Nice to see a gap chart from you again.

I think this holiday period will be crucial as to whether the PS3 will ever overtake the 360. If it doesn't make serious inroads in the holidays, I don't think it will ever overtake.

Hasn't the PS3 outsold the 360 last 2 months? It has been doing 100,000 every month so it should take around Jan 14 if Sony didn't do sh*t by then.

So to do it by 2012 end it has to do around 175,000 lead every month not unrealistic. 

Microsoft seems unable to largen the gap.

So Sony could do it given time.

it'll happen its just a matter of time now

It's likely going to be a similar scenario to what happened in September 09 - June 10 when 360 and PS3 cut price again. 360 is about to close in on saturation in North America and a price cut will likely have a similar impact to the price cut that DS had last year (ie. almost no impact). PS3 will probably pick up a huge amount of steam this year, particularly in Europe, if it sees a £50/€60 cut.

I have a feeling this graph chart will look completly diffrent after shipment results. If February NPD had 20-25% diffrence to our numbers there's high chance situation in Europe is completly diffrent than we see.

Yeah, when Sony catches up to MS, it doesn't matter any more. But when MS is ahead it matters.

Right.

The same saturation that XBox360 faces in USA, PS3 faces in Japan and Europe. It's wishful thinking to consider them as different scenarios, when the circumstances are similar.

I think something that most "gap" threads miss is that the larger the install bases are, the less difference said gap is making.

Back when 360 had say, 10 million install base and PS3 had 5 million, that's double the install base, which might be significant for a developer, for example, to decide on making a game exclusive for one system.

Now, with one console at around 55 million, and other at 50 million, the difference is a mere 10%. Such difference tends to get even lower as long as they continue selling, so I think even if PS3 doesn't surpass the 360 anymore, it just doesn't matter. MS managed to get its great marketshare, and Sony managed to prevent the PS3 from failing.

I think that he implies that no one would have thought before this generation that Sony would face a >5 Bn US$ accumulated loss and to be fighting for the second place, while MS will sell more than two and a half times the amount they sold last generation. It would matter much, it's the big numbers that matter. The fight for the second place is only important as a PR weapon in the fanboys wars.