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Forums - General - Ron Paul For President in 2008

N-Syte said:
@Final-Fan

What does my deriding you with my wit have to do with challenging your flawed correlation of White House occupancy and national debt? And whoever said that Congress was solely responsible? I clearly said I would be willing to hear you out if you wanted to claim the responsibility was shared by both branches. My bias is that it is shared, but Congress holds the greater responsibility for the act of passing spending bills – it’s a simple matter of degree. Intellectually dishonest? I think not. I just don’t know of anyone who would say differently (except you). It’s OK if you believe the executive branch is more responsible for spending legislation. Make the case. It may be an argument I have never heard before… Ever.

You’re going to compare Iraq war spending provisions with other non-defense related spending? Kind of a politically loaded example, eh?

You’re funny. Deduct all defense spending then!

Sorry about that; I was tired.

What I meant was that the shot about fat women in Spandex eating Twinkies was so far off any conceivable point that there is no rhetorical purpose I can see; just pure insults. I may fail to take the high ground in our little debate but you picked a valley and started digging.

As for deficit spending: A conflict like that will run huge deficits no matter who is running the show. Unless you think that Republicans would have managed the insane war production of 1942-1945 without als0-massive deficits?

I'm not proposing to cut all defense spending. But you'll notice that the deficit spending for the entire DECADE of the 1960s, with "Spendocrats" in office running a war you might have heard of, ran a smaller deficit than four of the individual YEARS of Reagan's term of office.

I'm still running the numbers.



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

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Sneak peek: Even including WWII numbers, the AVERAGE deficit by Democrats vs. Republicans, giving equal weight to President's party, Senate majority party, and House majority party, yields an average of -45.84 R, -47.61 D. Hardly conclusive. Taking out WWII numbers in favor of substituting the WWII-inclusive average (for 1942-45) yields an adjusted average of -37.98 D. Nice! (No, I did not forget to multiply the average by three per year for that period.)



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

@ Final-Fan

Firstly, the analogy with the Twinkie eating woman was very appropriate. You appear to sell yourself as some kind of intellectual yet there is rarely a sign of any mental rigor behind your arguments. Was the analogy a bit on the colorful side? Sure, but it was also fitting. You seem to fly by the seat of your pants, flailing wildly hoping something hits the target. And now I have the joy of waiting for your math to prove that liberals have no real interest in big government. In fact they are really libertarian in their fiscal responsibility (somebody please notify the Democratic party). In any event, take it more as a challenge than an insult.

While I care little either way, it is amusing to see how quickly you shifted to “which party is responsible for the debt.” My joiner was to only point out how misleading the basis for your correlation was. I presume you concede that point since you are going through your mathematical gymnastics in hopes of arriving to a similar corollary by another means. I thought your primary purpose was to defend tax increases? Instead you took a decidedly political turn.

As far as WWII is concerned, of course I am full support of the investment required to achieve a military victory against fascism. When I said drop defense spending, I meant to drop it from all years. Was Cold War spending so much more discretionary than WWII? (some would claim the former was a drawn out continuation of the latter) You might be careful about what you cherry pick.



The racism of others does not excuse the racism of Ron Paul. If that's your angle, Entroper, you might wanna back up. My claim of Ron Paul's Racism is not explained away by racist blacks.

It also is not explained away by the "distance" Ron Paul had from his racist newsletter. In this instance, he's either a racist or allows others to do his talking for him in his name, or he lacks even the desire to provide oversight to something that even bears his name. All are bad qualities in a leader. I'd at least hope his racist views were his own, and not a surrogate's.

Ron Paul also has this uncanny ability to attract the support of these White Supremacists. Not just that one guy now, even David Duke (KKK Member) has thrown in his lot with him, as well Stormfront.org. Normally these guys just stay in their compounds and don't vote for candidates that "caters to minorities." Yet they are willing to come out of their holes to vote for this guy, even donate money to him. Why?

I mean if all the American Muslims and known members of Arabic terrorist organizations suddenly started voting for a presidential candidate, wouldn't you think that would be a bit suspicious.

And my point is twofold. #1 He's a racist. #2 He's unelectable, because of #1.

He might be a Constitutionalist, but maybe he might wanna read some of the amendments, too. He might still think blacks and other minorities are worth 3/5 of the vote.



