be way farther in the red than MS was with the original Xbox.

What if nintendo named the wii the revolution?
Would have been an infinitely better name. A lot of people pass on it just because it's called a 'Wii'. 'Revolution' also symbolizes the path they are taking the gaming industry on. I also think it is a far more marketable name than 'Wii', especially to the casual. Come on, what rolls off the tongue better--'Wii' or 'Revolution'?

What if Micosoft Made the nex gen 360 next year?
They would become the next Sega. No one would buy it, and sales of the 360 would cease. They would be dead in the water as a console manufacturer.






Now:

-What if Sony had stopped supporting PS2 when PS3 came out?

LOL @ the name revolution-

I remember when they said it was not going to be be called revolution that everyone was up in arms. lol.

I remember being happy. Revolution sounds soo... egotistical.... I thought the Wii was weird, but it was better than Revolution would have been-

I mean mean that would be like Sony calling the PS3 "the Beast" or something self descriptive like that.

I think the next gen nintendo console will be THE REVOLUTION.

People saying the name Revolution appeals more to the mass market and would have made it better: I don't agree at all.. i know this sounds stupid but to me Revolution sounds like something only gamers would be interested about, its too big of a mouthful for, lets say, a grandparent, to say "I wouldn't mind playing the Revolution with my buddies next time their over" or a man saying to his coworkers "You guys should all come over to my house, we'll play the Revolution".. Wii is perfect because it is so simple and it has no implications that it is only for a certain group of people..

That is just my line of thought anyways

What if MS came out a year later when ps3/wii did with a stable console?

What if Sony rushed the ps3 a year earlier? Or what if they came out a year later?

What if the wii didnt have supply issues where would they be?

What if sega made a come back seriously?