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Forums - Gaming - This is how iPhone is going to kill handheld consoles

mrstickball said:
RolStoppable said:

On the point of developer interest, what does that really mean, if you use the Wii as example? We know how that turned out, so it's not exactly helping your argument. GTA Chinatown Wars on iOS closing in on the sales of the DS version also isn't much of an achievement. After all, the game is more appropriately priced on iOS and the sales of the DS version weren't that great to begin with which is why accusations of the game flopping were thrown around repeatedly.

Yes, a million-selling DS game is a flop :-  What game would you want to compare then? Civilization: Revolution which outsold the DS version 2:1 on iOS? My argument on developer interest is that when the Wii was new and different, you had a lot of interest and quite a few 3rd party games - major tentpoles like Monster Hunter, too. Today, the market isn't quite as favorable for the Wii.

As for the price comments - here is the thing: downloadable games have a better value proposition because the developers/publishers make more money. Therefore, they cost less, therefore people can buy more. That is why I said Nintendos' cartel model of controlling both production of carts and handhelds is doomed. They will need to go to a downloadable model which provides greater revenues for developers, and at that point, they become a direct iOS/Android competitor, which will be an uphill battle, as Nintendo's downloadable model is the worst of all services by far, and Android/iOS will have massive advantages.

Nintendo had no parties to help grow their DS and Wii userbases and look how that turned out. Nintendo alone pushed these two systems to great success, so suggesting that Nintendo couldn't do that again is the hilarious thing here. If Nintendo is going to fail, then it's going to be due to their own incompetence and not the rise of smartphones, Android and whatever else.

Interesting. You don't consider IPs like Dragon Quest to be important? My argument about Nintendo going it alone is that you can argue the DS/Wii had little 3rd party support, but both had a lot more than the one I mentioned - Gamecube. That is where the distinction must be made. In the future, I fear Nintendo will get less support than ever due to iOS/Android becoming a better value proposition for developers (cheaper and more revenue = more devs)

I don't get what should be so special about that new iOS IP I don't even know the name of when Pokémon is still going incredibly strong. If we are going to address our biases, then you are a Nintendo hater who repeatedly got facts wrong in the past to suit your agenda. Which you are once again doing by ignoring my entire point in your conclusion. People won't be able to buy Nintendo games on a smartphone and that's why Nintendo's handhelds will continue to maintain their relevance.

Angry Birds. Its had over 100 million downloads in just a year and a half. You may not know about it, but there are a lot of people that do. Can you tell me how I am a Nintendo hater? I am just being a realist in terms of what the future holds. I am not against all the great things Nintendo does. I loved the DS and owned one with a few games. Its a great device. You can keep saying that just because people can't buy Nintendo games on smartphones means Nintendo will always be in business is an incredible bad statement. Look at what happened when Nintendo had Nintendo games on the Gamecube. The hard truth is that although Nintendo IPs are an incredible thing to have, without other IPs in conjunction with good hardware, its doomed. We saw that for nearly 10 years with the N64 and Gamecube, and I believe Nintendo is heading there again, but this time with handhelds.





I see  a hugh problem with your Ios and android debate. People all have phones and will buy phones just because no one used the home phone anymore. Not only that but angry birds I got for free because they can advertise to me. Not only that but I never paid for a game on my phone. I got a droid x. SO when it really comes down to it,  it is being bored somewhere. On the train or at a some docter's office. non of the games on the phone come even close to the enjoyment that I get from  a console. i got both wii and 360, yes I play 360 90 % of the time but would play wii way before my smalll arse phone with no controller.

So whats the real reason these games are moving at the rate they are because they are free. If DS gave away free games, it would jump from 100 to who knows how much, it's f'ing free. how can you hate when clearly there is  a advantage of being free.

LET ME SAY IT AGAIN IT'S FREE GAMES. I DOWNLOAD THEM WHEN I'M BORED AND THEN IT'S A MATTER OF TIME WHEN I'M DONE WITH THE GAME. THEY HOWEVER HAVE NO DEPTH EITHER.



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easyrider said:
mrstickball said:
RolStoppable said:

On the point of developer interest, what does that really mean, if you use the Wii as example? We know how that turned out, so it's not exactly helping your argument. GTA Chinatown Wars on iOS closing in on the sales of the DS version also isn't much of an achievement. After all, the game is more appropriately priced on iOS and the sales of the DS version weren't that great to begin with which is why accusations of the game flopping were thrown around repeatedly.

Yes, a million-selling DS game is a flop :-  What game would you want to compare then? Civilization: Revolution which outsold the DS version 2:1 on iOS? My argument on developer interest is that when the Wii was new and different, you had a lot of interest and quite a few 3rd party games - major tentpoles like Monster Hunter, too. Today, the market isn't quite as favorable for the Wii.