Year : President : Senate : House : Debt Chage, inflation adjusted, (I assume in $billions)
1930 : R : R : R : -9 ::: 1957 : R : D : D : 25 ::: 1984 : R : R : D : -372
1931 : R : R : R : -7 ::: 1958 : R : D : D : -20 ::: 1985 : R : R : D : -411
1932 : R : R : R : -41 ::: 1959 : R : D : D : -92 ::: 1986 : R : R : D : -420
1933 : R : R : R : -42 ::: 1960 : R : D : D : 2 ::: 1987 : R : R : D : -275
1934 : D : D : D : -56 ::: 1961 : R : D : D : -23 ::: 1988 : R : D : D : -274
1935 : D : D : D : -43 ::: 1962 : D : D : D : -49 ::: 1989 : R : D : D : -256
1936 : D : D : D : -65 ::: 1963 : D : D : D : -33 ::: 1990 : R : D : D : -353
1937 : D : D : D : -32 ::: 1964 : D : D : D : -40 ::: 1991 : R : D : D : -412
1938 : D : D : D : -1 ::: 1965 : D : D : D : -9 ::: 1992 : R : D : D : -432
1939 : D : D : D : -42 ::: 1966 : D : D : D : -24 ::: 1993 : R : D : D : -368
1940 : D : D : D : -43 ::: 1967 : D : D : D : -54 ::: 1994 : D : D : D : -285
1941 : D : D : D : -70 ::: 1968 : D : D : D : -151 ::: 1995 : D : D : D : -224
1942 : D : D : D : -262 ::: 1969 : D : D : D : 18 ::: 1996 : D : R : R : -143
1943 : D : D : D : -658 ::: 1970 : R : D : D : -15 ::: 1997 : D : R : R : -28
1944 : D : D : D : -564 ::: 1971 : R : D : D : -118 ::: 1998 : D : R : R : 88
1945 : D : D : D : -551 ::: 1972 : R : D : D : -117 ::: 1999 : D : R : R : 157
1946 : D : D : D : -170 ::: 1973 : R : D : D : -70 ::: 2000 : D : R : R : 286
1947 : D : D : D : 37 ::: 1974 : R : D : D : -26 ::: 2001 : D : R : R : 151
1948 : D : R : R : 102 ::: 1975 : R : D : D : -206 ::: 2002 : R : D : R : -182
1949 : D : R : R : 5 ::: 1976 : R : D : D : -270 ::: 2003 : R : R : R : -428
1950 : D : D : D : -27 ::: 1977 : R : D : D : -185 ::: 2004 : R : R : R : -456
1951 : D : D : D : 49 ::: 1978 : D : D : D : -189 ::: 2005 : R : R : R : -340
1952 : D : D : D : -12 ::: 1979 : D : D : D : -117 ::: 2006 : R : R : R : -257
1953 : D : D : D : -51 ::: 1980 : D : D : D : -187 ::: 2007 : R : R : R : -163
1954 : R : R : R : -10 ::: 1981 : D : D : D : -281 :::
1955 : R : R : R : -23 ::: 1982 : R : R : D : -276 :::
1956 : R : D : D : 30 ::: 1983 : R : R : D : -435 :::

(DISCLAIMER: These numbers were calculated with only a calculator, so transposed digits, etc. are possible and the only way to error-check was to do it all over again and see if the results match. Some errors were found and others may yet remain. None are intentional.)

Corrected numbers: the average per 1/3 FY budget difference for the entire period is: Republicans -47.18, Democrats -46.99. Discarding the period of 1942-1945 gives us Republicans -47.18, Democrats -34.41.

Recalculating for a 50-year period (1957-2007) gives us Republicans -62.97, Democrats -49.91.

A 25-year period is the only period in which Republicans scored lower deficit weighted averages than Democrats (75.92, 94.83) and I contend that that result is largely the direct result of Republican scores benefiting from the Democratic tax hikes of the early '90s (the rapidly declining deficits and historic surpluses of the mid-to-late '90s).



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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@damkira

Missed the point? I simply challenged your belief that the world would be better off if the US military umbrella were pulled away. I countered with why it would have a destabilizing effect. I illustrated my point with a few examples from around the globe. Yet you want to make this about US support for Israel? And I am the one who is missing the point?

