This is how iPhone is going to kill handheld consoles

[mrstickball]

RolStoppable said:

mrstickball said:

RolStoppable said:

On the point of developer interest, what does that really mean, if you use the Wii as example? We know how that turned out, so it's not exactly helping your argument. GTA Chinatown Wars on iOS closing in on the sales of the DS version also isn't much of an achievement. After all, the game is more appropriately priced on iOS and the sales of the DS version weren't that great to begin with which is why accusations of the game flopping were thrown around repeatedly.

Yes, a million-selling DS game is a flop :-  What game would you want to compare then? Civilization: Revolution which outsold the DS version 2:1 on iOS? My argument on developer interest is that when the Wii was new and different, you had a lot of interest and quite a few 3rd party games - major tentpoles like Monster Hunter, too. Today, the market isn't quite as favorable for the Wii.

As for the price comments - here is the thing: downloadable games have a better value proposition because the developers/publishers make more money. Therefore, they cost less, therefore people can buy more. That is why I said Nintendos' cartel model of controlling both production of carts and handhelds is doomed. They will need to go to a downloadable model which provides greater revenues for developers, and at that point, they become a direct iOS/Android competitor, which will be an uphill battle, as Nintendo's downloadable model is the worst of all services by far, and Android/iOS will have massive advantages.

Nintendo had no parties to help grow their DS and Wii userbases and look how that turned out. Nintendo alone pushed these two systems to great success, so suggesting that Nintendo couldn't do that again is the hilarious thing here. If Nintendo is going to fail, then it's going to be due to their own incompetence and not the rise of smartphones, Android and whatever else.

Interesting. You don't consider IPs like Dragon Quest to be important? My argument about Nintendo going it alone is that you can argue the DS/Wii had little 3rd party support, but both had a lot more than the one I mentioned - Gamecube. That is where the distinction must be made. In the future, I fear Nintendo will get less support than ever due to iOS/Android becoming a better value proposition for developers (cheaper and more revenue = more devs)

I don't get what should be so special about that new iOS IP I don't even know the name of when Pokémon is still going incredibly strong. If we are going to address our biases, then you are a Nintendo hater who repeatedly got facts wrong in the past to suit your agenda. Which you are once again doing by ignoring my entire point in your conclusion. People won't be able to buy Nintendo games on a smartphone and that's why Nintendo's handhelds will continue to maintain their relevance.

Angry Birds. Its had over 100 million downloads in just a year and a half. You may not know about it, but there are a lot of people that do. Can you tell me how I am a Nintendo hater? I am just being a realist in terms of what the future holds. I am not against all the great things Nintendo does. I loved the DS and owned one with a few games. Its a great device. You can keep saying that just because people can't buy Nintendo games on smartphones means Nintendo will always be in business is an incredible bad statement. Look at what happened when Nintendo had Nintendo games on the Gamecube. The hard truth is that although Nintendo IPs are an incredible thing to have, without other IPs in conjunction with good hardware, its doomed. We saw that for nearly 10 years with the N64 and Gamecube, and I believe Nintendo is heading there again, but this time with handhelds.

 

 

You are ignoring the consumer side regarding downloadable games. The value proposition of retail games is better, because consumers have the ability to sell their games. With downloadable games you can't do anything. If you get burned, you get burned badly unless it's a throwaway game that costs $2. But that's not the type of game we are talking about here, we are talking AAA development here which is more likely to be in the range of selling for around $20 at the very least.

If re-sale were so important, then why is Steam growing? You can't sell games there, but they are about a billion dollar a year market. The reality is, consumers don't care about resale as much as you'd think. Its why people own a ton of copies of SMB3 on Virtual Console, and the same reason they are willing to buy on Steam too - if the price is right, they could care less about resale. Furthermore, there isn't a major issue with making a $20 AAA game on iOS. The simple fact is that few people are trying to do it, but I think it has more to do with the will than the way. Grand Theft Auto was $9.99 for the majority of its lifespan, which made 2K about as much money per copy as it did on PSP at $19.99 due to the additional costs of physical distribution.

Dragon Quest certainly is of importance, but it's not even of global interest. It's unrealistic that third parties would put their biggest properties on smartphones, much less so as exclusives or definitive versions. There could be a billion smartphone owners, but if the vast majority of them isn't interested in paying more than $5 for a game (and that's the case), then it doesn't mean much.

A lot of people paid $6.99 for Infinity Blade, so I'd say your wrong. Given that Square is sending DS and PSP ports of their tentpole RPGs to the market at $6.99 and $9.99, I'd say there are games and developers willing to go at the higher price points, and feel they can be successful.

So it's Angry Birds we are talking about here, the game that made $70 million in revenue off of 100 million downloads. That's less than a dollar per download, certainly not an impressive figure. Sure, it's still a big success when you look at return on investment, but it's a one hit wonder. Everytime it comes to how wonderful the iOS platform is for developers, a few select successful games are mentioned. However, the batting average is terrible. For every successful game there are hundreds that didn't sell any notable numbers. Most companies have one hit covering the failures of their dozen(s) other games.

I don't disagree there are a lot of failures on the iOS market. However, its rarely the good games with marketing that do poorly. The ones that do poorly are the titles that some guy made in his basement and never spent a dollar on advertising.

Your stance regarding Nintendo is dominantly negative. The only way you can see Nintendo going is down. The Nintendo 64 and Gamecube are examples of Nintendo failing due to their own incompetence which is the only realistic reason why they can fail in the handheld business. Super Mario Bros. is Nintendo's biggest and longlived IP, but they didn't use it on the N64 and GC. A company abandoning it's biggest and most important series without anything to take its place, that is a clear sign of incompetence.

Uhhh. I played Mario 64 on the N64. First game I bought for my N64 too! Are you saying it didn't exist? Or are you saying that somehow Mario 64 wasn't in the Super Mario series? If so, you are crazy to think that, because I remember Nintendo Power hyping it every time they could as the successor to Super Mario World on SNES. It sold like a sequel to SMB too.