3DS ---  868,843 (7 weeks)

GBA --- 1,010,002 (2 weeks)

Interesting.

For comparisons sake:

GBA --- 1,782,168 (7 weeks) 3DS = 48.5% of GBA

DS --- 1,515,084 (7 weeks) 3DS = 57.3% of DS

Though it has to be said the DS was released during xmas holidays. Besides, DS ended up selling better despite doing much worse in the first 7 weeks, so nothing's guaranteed.

I personally think the 3DS will be fine when software comes and they lower the price, but it won't reach DS levels.

If it were to halve its total every week it would hit 1103 in 3 weeks and 69 units in 7 weeks.  That would be much sooner than he is predicting.  Now I don't think that'll happen, but it wouldn't need to be that dramatic to hit 100 by September.

It would need to drop about 15% a week from now to the end of September to hit around 100.  Dropping by 50% each week would put it at 1 unit a week after 3 months.

Japan, 17th April 2005

Japan, 24th April 2005

Clearly shows how a console goes from doomed (I still remember paople thinking Nintendo was done) to winner. 3DS only needs games, price and other factors will only prevent it to sell as great as DS or other cheap handhelds (GBA), but this won't make it fail, we'll see if the games coming out won't help it, the main difference with the DS was that it wasn't launched during the holidays, the line up from launch is similar (except for Mario 64 being a bigger launch title than anything 3DS had until now).

EDIT: forgot to mention, the second chart shows Nintendog's launch week.

Precisely, and that ain't gonna happen now is it?

Also, interesting Buzzi. It's clear that (In Japan at least) it's software which sells the system

Well, super expected sales I guess, nothing new.

The DS was the beginning of a new brand and cycle of consoles only three years and some into the life of the GBA, while the 3DS launched after 6 years and is the very much hyped successor of the best selling handheld of all time.  It would be better compare it to the GBA or the PS2 (though the PS2 suffered from grave shortages?).

True, but the point I'm making is that 3DS sales in Japan are just in line with the console it's always compared to. When 3DS will get games it'll start selling significantly, regardless his price or the sales of the iPhone. Right now there aren't good estimates on preorders (even COMG doesn't look to be a good indicator), maybe even Pilotwings will give a little push. Anyway it's obvious it's being outsold by the PSP, just like DS was outsold by PS2, its line up is just too big right now.

For those interested in comparing the device to the GBA or PS2, here's a compilation of the first few weeks worth of data for each device from their respective Spring launches:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3983746

man i really love these PSP & PS3 numbers this year ^^