I couldn't imagine Sony would give either Microsoft or Nintendo more than a 12 month lead in the next generation ... If a console is moderately successful, after 18 months without competition it will become (nearly) impossible to unseat it as the lead console because it will always be cheaper, have a better library and have strong third party support.

 And your reasoning?

I think Nintendo will be the last to leave this gen, if their previous 1st place consoles are any indicators (NES, SNES).

With Microsoft and Sony, I seriously have no clue.

Sony will wait until there compitetors release there high end nex gen consles.


Whether it will be XBOX 1080

or Nintendo Revolution

Son will release the PS4 2-3 years after there competitors and make it a graphics powerhouse.

Realistically, in 4 or 5 years the hardware that is available will be able to (roughly) approximate Pixar movies that are being released today; waiting 2 or 3 years after that point offers no benefit because any graphical enhancements that are added to the game from the hardware will not be noticed by anyone.

I think that MS will try to lead off the next generation again. There won't be a clear winner between PS3 and 360 this gen, and the only two advantages 360 really has over PS3 is an earlier release and an aggressive courtship of developers. MS will want to get that early-release advantage again next gen, and I also think that X360's hardware will start to seem old before PS3's will, mostly because the 360 controller is the most old-fashioned this gen.

I think that Sony will be interested in squeezing as much as they can out of the hardware they've sunk so much money into (R&D, marketing and loss-leading) before they're willing to invest another truckload of cash into the next generation.

Wii will ride the honeymoon of the victor this generation and last at least 6 years. They'll probably release their next console whenever they feel they've perfected their next control scheme, which may or may not come before Sony has their PS4 out.

They all claim to want to come out of the gate first for the lead but in my opinion Sony is most likely next gen. There are reasons however i dont feel like explaining myself.