As for the price comments - here is the thing: downloadable games have a better value proposition because the developers/publishers make more money. Therefore, they cost less, therefore people can buy more. That is why I said Nintendos' cartel model of controlling both production of carts and handhelds is doomed. They will need to go to a downloadable model which provides greater revenues for developers, and at that point, they become a direct iOS/Android competitor, which will be an uphill battle, as Nintendo's downloadable model is the worst of all services by far, and Android/iOS will have massive advantages.

Nintendo had no parties to help grow their DS and Wii userbases and look how that turned out. Nintendo alone pushed these two systems to great success, so suggesting that Nintendo couldn't do that again is the hilarious thing here. If Nintendo is going to fail, then it's going to be due to their own incompetence and not the rise of smartphones, Android and whatever else.

Interesting. You don't consider IPs like Dragon Quest to be important? My argument about Nintendo going it alone is that you can argue the DS/Wii had little 3rd party support, but both had a lot more than the one I mentioned - Gamecube. That is where the distinction must be made. In the future, I fear Nintendo will get less support than ever due to iOS/Android becoming a better value proposition for developers (cheaper and more revenue = more devs)

I don't get what should be so special about that new iOS IP I don't even know the name of when Pokémon is still going incredibly strong. If we are going to address our biases, then you are a Nintendo hater who repeatedly got facts wrong in the past to suit your agenda. Which you are once again doing by ignoring my entire point in your conclusion. People won't be able to buy Nintendo games on a smartphone and that's why Nintendo's handhelds will continue to maintain their relevance.

Angry Birds. Its had over 100 million downloads in just a year and a half. You may not know about it, but there are a lot of people that do. Can you tell me how I am a Nintendo hater? I am just being a realist in terms of what the future holds. I am not against all the great things Nintendo does. I loved the DS and owned one with a few games. Its a great device. You can keep saying that just because people can't buy Nintendo games on smartphones means Nintendo will always be in business is an incredible bad statement. Look at what happened when Nintendo had Nintendo games on the Gamecube. The hard truth is that although Nintendo IPs are an incredible thing to have, without other IPs in conjunction with good hardware, its doomed. We saw that for nearly 10 years with the N64 and Gamecube, and I believe Nintendo is heading there again, but this time with handhelds.





I see  a hugh problem with your Ios and android debate. People all have phones and will buy phones just because no one used the home phone anymore. Not only that but angry birds I got for free because they can advertise to me. Not only that but I never paid for a game on my phone. I got a droid x. SO when it really comes down to it,  it is being bored somewhere. On the train or at a some docter's office. non of the games on the phone come even close to the enjoyment that I get from  a console. i got both wii and 360, yes I play 360 90 % of the time but would play wii way before my smalll arse phone with no controller.

So whats the real reason these games are moving at the rate they are because they are free. If DS gave away free games, it would jump from 100 to who knows how much, it's f'ing free. how can you hate when clearly there is  a advantage of being free.

LET ME SAY IT AGAIN IT'S FREE GAMES. I DOWNLOAD THEM WHEN I'M BORED AND THEN IT'S A MATTER OF TIME WHEN I'M DONE WITH THE GAME. THEY HOWEVER HAVE NO DEPTH EITHER.

Free games with ads = money.

Rovio has made millions of dollars from the 'free' version of Angry Birds on Android. They have ove 30 million 'free' downloads which all make them money. Over 80% of their download base actively plays Angry Birds for a month or two after the download, meaning they are making a killing from the 'free' game.

By now, I would estimate that Rovio has made between $7 and $10 million USD from people downloading the free version. How do you think companies like Zynga, Playdom, and others exist in the casual freemium market? Yes, they have virtual currency, but they run ads and other such things that generate revenue. Rovio themselves made Angry Birds free on Android because they knew they could make more money from the people unwilling to pay versus those that do.

And guess what? It worked.

I never said anything against consoles, like they were going to die. I am talking about the handheld market only. Many people do indeed play consoles far more than handhelds, and there will always be a market for them with their AAA experiences. However, the mass market appeal of gaming on smartphone has its own niche, which was about a billion-dollar industry last year. By comparison, the DS was maybe $2 billion in software. It will be only a year or two before revenues on smartphones surpass revenues on DS/PSP/3DS/NGP. Of course, such markets pale in comparison to consoles which made about $25 billion last year, give or take. But its still a market, and its still something that many people have interest in, with a lot of growth upside.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

mrstickball said:
RolStoppable said:
mrstickball said:
cloud1161 said:

xperia play >>>> whatever kind of joke that is

If they really wanted to make Smartphones kill the handheld market, and have Sony score the win, Sony needs to ensure that PSOne classics and other back-cat games make it on other Android devices through a Playstation Store, and maybe some sort of controller scheme like on the Xperia Play.

That way, you get the best of all worlds. All the great smartphone software, better controls, and a lot of great games. Then there is nothing that Nintendo can really do other than join the market somehow.

Except for having the hottest portable games exclusively on their handheld which really isn't an unrealistic scenario.