Alright, alright we can talk about Israel already! Had the US not supported Israel, it would likely no longer exist. While that certainly would not be a good thing for Jews, it probably would not be so great for the Arab population either. The condition of most Arabs in Israel is manifestly better than most Arabs in Arab countries. The US should do what it can to support democratic countries with common values surrounded by hostile despotic regimes. Would you turn your back on a friend about to be jumped by a gang of thugs? Would that friendship suddenly become expendable if it required some sacrifice on your part? The West did not act in time to aid the Jews during WWII. That is not a mistake it should make twice. Of course all of this is moot when you consider the Middle East collectively receives more than Israel (Egypt along has historically been at about 2/3 the level of Israel – not too far behind).

Why are you spouting Syrian demographic information? Do you really believe Syria is a democracy? Apparently so, because why else would it matter? Assad is Shia. Syria is a huge supporter of Hezbollah, a Shia sect. Syria and Iran have a declared alliance. So what are you talking about? The alliance between these countries is not exactly a secret, nor is it a secret that countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt see them more as threats than pals. Is any of this sinking in? Must we rehash this over and over again? Oh, what the heck. See what you can blindly pull off Wikipedia and we’ll see where it goes.

You don’t see how the ‘91 Persian Gulf conflict could be connected to the current US invasion? Is it because I already stated explicitly how they are connected? Must everything be repeated? Saddam lost. Conditions were placed on Iraq. They did not comply and there were consequences, including the resumption of military action.

Great! If you are not critical of US policy in Pakistan we are on the same page!

You may not appreciate my “ridiculous exaggeration”, but that is exactly how you come across. Do you really think you will change anyone’s mind when you run roughshod making sweeping accusations of how Bush and his administration are guilty of war crimes? What about Blair? And Howard, too? What about the contributions of other nations to the invasion? Should all of those leaders be tried?

You want to be taken seriously? Then back up your statements. Using your standard, have there been any wars fought through the ages that have been entered into justly? How were those wars fought in such a way to avoid all the alleged crimes you believe have been committed by Bush?

If Bush’s criminal intent is so obvious, why are there not more voices calling for his trial (short of the Chomsky crowd)? He’s certainly not a popular president; it would appear any time would be good especially if it would mean ending the killing, no? Surely, others would have noticed!

I think what I find so sickening about your thinking is the moral equivalency you toss around so breezily. You speak of the horrors of Bush’s war in no different terms then one would speak of the rape of Nanking, or the genocide of Rwanda, or the killing fields of Cambodia, or the Bataan Death March, or the death camps of Eastern Europe. You use such apocalyptic platitudes in order to demonstrate just how evil Bush is, but all you really succeed in doing is diminishing those true horrors perpetrated on man throughout history that bear absolutely no likeness whatsoever to what is trying to be achieved in Iraq. It’s revolting.



N-Syte said:
@ Final-Fan
A bit touchy, eh? If cutting spending is so important to you, then why is it so much of your passion is devoted to defending increasing the taxing power of government?

Let’s start with the last tax cut. Bush signed it into law May 28, 2003.

And now let’s look at receipts of each fiscal year since then against GDP.
03 Total Receipts: $1,969B GDP: 10,828B = 18.2%           16.5%  (OMB)
04 Total Receipts: $2,034B GDP: 11,712B = 17.3%           16.3%  (OMB)
05 Total Receipts: $2,287B GDP: 12,042B = 18.4%           17.5%  (OMB Est)
06 Total Receipts: $2,537B GDP: 12,641B = 19.4%           17.5%  (OMB Est)
07 Total Receipts: $2,709B GDP: 13,543B = 20.0% (Est)   17.6% (OMB Est)

Since you won’t allow me to use my nutso economists as sources, I resorted to using data from the IRS. (I guess I wouldn’t have to if I was able to use the smart, sophisticated economists you turn to. Let me guess, Krugman?)  I also added the percentages from the Office and Management Budget.  The post war average is about 17.9%.

Sure the rate drops in ’04, but would you give them at least one year to take effect? It’s not as if signing a bill works like a light switch. What’s even more stunning is that this was achieved during a period of war and dramatic increases in fuel costs.

