I don't disagree, but I think the PS3's stronger performance late(r) in this generation silenced that quite a bit. If the PS4 saw a decline in sales of 33% to 50% from how the PS3 sold due to mistakes in how it was handled, I think talk of sony disappearing would go from small groups of fanboys to widespread expectations from everyone.

@ ishiki - I know that this theoretical puts Sony in a tough position, that's pretty much the point of this thread. I want to kno wwether people think Sony would again be capable of salvaging a pretty decent generation out of those tough starting conditions.

Xxain, yes, it was derived from that other thread, regardless, it's been a question I've been wanting to ask for a while, ever since the release of details about the NGP really.

As for what new tech, I'll reply later, gotta go now

It'll still sell upwards of 50 million units. As I'm told, Sony products are bought and stuffed by stores regardless of demand.

If Sony focuses on a major HD system that costs $600, I can easily see them dropping another 50% marketshare.

However, I doubt this will be the case.  Sony execs have been making many claims that a future system won't be even thought about until 2014 or later.  And that they will have a greater focus on motion games from now on.

And well, Microsoft has been going even more in this direction, claiming any new system will come with Kinect standard and they are focusing directly on the casual market.

Its in my opinion that next gen, we're probably going to see a major shift in focus, with PS3/360 trying to focus more on the 'casual' market while still trying to claim to be the 'hardcore gamer' system.  And Nintendo will increase its graphical output and third party support.

I think people exagerate on how much MS focuses on the casual market and it should be noted they've always tried to appeal to the casual market. They bought Rare specifically to do that. Now they have Kinect, they finally have a hit in the casual market.

As it stands now, the 360 has the most diverse audience in the market of casual and core gamers. Sony tried to appeal to casual with Move, but they failed and sell it as a core device. Wii hasn't had much success moving core games. I don't know why people see the 360 as less core just because MS has had success with casuals now.

Well, I'd argue that MS isn't making a massive change to the Casual market.  They've spend like $300 million on JUST advertising the Kinect, a peripheral to their core system.  And for about 2 years now, all the major XBOX commercials, aside from Halo Reach, have focused on things like LEGO Batman and the Kinect games.  This is a massive switch to the first XBOX and even the first 3 years of the XBOX360 where Microsoft was focusing almost exclusively on 'hardcore M rated games'.

PS3 is also seeingt an upswing of sales after MS switched to the casual market and they started focusing on the 'core' audience with advertisements for 'core' games.  Where this strategy failed at the launch of the PS3 because XBOX360 had such a strong start, Sony is doing well with it now because XBOX isn't focusing on that market anymore.

so essentially lemme summarize the thread:

Question: What will happen if next gen starts out the same way as this gen?
Answer: What happened this gen will occur next gen.

I'm glad we resolved alot w/ this thread lol

If the next XBOX doesn't have the year advantage they'll be behind the next Playstation. The PS3 outsold the 360 if you line up the release dates, as well as outsold it since the release date of the PS3. So I don't see how the next XBOX can outsell the next playstation regardless of the price point for the PS4. 

We don't know if that $300 million was just for Kinect, it could have been all of MS advertising. They were marketing like crazy in 2010. I mean between the 360, Kinect, Fable 3, Reach, Windows 7, Cloud, W7 Phone, etc... you couldn't turn on the TV without seeing MS products.

Also, they weren't just advertising Kinect. The 360 was rebranded last year and it had its best sales ever.

I'm confused about the Xbox commercials thing you said. In past couple years they marketed Fable 3, ODST, Reach, Crackdown 2, Forza 3, and had exclusive advertising on CoD games, FFXIII, and I'm sure there are others. I don't know if MS ever JUST focused on M rated games, but that seems like stupid strategy to me.

PS3 sales saw an up swing because its finally become affordable over the years. Playstation 3 had the hype to be a success but it was too damn expensive. The 360 thrived off that and took a lot of Playstation fans along the way.

Well, I can only speak from my experience and that of others, including on this forum.  But from what I've seen and heard, nearly all of MS advertising last year was focused on Kinect.  Heck, its still their major focus.  And like I said, aside from Halo Reach, I never saw any other MS commercials in the last year...except Kinect stuff.

If you were able to notice more, than perhaps I'm wrong.  But from my perspective (and many others), it seems like Microsoft is just KINECT KINECT KINECT.

Also, I don't have a source, but my '$300 million advertising' figure was said to be just for the Kinect.  And I'm sure at this E3, MS will once again focus like 3/4 its show on the device.