POOMA numbers. (Pulled out of my ass)
Numbers from VG, of course. Which the database needs a bit of updating, I admit (eg, Wii Fit = 0 sales)
Estimated Average Cost to make a game for the console.
$15M PS3 / X360
$7M Wii
Net sales $ back to publisher (game cost $60 for PS3, X360, $50 for Wii. Yes, $30 games are available, but then costs are even lower) Number sold to meet development cost. Estimated number sold now to reach number sold by LTD.
$40 net 375k 275 now
$30 net 235k 150 now
Total number of game for platform. 1st party#, 3rd party #, % of 3rd party s/b profitable
All MS 271 MS 20 3rd 251 30.7%
Total MS > 375 74 MS 12 3rd 62
MS> 275 90 MS 13 3rd 77
All PS3 165 PS3 20 3rd 145 13.8%
Total PS3>375 21 PS3 5 3rd 18
PS3>275 26 PS3 6 3rd 20
All Wii 245 Wii 19 3rd 226 15.9%
Total Wii>235 45 Wii 17 3rd 28
Wii>150 55 Wii 19 3rd 36
Yes, there are a lot of extra variables. 2nd party sales, just released games, database in # sold not up to date. But I think it show an overall picture.
Numbers I found interesting.
MS has published in 2 years what Sony and Nin. did in 1.
# of games from 3rd parties for Nin. nearly matches MS.
MS 3rd party success rate of 30%. Only because of the year head start and thus more sales during that first year (limitted competition) and larger sales base for most of this year.
If you strongly disagree with these numbers, fine. Just show where you are getting your more accurate costs, net $ sales, etc.