Given the past few years, I'd venture to say the hottest portable games have been on iOS, outside of a few Nintendo tentpole IPs.

Have you ever been to the Game Developers Conference? You know, the big event in San Fransisco that about 15,000 developers attend annually. At these conferences, you get a 1 to 2 year heads-up on what developers are going to put out into the market. 4 years ago, it was all about the Wii, and we got a ton of Wii titles about 1-2 years later.

After then, its been entirely focused on downloadable and AAA content, with Nintendo being the pauper in regards to interest. No one at the conference cared about 3DS, which is very telling about the global interest in the handheld over the next 1-2 years. What did people care about? Casual/Social online games, Steam, iOS and Android.

I've been saying it for 2 years now and will continue to say it: Nintendo's current handheld strategy is doomed to die this generation. There are far more iOS and Android devices on the market. Although many games are campy and cheap, the fact is, there is nothing preventing a company from releasing major AAA fare and seeing major success. For example, despite being released well over a year later, Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars on iOS is closing in on outselling the DS version. Its already outsold the PSP version.

 

Now, I am not saying that Nintendo having a handheld market is doomed, but their current cartel on how they deploy is. In 2 or 3 years, there will be well over a billion active smartphone users with technology that can supply games at 3DS or greater quality levels. Now, in general, that is meaningless if it weren't for the central application stores of iTunes and Android Market. That allows direct sales of gaming titles, which is a huge boon for gaming on smartphones, which makes it a valid market. Because of that, Nintendo WILL have to adopt a different strategy, because 3rd parties will find it far more lucrative to charge $9.99 or $19.99 for a AAA IP with a billion user install base vs. $39.99 on an install base with a fraction of the users. When that happens, Nintendo will have no parties to help grow their install base, stagnating the market and making a 3DS successor a non-starter (unless they simply want another Gamecube-type re-hash).

So having the 'hottest' handheld titles is rather hilarious. What new handheld IP has sold over 2 million plush toys in the past year? What new IP is getting its own TV show? The answer isn't a DS or 3DS IP, Rol. Its an iOS title. I know your a Nintendo fanboy, and that is fine, but the bigger picture is that Nintendo will have to adapt to a different heldheld policy next generation, because there is no way that people will continue to pay $200-$300 for a 3DS when they can get the same games on a device they already have for a fraction of the price.

DUDE A GAME THAT  I CAN GET FOR FREE OUTSELLING ANY DS GAME IS JUST A JOKE TO COMPARE. YOU REALLY ARE REACHING..

iOS IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTHING BECAUSE IN REALITY THESE GAMES ARE ALL FREE. I HAVE NOT PAID FOR ONE GAME, NOT ONE. IF DS WAS TO DO THE SAME THING, YOU COULD SAY GOODBYE iOS. IF DS WAS TO MAKE A PHONE. GOODBYE.



mrstickball said:
easyrider said:
mrstickball said:
RolStoppable said:

On the point of developer interest, what does that really mean, if you use the Wii as example? We know how that turned out, so it's not exactly helping your argument. GTA Chinatown Wars on iOS closing in on the sales of the DS version also isn't much of an achievement. After all, the game is more appropriately priced on iOS and the sales of the DS version weren't that great to begin with which is why accusations of the game flopping were thrown around repeatedly.

Yes, a million-selling DS game is a flop :-  What game would you want to compare then? Civilization: Revolution which outsold the DS version 2:1 on iOS? My argument on developer interest is that when the Wii was new and different, you had a lot of interest and quite a few 3rd party games - major tentpoles like Monster Hunter, too. Today, the market isn't quite as favorable for the Wii.

As for the price comments - here is the thing: downloadable games have a better value proposition because the developers/publishers make more money. Therefore, they cost less, therefore people can buy more. That is why I said Nintendos' cartel model of controlling both production of carts and handhelds is doomed. They will need to go to a downloadable model which provides greater revenues for developers, and at that point, they become a direct iOS/Android competitor, which will be an uphill battle, as Nintendo's downloadable model is the worst of all services by far, and Android/iOS will have massive advantages.

Nintendo had no parties to help grow their DS and Wii userbases and look how that turned out. Nintendo alone pushed these two systems to great success, so suggesting that Nintendo couldn't do that again is the hilarious thing here. If Nintendo is going to fail, then it's going to be due to their own incompetence and not the rise of smartphones, Android and whatever else.

Interesting. You don't consider IPs like Dragon Quest to be important? My argument about Nintendo going it alone is that you can argue the DS/Wii had little 3rd party support, but both had a lot more than the one I mentioned - Gamecube. That is where the distinction must be made. In the future, I fear Nintendo will get less support than ever due to iOS/Android becoming a better value proposition for developers (cheaper and more revenue = more devs)

I don't get what should be so special about that new iOS IP I don't even know the name of when Pokémon is still going incredibly strong. If we are going to address our biases, then you are a Nintendo hater who repeatedly got facts wrong in the past to suit your agenda. Which you are once again doing by ignoring my entire point in your conclusion. People won't be able to buy Nintendo games on a smartphone and that's why Nintendo's handhelds will continue to maintain their relevance.