We could go through the same exercise in the 80’s, the 60’s, and the 20’s. Shall we make it a game where you pick the decade? Maybe we could look at the inverse when taxes were increased?

Look at corporate taxes. In 1985 the Brits were the first to kick off what turned into a tidal wave of corporate tax cuts across the West (those other nations needed to stay competitive, no?) When you look at the 20 or so countries that cut their rates, the results are stunning. Some cut there rates by a third, while others slashed them by nearly a half. The result is the same. Receipts as a percentage of GDP went up remarkably. OK, OK many of those countries also reduced the depreciation corps could claim (a tax shield, but you already knew that). But the results have been the same even after the impact of depreciation is phased out.

Well, of course the tax base would need to increase! What do you think economic growth does? Yet you are skeptical that tax cuts could some how contribute to that growth? I give up!

I’ve already said that my first preference would be to cut spending. I’ve simply challenged your proposition that raising taxes to reduce the debt is the better alternative if we must spend like drunken sailors. And yes, the debt went up dramatically over the last seven years. Embarrassingly so. But it was the spending side that drove it, not mythical declines in tax receipts.

As far as how severe US debt is on a relative basis, here is a sampling:
2005 Debt vs GDP
US 75%
Denmark 204%
Canada 48% (go Canucks!)
France 155%
Germany 156%
Spain 88%
Sweden 194%
Belgium 302% (and top income tax rate is 50%! Ouch)
Norway 159%
Swiss 350%
Britain 394%

You can wax on into infinitum about the joys of tax increases, but if you really want to keep this nightmare from reaching the US, run away from any candidate advocating government solutions to societal problems. Any candidates pushing a program beginning with the word “universal” is a good start.

Blast from the past. I think that this debate is has spread its tentacles far enough without dragging Europe into it.  I don't mean this as a dodge but as an acknowedgement that I have little knowledge of that situation, and that Europe is far different from America both in economic dynamics, tax level, and hundreds of other things; and I frankly don't want to add such a huge area of research to my plate; and I'm wholly unconvinced Europe's lessons (whatever they may be) would necessarily be applicable to the US anyway. 

As for America:  http://www.factcheck.org/taxes/supply-side_spin.html
The increased tax revenues you claim to be the result of the '03 tax cut are merely recovering numbers from the '01 tax cut, which you would know if you had investigated my claim of multiple years of declining absolute tax revenue.  Since as you say tax revenue always goes up (with inflation and the growth of the economy) then it is only natural that at SOME point tax revenues had to stop declining and recover.  But looking at the graph I think it's clear that tax cuts do in fact decrease revenue, or in the case of moderate tax cuts in a growing economy, decrease the rate of increase in tax revenue. 


"The impact of the tax cuts on economic growth is a matter of debate among economists. We're not voicing a view on whether the tax cuts should have been enacted; that, too, is a separate discussion. But it is clear they did not "increase revenues.""

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

N-Syte said:
@ Final-Fan

Firstly, the analogy with the Twinkie eating woman was very appropriate. You appear to sell yourself as some kind of intellectual yet there is rarely a sign of any mental rigor behind your arguments. Was the analogy a bit on the colorful side? Sure, but it was also fitting. You seem to fly by the seat of your pants, flailing wildly hoping something hits the target. And now I have the joy of waiting for your math to prove that liberals have no real interest in big government. In fact they are really libertarian in their fiscal responsibility (somebody please notify the Democratic party). In any event, take it more as a challenge than an insult.

While I care little either way, it is amusing to see how quickly you shifted to “which party is responsible for the debt.” My joiner was to only point out how misleading the basis for your correlation was. I presume you concede that point since you are going through your mathematical gymnastics in hopes of arriving to a similar corollary by another means. I thought your primary purpose was to defend tax increases? Instead you took a decidedly political turn.

As far as WWII is concerned, of course I am full support of the investment required to achieve a military victory against fascism. When I said drop defense spending, I meant to drop it from all years. Was Cold War spending so much more discretionary than WWII? (some would claim the former was a drawn out continuation of the latter) You might be careful about what you cherry pick.

