09tarheel said:
Thanks for the post, this is definitely the most articulate write up of this sentiment I have seen so far, and I can now see why people are tying it into Iwata's statements here.
Personally I still disagree with this train of thought though. When looking at the DS's mega sellers (10 million ), it is comprised of Nintendogs, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart (all 3 are announced and probable before the end of the fiscal year for 3DS), 2D Mario (confirmed by Miyamoto), Pokemon (guaranteed), and Brain Age (again a sequel has already been talked about). So I just don't get the complaining, those franchises are all coming to 3DS, several of them are coming soon. If any of them are simply clones like Nintendogs cats, then I could see that being a problem, but I don't see any reason to assume that they will be yet.
I think a big part of the reason that these franchises turned into huge hits on DS and Wii despite many of them being around for a long time, is the marketing and communication that Nintendo successfully used on those platforms. That is why I take Iwata's comments here as very positive, because I think a large part of the 3DS's slow start is because of a failure to clearly communicate why people should be interested.
I also feel like the condemnation of the "you don't know what you want, we do, and we shall teach you!" logic is a bit off-base considering that is exactly what they did with the Wii. I think there were a lot of people who didn't know they wanted motion controls, or games like Wii Sports and Wii Fit, until Nintendo effectively communicated the appeal of those types of experiences. I don't think 3D will ever have the same level of appeal, but I think Nintendo should be trying to figure out a better way to communicate the appeal then they are doing now.
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Think back on it. What did Nintendo do to "communicate" about those hit games? Simple, straightforward commercials that showed the games, and showed people's reactions while playing the games. That's pretty much exactly what they're doing now, but people aren't getting excited about it.
Nintendo also took the attitude that they didn't know which games would become mega-hits. Games like Brain Training and Nintendogs, which had a slow start, Nintendo just left out there, and as they had a long tail, Nintendo kept promoting them. Remember Nintendo was surprised how organically those DS games spread, to the point that they created Tupperware parties for Wii's launch to try and jumpstart that process.
Nintendo was also never in over their head with any of those games. There were many games made as follow-ups to the Brain Training success, and some sold in the 3-6 million range, and some sold not very much at all. But if some of those games failed, it wasn't a big deal. They didn't have to blame anything on "communication." The new idea games had successfully acheived both low cost and high differentiation, so there was potential for a mega-hit, but low risk with a failure. They could afford to listen to the market if it rejected something.
Even with Wii, there was not a huge risk associated with failure compared to 3DS. Nintendo left themselves 3 outs, with a high profit margin, conservative initial production, and no less than 4 alternate control methods. Nintendo expected a slow start like DS, and if it had happened, Nintendo wouldn't have been caught with their pants down.
And another thing to mention is the way that Brain Training was developed. Iwata left the rest of Nintendo alone. He created a new, small development team to create something new, isolated from the rest of Nintendo, and they came up with Brain Training. Wii Fit may have also had a new team established for it. But mostly, since Brain Training there's been this intermingling of new ideas and old ideas throughout new and old teams. Basically, Iwata never isolated the core market game development from expanded market game development, in order to protect the core. As a new generation starts and the old expanded audience becomes the new core, it is also not protected.
While common sense dictates there will be sequels to mega-hits, feature-based upgrades like Animal Crossing Wii and Nintendogs Cats are falling flat. The attempt to turn Brain Training and WarioWare into DLC-based games failed. Wii Sports Resort, while an awesome game and a mega-hit, is built around the island setting and a hardware upgrade. Wii Fit Plus is a huge hit, but a dumbfounding follow-up to Wii Fit. In comparison, Brain Training was followed up by:
Brain Training 2
Big Brain Academy
Flash Focus
English Training 1 2
Personal Trainer: Cooking
Personal Trainer: Math
Personal Trainer: Walking
Half a dozen weird, Japan-only games like, uh... Face Training? What the heck?
By protecting the core, I mean that all of Nintendo's existing mega-hits should be given ongoing development resources, with further resources devoted to make second tier games in the same area similar to those Brain Training follow-ups. Keep catering to the expanded audience, and bring them into the core. Following that path alone will lead to slow decline through increasing costs and competition. So isolate out smaller teams to keep coming up with the Blue Ocean, low cost, high differentiation titles like Brain Training.
What is the only area being given significant resources for both the existing mega-hits and developing new second-tier games? It's what Malstrom keeps calling the "Gamecube games." 3D Mario, Zelda, Metroid, the new Kid Icarus, Paper Mario, Last Story, Pikmin. That's where Nintendo's focus is: 3D, character and story driven, high focus on graphics or 'art design', single player focused, expects a high time commitment and long play sessions.
So no, it's not a "communication" problem. It's chaos. It's chasing the next big thing with a failure to keep building on the established. And in that chaos, Nintendo's true colors of wanting to develop Gamecube games is shining through.
And gamers are rejecting it.