Angry Birds. Its had over 100 million downloads in just a year and a half. You may not know about it, but there are a lot of people that do. Can you tell me how I am a Nintendo hater? I am just being a realist in terms of what the future holds. I am not against all the great things Nintendo does. I loved the DS and owned one with a few games. Its a great device. You can keep saying that just because people can't buy Nintendo games on smartphones means Nintendo will always be in business is an incredible bad statement. Look at what happened when Nintendo had Nintendo games on the Gamecube. The hard truth is that although Nintendo IPs are an incredible thing to have, without other IPs in conjunction with good hardware, its doomed. We saw that for nearly 10 years with the N64 and Gamecube, and I believe Nintendo is heading there again, but this time with handhelds.





I see  a hugh problem with your Ios and android debate. People all have phones and will buy phones just because no one used the home phone anymore. Not only that but angry birds I got for free because they can advertise to me. Not only that but I never paid for a game on my phone. I got a droid x. SO when it really comes down to it,  it is being bored somewhere. On the train or at a some docter's office. non of the games on the phone come even close to the enjoyment that I get from  a console. i got both wii and 360, yes I play 360 90 % of the time but would play wii way before my smalll arse phone with no controller.

So whats the real reason these games are moving at the rate they are because they are free. If DS gave away free games, it would jump from 100 to who knows how much, it's f'ing free. how can you hate when clearly there is  a advantage of being free.

LET ME SAY IT AGAIN IT'S FREE GAMES. I DOWNLOAD THEM WHEN I'M BORED AND THEN IT'S A MATTER OF TIME WHEN I'M DONE WITH THE GAME. THEY HOWEVER HAVE NO DEPTH EITHER.

Free games with ads = money.

Rovio has made millions of dollars from the 'free' version of Angry Birds on Android. They have ove 30 million 'free' downloads which all make them money. Over 80% of their download base actively plays Angry Birds for a month or two after the download, meaning they are making a killing from the 'free' game.

By now, I would estimate that Rovio has made between $7 and $10 million USD from people downloading the free version. How do you think companies like Zynga, Playdom, and others exist in the casual freemium market? Yes, they have virtual currency, but they run ads and other such things that generate revenue. Rovio themselves made Angry Birds free on Android because they knew they could make more money from the people unwilling to pay versus those that do.

And guess what? It worked.

guess what it will never out take ds because it's  like the ugle sister and the hot one. Being the ds is the hot sister and everyone will go with the hot one and do more to get her. Where the iOS  is ugly and people will just settle for the time being. However this won't start some trend that will screw nintendo you are just a apple guy. thats it, you love to love apple.

DS will succeed and no developer is going to ignore the potential of nintendo ever. You kidding me. Look at there sales. Your just reaching and comparing facts that don't compare.



easyrider said:

guess what it will never out take ds because it's  like the ugle sister and the hot one. Being the ds is the hot syster and everyone will go with the hot one and do more to get her. Where the iOS  is ugly and people will just settle for the time being. However this won't start some trend that will screw nintendo you are just a apple guy. thats it you love to love apple.

I don't own an Apple product and hate the iPhone with a passion, for the record.

However, I understand where the market is headed, and I accept that. Its not a matter of what I like or want, but where the market is headed. The market is, like it or not, headed in the direction of mass-market penetration of applications via smartphones.

Furthermore, I never said that Angry Birds outsold every DS game. I just said they had 100 million downloads (which they do, Rovio has said it themsevles), and they likely made between $7 and $10 million USD on the Android version alone. They've probably made about $50 - $65 million USD between all makes and models of Angry Birds, which is about on the level of a DS game selling 2 million copies worldwide. Does that make the iOS market as large as the DS market? No. Does that make it as successful as a game like New Super Mario Brothers on DS? Heck no. But iOS and smartphones in general are posting triple-digit growth annualy, which, given time, will turn future titles into huge blockbusters that will compete with the 3DS.

At that point, it will then become difficult for most every company to ignore the iOS/Android markets, and they will decide to focus more on titles inside those markets. When that happens (and its happening here and there with some games and companies), you will start to see the legs fall out of 3rd party support for the 3DS and so on, which will hurt Nintendo and Sony very badly.

*edit*

As for your 'The game would be over if DS would make a phone' comment --- I think your trying to argue about what if Nintendo made a 3DS phone, that it'd be game over. That is exactly my point on the entire discussion. My belief is that Nintendo will indeed do that, and leveraging their IPs on a market like Android, using a Nintendo chipset. Think Nintendo Channel on your DroidX or like what Sony is doing with the Xperia Play. When they do that, they will likely find great success, but again, that is my point - Nintendo will then be out of the cartel business of making 100% of the hardware, making 100% of the carts, and so on. But in the end, it would be better because NSMB on iOS/Android via a Nintendo Channel would sell 100 million copies.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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RolStoppable said:
mrstickball said:
RolStoppable said:

On the point of developer interest, what does that really mean, if you use the Wii as example? We know how that turned out, so it's not exactly helping your argument. GTA Chinatown Wars on iOS closing in on the sales of the DS version also isn't much of an achievement. After all, the game is more appropriately priced on iOS and the sales of the DS version weren't that great to begin with which is why accusations of the game flopping were thrown around repeatedly.

