for the beginning of PS3's life, Sony supported both machines quite well and so did thrird parties, I doubt Nintendo can focus on releasing games for the DS, 3DS and Wii for any real length of time, and the PS2 is selling in emerging markets, Nintendo doesn't have the infrastructure to sell in those regions

I didn't know the GBA sold so much after the DS release, but I suppose the DS could last a while from a price perspective (the 3DS is twice the price of the DS), and a DS price cut right before Christmas would do wonders to make it sell (but that may take 3DS sales away, albeit for the time being)

There's a few games still coming to the DS, such as the new kirby and plants V zombies in EMEAA.

Hardware may be little disappointing but software on the other hand isnt

Wii is doing pretty good!

Yeah, eventually. They'll have to bundle the hell out of that game, though.

I didn't know about Kirby, but I doubt that will appeal to those outside the hardcore Nintendo fans, and Plants Vs Zombies is available on every other platform (and online too in a browser), so I doubt that will sell well

There is no garentee 360 will be down second semester. A price cut will boost sales substantially, and past records for PS3/360 indicate this could boost sales by as much as 3 million. Kinect boosted 360 fall sales by about 2 million, and Slim did about 1. If 360 holds stronger numbers for the first semester, and manages to tie last years second semesters numbers with a price cut and a strong Kinect lineup (which should still boost fall sales considerably over pre-kinect falls), then 360 may have its peak year on it's 7th year from launch. Crazy, but so was a 6 year peak.

This means it's possible for 360 to outsell last years figure. Even if a potential (not garenteed) price cut doesn't boost sales, second year Kinect sales will still be strong.

On the same token, PS3 could also have a peak year. It may be tracking about 20% lower then last year, but software is stronger this fall for PS3, and a price cut may push more consoles then Move. I don't think PS3 will break it's sales record for 2010, but I think it's possible for it to make 14 million.

At the same time, a price cut may not happen. Sony and MS never garenteed it, and in reality both HD consoles are selling well. Nintendo didn't cut price with the Wii last year and it was in a larger decline.

So nothing is garenteed, and everything is speculation. Personally I think the PS3 and 360 will sell about the same number of units as each other this year. I think both will sell about 13 million, with a $50 price cut. PS3 will regain maybe a million sales before September, but 360 should at least match PS3 sales in the holidays, if not regain that million difference lost.

Also if a price cut happens, I don't think it will be enough to make up for the 20% deficit PS3 is having over last year numbers AND Move. So 13-14 million to me seems reasonable. I also think a 360 price cut and a relatively strong Kinect lineup will keep 360's second semester figure close to last years. It may be down 1 million, but with 10-20% gains YoY, first semester sales make up for it. Still 13-14 million sales seem reasonable. I don't think the overall difference between the consoles will change much. Best/Worst case is a 2.5 million or a 5 million sales difference is possible.

It's too early to be certain of anything, and I know with 5th and 6th year peak sales, PS3 and 360 sales are just too wonky to predict.

I know Forza 2 is largely bundled, but Forza 3 sold most of its copies on it's own. I know before the Forza/Alan Wake bundle, Forza 3 sold about 3.3 million units on it's own accord. When the bundle ended it was at 4.67 million. The week the Ultimate Edition released, Forza 3 weekly sales jumped, and even before that the game was selling 10-20k weekly. I think at the very most 1 million of Forza 3's sales are bundled. So when the game does break 5 million, I think it's fair to say the game sold 4 million on it's own accord. If GT5 sells 9 million lifetime, thats almost half the volume.

That to me counts as competition. Camero's only sell a 5th as well as Mustangs, but they are still rivals are they not? Had Chevy not introduced the 300hp V6 and 400hp V8, would Ford have done it on their own? Maybe, but not as fast.

BTW Prologue sales for GT5 were bundled too, so :P.

Forza 2 was not reviewed better then GT4. Forza 2 got a lot of reviews in the 8.5-9.0 range, when GT4 got 9.5 plus generally. Forza 3 got many scores in the 9.0-9.5 range, where GT5 was 8.5-9.0.

However this doesn't mean Forza 3 is better then GT5. GT5 came out a year after Forza 3, people expected the game to be better. If the game is just as good as Forza 3, but came out a year later. Naturally reviews would be lower. If GT1 came out as is now, it would get a 5/10 as a $60 game. People expect improvement in the genre.

Also Forza may not outsell GT anytime soon, but Forza 4 may outsell GT5/6 in the Americas region. That would still be a win for Forza, and a sign of competition and growth.

No it's not. Kinect will only be in its second year. Since when has any peripheral seen a noticable price cut in a single year?

However I agree 360 may hold sales on par to last year. It's scaling 10-20% better on a weekly basis and a potential $50 price cut, and stronger Kinect support should be enough to keep things balanced.

I think the gap between the two HD consoles will go back up to 4 million by the end of 2011, but I accept the possibility of it dropping to 2.5 million, or even going up to 5 million. It's too early to tell, I mean up until Killzone 3, PS3 was on par with 360, and now it's selling better? Adjustments may still change that too.