My apologies. I should have included "lately" in my original post. :)

What's with this new trend of people just posting what they think is the case, when they can just use 30 seconds and check the data?

 Playstation 3 sales from start of January to week ending 19th March:

2011: 2531k
2010: 2780k

Drop of 9%

From start of February to week ending 19th March

2011: 1530k
2010: 1669k

 Drop of 9%

The Ps3 is pretty steadily down around 10% year on year, but it has had a few releases that spiked it to better results, leaving in an oveall of 9%.

Oh, and in case anyone was wondering, here's the YoY for the whole year so far compared to last

2010:

Wii: 3604k
Ps3: 2780k
X360: 1923k
PsP: 1991k
DS: 3715k
Ps2: 995k

2011:

DS: 2538k
Ps3: 2531k
Wii: 2356k
X360: 2250k
PsP: 1447k
Ps2: 694k

Difference:

Wii: Down 34%
DS:  Down 32%
Ps2: Down 31%
PsP: Down 28%
Ps3: Down 9%
X360: Up 17%

Killzone 3 legs better than LBP2..did not see that coming! (No sarcasm)

Lol, I can't even imagine the epic thread you will create when that 10 mil day happens.  The OP should just be a pic of a dead crow. 

This sounds hypocritical..

I think it's because people are lazy. To have to verify data for every single thread? GJ with the table, I should have looked at the YoY comparisions made by VGC before vaguly stating that PS3 sales are 15-25% lower YoY. I should have said 5-25%.

Regardless I still think both PS3 and 360 will sell 13-14 million in 2011. 15 million is possible for both, but honestly, a 7 year peak for 360? Realistically, since 360 does gain a lot of sales during the holidays season, no one can be absolute about their view until the year is over. Even then, large scale adjustments are likely to occer.

I don't think the overall sales difference between the two HD consoles will vary significantly, but at the rate it's going now I think PS3 will outsell 360 slightly. A price cut will boost both HD consoles sales, but since HD console sales are still strong, a price cut is not garenteed, or will likely not be any greater then $50. Also I think 360 has a better chance of outperforming its 2010 figure then PS3 does, which would imply that overall sales for both consoles will be close.

Focusing on my error in YoY down values is being nitpicky, and a cheap opportunity to attack my credibility (for those who did). The point is because YoY sales are down for PS3, and that 360 will not likely surpass it's second semester sales this year, expecting PS3 and 360 to peak in sales again is a bit excessive, but it's definatly possible. A 7 and 6 year peak is shocking if you ask me, it defies trends set by older generations. It would imply that PS3 WW sales break away from the PSP trend it's been following since launch (which also peaked in 5 years, then began to drop), and imply that 360 annual sales surpass PS2's for year 7.

I like these numbers.

Let's see what the X360 and Ps3 have to do to stay up YoY in Q2, then. I'll toss in the Wii too.

Quarter 2 sales for the 13 weeks ending 3rd July 2010:

Wii: 2736k (210k/week)
Ps3: 2235k (172k/week)
X360: 1691k (130k/week)

Let's compare those to the 2011 sales so far. First, the ones for the entire year up to now

Sales for the 10 weeks ending 19th March 2011

Wii: 2356k (235k/week)
Ps3: 2531k (253k/week)
X360: 2250k (225k/week)

Now, that includes the end of the holiday boost, so let's ignore January. Sales for the 7 week ending 19th March 2011:

Wii: 1323k (189k/week)
Ps3: 1530k (218k/week)
X360: 1385k (197k/week)

Now, Q2 sales tend to be lower than Q1 sales, mostly due to not having the end of the holiday season (so they shouldn't drop that much from the February and out nmbers). But a drop of 21% for the Ps3 and 34% for the X360 just seems unlikely to me.

I'd say they're both likely to drop by around 20% for the average of Q2 compared to Q1 (higher at first, slightly lower at the end), meaning Ps3 sales of around 175k/week and X360 sales of around 155k. The Wii will most likely average around 150k.

I see a Q2 with the Ps3 even YoY, the X360 up 20%, and the Wii down 28%.

After Q2, I thus see the Ps3 being down around 250k YoY (~ 6%), the X360 up around 700k (18%) and the Wii down a bit.

From there on in, the Ps3 performed quite lackluster last year, so it could without too much trouble tie those sales, while the X360 should be down a bit in Q3. In that quarter, the 360 averaged 200k and the Ps3 180k.

The holiday quarter will be nigh impossible to predict, but both the X360 and Ps3 look to have (roughly) as good a combined Q1-Q3 in 2011 as they did in 2010. The Ps3 possibly down a bit, and they X360 most likely up a bit.

I agree  with some of your conclusions, but not your method of analysis. I don't think it's proper to compare spring 2010 sales with winter 2011 sales. None of the consoles will hold sales as strong as last last 2 months, they will all continue to drop slowly until September hits.

However applying the scaling set this year would be appropriate. So Wii down 34%, PS3 down 9%, and 360 up 17%. Applying that to Q2 2010 figures we would see Wii selling an average of 138.6k weekly, PS3 selling 156.5k weekly and 360 selling about 152.1k weekly. However you data included 360 Slim launch, which will likely reduce the ratio for 360, so anything between 135k to 150k would be appropriatr for 360.

IMO for Q3 PS3 sales will continue to be about 10% below 2010's figure and 360 will likely be about the same. Except for the weeks 360 slim launched in various regions, PS3 and 360 sold about equally well in Q3 prior to Move. So I would expect both of them to sell about the same Q3. 360 will likely begin to pick up in September when Gears 3 is released, but now until September I expect PS3 and 360 to be in a statistical tie, or with 5% sales of each other.

After that, who knows what could happen. Without a price cut, PS3 could see sales as low as 15-25% down YoY. 360 should be less because Kinect will push consoles in September/October for 2011, and second generation Kinect sales will likely be strong. Without a price cut, I'd expect 360 sales to be down 10-20%. This would imply PS3 annual sales between 10.8 and 12.3 million, and 360 sales roughly between the same region of sales (10.8 and 12.25 million).

However I think both consoles will get a price cut of about $50 or so, and it will boost both console sales equally. I think a small price cut will add 2 million annual sales, so a range of appoximatly 12.8-14.3 million sales for both the PS3 and 360 seem likely to me.

That's my opinion, regardless of which console sells better, I con't see the difference being too massive between the two.

I see... So 10 million with light, seasonal bundling and greatest hits release. This will be interesting. I don't suppose I could tempt you into predicting an approximate calendar period for this unlikely milestone? 

The thread title is so wrong that I thought was the WW of this week.

The right title: WW 19th march up! 

I just realize that today.