Yes, a million-selling DS game is a flop :-  What game would you want to compare then? Civilization: Revolution which outsold the DS version 2:1 on iOS? My argument on developer interest is that when the Wii was new and different, you had a lot of interest and quite a few 3rd party games - major tentpoles like Monster Hunter, too. Today, the market isn't quite as favorable for the Wii.

As for the price comments - here is the thing: downloadable games have a better value proposition because the developers/publishers make more money. Therefore, they cost less, therefore people can buy more. That is why I said Nintendos' cartel model of controlling both production of carts and handhelds is doomed. They will need to go to a downloadable model which provides greater revenues for developers, and at that point, they become a direct iOS/Android competitor, which will be an uphill battle, as Nintendo's downloadable model is the worst of all services by far, and Android/iOS will have massive advantages.

Nintendo had no parties to help grow their DS and Wii userbases and look how that turned out. Nintendo alone pushed these two systems to great success, so suggesting that Nintendo couldn't do that again is the hilarious thing here. If Nintendo is going to fail, then it's going to be due to their own incompetence and not the rise of smartphones, Android and whatever else.

Interesting. You don't consider IPs like Dragon Quest to be important? My argument about Nintendo going it alone is that you can argue the DS/Wii had little 3rd party support, but both had a lot more than the one I mentioned - Gamecube. That is where the distinction must be made. In the future, I fear Nintendo will get less support than ever due to iOS/Android becoming a better value proposition for developers (cheaper and more revenue = more devs)

I don't get what should be so special about that new iOS IP I don't even know the name of when Pokémon is still going incredibly strong. If we are going to address our biases, then you are a Nintendo hater who repeatedly got facts wrong in the past to suit your agenda. Which you are once again doing by ignoring my entire point in your conclusion. People won't be able to buy Nintendo games on a smartphone and that's why Nintendo's handhelds will continue to maintain their relevance.

Angry Birds. Its had over 100 million downloads in just a year and a half. You may not know about it, but there are a lot of people that do. Can you tell me how I am a Nintendo hater? I am just being a realist in terms of what the future holds. I am not against all the great things Nintendo does. I loved the DS and owned one with a few games. Its a great device. You can keep saying that just because people can't buy Nintendo games on smartphones means Nintendo will always be in business is an incredible bad statement. Look at what happened when Nintendo had Nintendo games on the Gamecube. The hard truth is that although Nintendo IPs are an incredible thing to have, without other IPs in conjunction with good hardware, its doomed. We saw that for nearly 10 years with the N64 and Gamecube, and I believe Nintendo is heading there again, but this time with handhelds.

 

 

You are ignoring the consumer side regarding downloadable games. The value proposition of retail games is better, because consumers have the ability to sell their games. With downloadable games you can't do anything. If you get burned, you get burned badly unless it's a throwaway game that costs $2. But that's not the type of game we are talking about here, we are talking AAA development here which is more likely to be in the range of selling for around $20 at the very least.

If re-sale were so important, then why is Steam growing? You can't sell games there, but they are about a billion dollar a year market. The reality is, consumers don't care about resale as much as you'd think. Its why people own a ton of copies of SMB3 on Virtual Console, and the same reason they are willing to buy on Steam too - if the price is right, they could care less about resale. Furthermore, there isn't a major issue with making a $20 AAA game on iOS. The simple fact is that few people are trying to do it, but I think it has more to do with the will than the way. Grand Theft Auto was $9.99 for the majority of its lifespan, which made 2K about as much money per copy as it did on PSP at $19.99 due to the additional costs of physical distribution.

Dragon Quest certainly is of importance, but it's not even of global interest. It's unrealistic that third parties would put their biggest properties on smartphones, much less so as exclusives or definitive versions. There could be a billion smartphone owners, but if the vast majority of them isn't interested in paying more than $5 for a game (and that's the case), then it doesn't mean much.

A lot of people paid $6.99 for Infinity Blade, so I'd say your wrong. Given that Square is sending DS and PSP ports of their tentpole RPGs to the market at $6.99 and $9.99, I'd say there are games and developers willing to go at the higher price points, and feel they can be successful.

So it's Angry Birds we are talking about here, the game that made $70 million in revenue off of 100 million downloads. That's less than a dollar per download, certainly not an impressive figure. Sure, it's still a big success when you look at return on investment, but it's a one hit wonder. Everytime it comes to how wonderful the iOS platform is for developers, a few select successful games are mentioned. However, the batting average is terrible. For every successful game there are hundreds that didn't sell any notable numbers. Most companies have one hit covering the failures of their dozen(s) other games.