I admit I have not been at my best in our exchange, but I don't think "flailing wildly" is anywhere close to accurate.  I'll also admit that I've allowed this debate to drift away from where it started, but you've added your share to that drifting.  I hope you do enjoy my math.  I think that the numbers actually favor the Republicans, since I think the administration of the President has considerably more than one-third of the influence over the budget between it and Congress, and the House of Representatives has been Democratic for the great majority of the sample time. 

Actually, the debate has always been about which party is responsible for the debt, ever since I kicked it off by asserting that Republicans are not fiscally conservative and have not been for a long time.  For me, "fiscally conservative" and "reducing the deficit/debt" are very closely tied indeed.  So in fact, if the debate has drifted, it's drifted right back to where it should be!  I find it amusing that you seem to have forgotten such a basic fact, when I've generally been the forgetful one in this debate. 

(Although, looking back, I see you've forgotten to answer such challenges as "Can you name even one era of American history in which cutting taxes led directly (in a cause-effect relationship) to a subsequent decrease in spending?")

The point about WWII is that the deficit spending there is clearly anomalous.  I am leery of any comparison equating that spending to that of the Cold War, (A) for the obvious reason that that was an all-out war effort the likes of which have not been seen in this nation since the Civil War and have not been seen again; (B) because for the next three decades of the Cold War, deficit spending advanced only at a crawl, and really exploded only when - surprise, surprise! - a tax-cutting Republican took office and like-minded Republicans took the Senate; and (C) because look at the numbersTell me why I am "cherry picking" when I exclude WWII.  Like I said, a Democratically-administered war went on for over a decade and saw less deficit growth in a decade than under any one of four years of Reagan's term of office, so it's not "Dems + War = Hyoog Deffusit".  Anyway, it's irrelevant because even with WWII included, the Democrats were less deficit-happy than Republicans.  Which I've already pointed out. 


Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Thought I'd restate this for clarity, and remind us of what my central point is (aside from Republicans being cut-and-spend):

CUTTING TAXES DOES NOT CAUSE POLITICIANS TO CUT SPENDING. IF YOU WANT TO CUT SPENDING, CUT THE FUCKING SPENDING. DO NOT VOTE FOR ANYONE WHO WILL CUT TAXES AND NOT CUT SPENDING, BECAUSE THAT IS A VOTE AGAINST THE FISCAL SOLVENCY OF OUR NATION. That is my point.

Oh, yeah, and pay down the debt. Call it an early Christmas present to your unborn grandchildren.


Your reply:

A bit touchy, eh? If cutting spending is so important to you, then why is it so much of your passion is devoted to defending increasing the taxing power of government?


It was in all-caps to try to get people to recognize its importance and read it carefully. I don't think you entirely got the message.

High taxes and high spending is a burden on the taxpayer today. Low taxes and high spending is a burden on the taxpayer tomorrow -- with interest. Strict observance of Pay-Go rules along with a program of debt reduction is the only responsible course of action with respect to future generations, and would bring home to taxpayers the importance of reining in spending.

To restate: Pay-Go and debt reduction will show taxpayers the true cost of the programs they receive, and they can then vote for whomever gives them the level of government spending they want to pay for -- not what they want their children to have to pay for.

THE ABOVE TWO PARAGRAPHS ARE CRITICAL TO MY ENTIRE POSITION ON THE DEBT, THE DEFICIT, TAXES, AND SPENDING. I ASK THAT YOU READ THOSE PARAGRAPHS IF YOU HAVE ANY DESIRE AT ALL TO UNDERSTAND WHERE I AM COMING FROM.

Please also respond with your thoughts about what I say in those paragraphs.



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

P.S. As you might be able to infer, I generally oppose tax cuts and favor tax increases because it is the fiscally responsible version of "starve the beast" -- instead of cutting taxes, creating massive deficits that saddle our descendants with horrific debt necessitating draconian program slashing in the name of government survival, I want to increase taxes, paying off our debt, until public pressure demands that fat be trimmed and unnecessary programs be cut back to allow a commensurate tax break. I think we have different opinions on where the equilibrium lies (between what people want and what they'll pay for), but that's not relevant at all.

P.P.S. Assertion: "Starve the beast" is an abomination either idiotic or evil depending on how stupid its proponents are. Challenge: agree/disagree.



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom!