| archbrix said: He's referring to the 2D Super Mario games; you know, the ones that sell millions upon millions? I love Super Mario 64. It was of major importance IMO, as it showed how Nintendo could successfully achieve 3D gaming. But the N64 and the Gamecube both lacked a side-scrolling Mario game which (in addition to their 3D counterparts) would have undoubtedly made them sell even better and made their respective libraries more well-rounded. Your arguments about the future of handheld gaming are well founded but your conclusion is a bit over dramatic. Just as there will always be people who are content with simple, 10 minute fun with their "app" games, there will always be people who want real handheld games for a richer experience. One doesn't ultimately have to replace the other. Yes, a lot of people own smart phones, but not everyone who owns a phone plays games with them... and who buys one just for gaming? That's a pretty big risk for say, Capcom to release their next Street Fighter only for smart phones and ignore the latest handheld system completely... especially if it's made by Nintendo. As great as Angry Birds' 100m downloads are, it hasn't stopped NSMB from selling over 25m at around $30 a pop no less. And AB is a rare exception compared to the goliaths that are Mario Kart, Pokemon, Nintendogs, Brain Age and countless others that also perform very well. My conclusion is there is room for both the smart phone market and handhelds simply because they really do cater to different demographics for the most part. And if for some reason the market does dramatically sway away from a dedicated handheld device, as you said, Nintendo would ultimately find a way to adapt. |
Again, I'm speaking about SM64 from the point of view of the actual market when the game came out, not revisionist history to fit in with Sunshine and SMG 1 &2 and the 2D revival. If you were around the Nintendo market in the mid 90s at and prior to when SM64 came out, you'd know that SM64 was pitched as the sequel, not a spinoff or anything else. If anything, I think its that Nintendo was forced to revise its model by offering NSMB, then the rest is history in terms of sales. That isn't to argue that NSMB isn't the true sequel to the 2D titles (it is), but at the time, it was pitched as the successor. It can be proven, given that Nintendo didn't offer the 2D versions for quite some time, as the 3D titles were seen as the actual IP.
My question to you is: What constitutes a "real" handheld experience? Is it just physical buttons or a controller? If so, why did Nintendo do away with a regular controller with the Wii? I would argue that the experience can conform to whatever the hardware has to offer. We shape our experiences around what is offered - controller, joystick, keyboard/mouse, Wiimote, Kinect sensor, Move, ect. So then, what is the experience? Title budget? I think we're going to see some significant AAA software in the next 1-2 years from smartphones, which will really show what is possible in the market place.
As for the demographics of the handheld and the smartphone, I believe that the smartphone market is too new and emerging to clearly define them as being totally separate. Smartphones are the blue ocean of consumer electronic devices. Last year, they made up about 20% of all mobile handset sales worldwide. This year, it may be 30-40%. Eventually, they will have the entire market place, and it will be split up between 3-4 major OS players. Given the sales data of iOS, when it happens, those markets will be larger than the 3DS market by notable margins. We can say what we want, but if Smartphones made $1 billion USD on just 20% of the market in 2010, then we know there is at least $5 billion worth of gaming software to be had for smartphones. If that is the case (and that is probably a low-end scenario, because the amount of phones sold to consumers is still increasing in emerging markets), then why wouldn't we see developers go after the $5 billion market with the major titles instead of the $3-4 billion handheld market?
Maybe Capcom won't put the next Street Fighter on smartphones exclusively, but you can be very well sure your going to be buying the same Street Fighter on your phone for $19.99 as you would on your 3DS at $39.99. At that point, consumers are going to see a major value in the phone, and buy them as gaming devices.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