I don't disagree there are a lot of failures on the iOS market. However, its rarely the good games with marketing that do poorly. The ones that do poorly are the titles that some guy made in his basement and never spent a dollar on advertising.

Your stance regarding Nintendo is dominantly negative. The only way you can see Nintendo going is down. The Nintendo 64 and Gamecube are examples of Nintendo failing due to their own incompetence which is the only realistic reason why they can fail in the handheld business. Super Mario Bros. is Nintendo's biggest and longlived IP, but they didn't use it on the N64 and GC. A company abandoning it's biggest and most important series without anything to take its place, that is a clear sign of incompetence.

Uhhh. I played Mario 64 on the N64. First game I bought for my N64 too! Are you saying it didn't exist? Or are you saying that somehow Mario 64 wasn't in the Super Mario series? If so, you are crazy to think that, because I remember Nintendo Power hyping it every time they could as the successor to Super Mario World on SNES. It sold like a sequel to SMB too.





Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

mrstickball said:
RolStoppable said:

 

Your stance regarding Nintendo is dominantly negative. The only way you can see Nintendo going is down. The Nintendo 64 and Gamecube are examples of Nintendo failing due to their own incompetence which is the only realistic reason why they can fail in the handheld business. Super Mario Bros. is Nintendo's biggest and longlived IP, but they didn't use it on the N64 and GC. A company abandoning it's biggest and most important series without anything to take its place, that is a clear sign of incompetence.

Uhhh. I played Mario 64 on the N64. First game I bought for my N64 too! Are you saying it didn't exist? Or are you saying that somehow Mario 64 wasn't in the Super Mario series? If so, you are crazy to think that, because I remember Nintendo Power hyping it every time they could as the successor to Super Mario World on SNES. It sold like a sequel to SMB too.



He's referring to the 2D Super Mario games; you know, the ones that sell millions upon millions?  I love Super Mario 64.  It was of major importance IMO, as it showed how Nintendo could successfully achieve 3D gaming.  But the N64 and the Gamecube both lacked a side-scrolling Mario game which (in addition to their 3D counterparts) would have undoubtedly made them sell even better and made their respective libraries more well-rounded.

Your arguments about the future of handheld gaming are well founded but your conclusion is a bit over dramatic.  Just as there will always be people who are content with simple, 10 minute fun with their "app" games, there will always be people who want real handheld games for a richer experience.  One doesn't ultimately have to replace the other.  Yes, a lot of people own smart phones, but not everyone who owns a phone plays games with them... and who buys one just for gaming?  That's a pretty big risk for say, Capcom to release their next Street Fighter only for smart phones and ignore the latest handheld system completely... especially if it's made by Nintendo.

As great as Angry Birds' 100m downloads are, it hasn't stopped NSMB from  selling over 25m at around $30 a pop no less.  And AB is a rare exception compared to the goliaths that are Mario Kart, Pokemon, Nintendogs, Brain Age and countless others that also perform very well.  My conclusion is there is room for both the smart phone market and handhelds simply because they really do cater to different demographics for the most part.

And if for some reason the market does dramatically sway away from a dedicated handheld device, as you said, Nintendo would ultimately find a way to adapt. 



mrstickball said:
RolStoppable said:
mrstickball said:
RolStoppable said:

On the point of developer interest, what does that really mean, if you use the Wii as example? We know how that turned out, so it's not exactly helping your argument. GTA Chinatown Wars on iOS closing in on the sales of the DS version also isn't much of an achievement. After all, the game is more appropriately priced on iOS and the sales of the DS version weren't that great to begin with which is why accusations of the game flopping were thrown around repeatedly.

Yes, a million-selling DS game is a flop :-  What game would you want to compare then? Civilization: Revolution which outsold the DS version 2:1 on iOS? My argument on developer interest is that when the Wii was new and different, you had a lot of interest and quite a few 3rd party games - major tentpoles like Monster Hunter, too. Today, the market isn't quite as favorable for the Wii.

As for the price comments - here is the thing: downloadable games have a better value proposition because the developers/publishers make more money. Therefore, they cost less, therefore people can buy more. That is why I said Nintendos' cartel model of controlling both production of carts and handhelds is doomed. They will need to go to a downloadable model which provides greater revenues for developers, and at that point, they become a direct iOS/Android competitor, which will be an uphill battle, as Nintendo's downloadable model is the worst of all services by far, and Android/iOS will have massive advantages.

Nintendo had no parties to help grow their DS and Wii userbases and look how that turned out. Nintendo alone pushed these two systems to great success, so suggesting that Nintendo couldn't do that again is the hilarious thing here. If Nintendo is going to fail, then it's going to be due to their own incompetence and not the rise of smartphones, Android and whatever else.

Interesting. You don't consider IPs like Dragon Quest to be important? My argument about Nintendo going it alone is that you can argue the DS/Wii had little 3rd party support, but both had a lot more than the one I mentioned - Gamecube. That is where the distinction must be made. In the future, I fear Nintendo will get less support than ever due to iOS/Android becoming a better value proposition for developers (cheaper and more revenue = more devs)

I don't get what should be so special about that new iOS IP I don't even know the name of when Pokémon is still going incredibly strong. If we are going to address our biases, then you are a Nintendo hater who repeatedly got facts wrong in the past to suit your agenda. Which you are once again doing by ignoring my entire point in your conclusion. People won't be able to buy Nintendo games on a smartphone and that's why Nintendo's handhelds will continue to maintain their relevance.

Angry Birds. Its had over 100 million downloads in just a year and a half. You may not know about it, but there are a lot of people that do. Can you tell me how I am a Nintendo hater? I am just being a realist in terms of what the future holds. I am not against all the great things Nintendo does. I loved the DS and owned one with a few games. Its a great device. You can keep saying that just because people can't buy Nintendo games on smartphones means Nintendo will always be in business is an incredible bad statement. Look at what happened when Nintendo had Nintendo games on the Gamecube. The hard truth is that although Nintendo IPs are an incredible thing to have, without other IPs in conjunction with good hardware, its doomed. We saw that for nearly 10 years with the N64 and Gamecube, and I believe Nintendo is heading there again, but this time with handhelds.

 

 

You are ignoring the consumer side regarding downloadable games. The value proposition of retail games is better, because consumers have the ability to sell their games. With downloadable games you can't do anything. If you get burned, you get burned badly unless it's a throwaway game that costs $2. But that's not the type of game we are talking about here, we are talking AAA development here which is more likely to be in the range of selling for around $20 at the very least.

If re-sale were so important, then why is Steam growing? You can't sell games there, but they are about a billion dollar a year market. The reality is, consumers don't care about resale as much as you'd think. Its why people own a ton of copies of SMB3 on Virtual Console, and the same reason they are willing to buy on Steam too - if the price is right, they could care less about resale. Furthermore, there isn't a major issue with making a $20 AAA game on iOS. The simple fact is that few people are trying to do it, but I think it has more to do with the will than the way. Grand Theft Auto was $9.99 for the majority of its lifespan, which made 2K about as much money per copy as it did on PSP at $19.99 due to the additional costs of physical distribution.

Dragon Quest certainly is of importance, but it's not even of global interest. It's unrealistic that third parties would put their biggest properties on smartphones, much less so as exclusives or definitive versions. There could be a billion smartphone owners, but if the vast majority of them isn't interested in paying more than $5 for a game (and that's the case), then it doesn't mean much.

A lot of people paid $6.99 for Infinity Blade, so I'd say your wrong. Given that Square is sending DS and PSP ports of their tentpole RPGs to the market at $6.99 and $9.99, I'd say there are games and developers willing to go at the higher price points, and feel they can be successful.

So it's Angry Birds we are talking about here, the game that made $70 million in revenue off of 100 million downloads. That's less than a dollar per download, certainly not an impressive figure. Sure, it's still a big success when you look at return on investment, but it's a one hit wonder. Everytime it comes to how wonderful the iOS platform is for developers, a few select successful games are mentioned. However, the batting average is terrible. For every successful game there are hundreds that didn't sell any notable numbers. Most companies have one hit covering the failures of their dozen(s) other games.

I don't disagree there are a lot of failures on the iOS market. However, its rarely the good games with marketing that do poorly. The ones that do poorly are the titles that some guy made in his basement and never spent a dollar on advertising.

Your stance regarding Nintendo is dominantly negative. The only way you can see Nintendo going is down. The Nintendo 64 and Gamecube are examples of Nintendo failing due to their own incompetence which is the only realistic reason why they can fail in the handheld business. Super Mario Bros. is Nintendo's biggest and longlived IP, but they didn't use it on the N64 and GC. A company abandoning it's biggest and most important series without anything to take its place, that is a clear sign of incompetence.

Uhhh. I played Mario 64 on the N64. First game I bought for my N64 too! Are you saying it didn't exist? Or are you saying that somehow Mario 64 wasn't in the Super Mario series? If so, you are crazy to think that, because I remember Nintendo Power hyping it every time they could as the successor to Super Mario World on SNES. It sold like a sequel to SMB too.



im pretty sure what rol is trying to say is that regardless of steam's or angry bird's success, there is no way iOS will cannibalize on Nintendo's handheld sales. the only one who can bring down nintendo is nintendo. they just have to keep making shitty games. sure, steam is growing, and angry birds got a hundred million downloads, but can you prove that retail is declining? and can you prove that steam or iOS is the cause of that decline? can you prove virtual console cannibalized on wii game sales? you can't. consumers do care about retail. maybe not just for resale purposes, but they definitely do.

also, iPhone is not a video game console, it is a portable computer. it was not made to play games, so the games made for it will generally be shallower compared to its dedicated handheld counterparts (and by shallower, i do not mean casual, i mean more limited in many ways). years ago, people like you predicted the doom of game consoles in favor of computers. that computers would take over the living room. iOS is just the latest embodiment of that prediction. computers never took over in 1985, and they won't take over today. and it doesn't have to be Nintendo that thwarts them. in fact, it is very possible that Nintendo will be ousted as a integrated hardware/software game company if they continue on its current path (3D obsession, changing the fundamentals of its flagship titles such as metroid, zelda, and mario, etc) any company that decides to make a dedicated handheld and excellent games for that handheld will effectively end the computer craze. the iPhone, as long as it is a portable computer, cannot have excellent games. it could have good games and great games (see angry birds) sold on the cheap, but that is all.

finally, super mario 64 is not part of the super mario bros series, because the fundamental gameplay that got people hooked to the 2D games completely changed when it hit the N64. same with sunshine and the galaxies. it doesn't matter what nintendo or its developers thought of it or how they advertised it, the consumers didn't see it as super mario bros. and it sold accordingly. 2D mario gameplay is far more fun and engaging than 3D mario gameplay. why do you think so many people refer to NMSBWii as Mario 5?



archbrix said:

He's referring to the 2D Super Mario games; you know, the ones that sell millions upon millions?  I love Super Mario 64.  It was of major importance IMO, as it showed how Nintendo could successfully achieve 3D gaming.  But the N64 and the Gamecube both lacked a side-scrolling Mario game which (in addition to their 3D counterparts) would have undoubtedly made them sell even better and made their respective libraries more well-rounded.

Your arguments about the future of handheld gaming are well founded but your conclusion is a bit over dramatic.  Just as there will always be people who are content with simple, 10 minute fun with their "app" games, there will always be people who want real handheld games for a richer experience.  One doesn't ultimately have to replace the other.  Yes, a lot of people own smart phones, but not everyone who owns a phone plays games with them... and who buys one just for gaming?  That's a pretty big risk for say, Capcom to release their next Street Fighter only for smart phones and ignore the latest handheld system completely... especially if it's made by Nintendo.

As great as Angry Birds' 100m downloads are, it hasn't stopped NSMB from  selling over 25m at around $30 a pop no less.  And AB is a rare exception compared to the goliaths that are Mario Kart, Pokemon, Nintendogs, Brain Age and countless others that also perform very well.  My conclusion is there is room for both the smart phone market and handhelds simply because they really do cater to different demographics for the most part.

And if for some reason the market does dramatically sway away from a dedicated handheld device, as you said, Nintendo would ultimately find a way to adapt. 

Again, I'm speaking about SM64 from the point of view of the actual market when the game came out, not revisionist history to fit in with Sunshine and SMG 1 &2 and the 2D revival. If you were around the Nintendo market in the mid 90s at and prior to when SM64 came out, you'd know that SM64 was pitched as the sequel, not a spinoff or anything else. If anything, I think its that Nintendo was forced to revise its model by offering NSMB, then the rest is history in terms of sales. That isn't to argue that NSMB isn't the true sequel to the 2D titles (it is), but at the time, it was pitched as the successor. It can be proven, given that Nintendo didn't offer the 2D versions for quite some time, as the 3D titles were seen as the actual IP.

My question to you is: What constitutes a "real" handheld experience? Is it just physical buttons or a controller? If so, why did Nintendo do away with a regular controller with the Wii? I would argue that the experience can conform to whatever the hardware has to offer. We shape our experiences around what is offered - controller, joystick, keyboard/mouse, Wiimote, Kinect sensor, Move, ect. So then, what is the experience? Title budget? I think we're going to see some significant AAA software in the next 1-2 years from smartphones, which will really show what is possible in the market place.

As for the demographics of the handheld and the smartphone, I believe that the smartphone market is too new and emerging to clearly define them as being totally separate. Smartphones are the blue ocean of consumer electronic devices. Last year, they made up about 20% of all mobile handset sales worldwide. This year, it may be 30-40%. Eventually, they will have the entire market place, and it will be split up between 3-4 major OS players. Given the sales data of iOS, when it happens, those markets will be larger than the 3DS market by notable margins. We can say what we want, but if Smartphones made $1 billion USD on just 20% of the market in 2010, then we know there is at least $5 billion worth of gaming software to be had for smartphones. If that is the case (and that is probably a low-end scenario, because the amount of phones sold to consumers is still increasing in emerging markets), then why wouldn't we see developers go after the $5 billion market with the major titles instead of the $3-4 billion handheld market?

Maybe Capcom won't put the next Street Fighter on smartphones exclusively, but you can be very well sure your going to be buying the same Street Fighter on your phone for $19.99 as you would on your 3DS at $39.99. At that point, consumers are going to see a major value in the phone, and buy them as gaming devices.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.