My money is on kinect running out of steam 6 months into the year at most end of the year I really can't see kinect going for 5 

Based on what?, were 3 months into the year already and Kinect is still doing amazingly.

I just think it will take that long for people to realize no super amazing revolutionary games are coming for it 

the casual consumer doesnt give a shit, Kinect Adventures and the like is all the revolutionary they need to buy it.

see Wii sports and the like for an example of what im talking bout.

the casual consumer already has wii, people buying kinect are people with old 360s who think it's going to revolutionize gaming

NPD doesn't say so, as 3/5 of 360 sold are kinect bundles.

But do they buy X360 because they want Kinect or do they buy Kinect bundle because shortages don't leave them much choice?

It's likely going to be a similar scenario to what happened in September 09 - June 10 when 360 and PS3 cut price again. 360 is about to close in on saturation in North America and a price cut will likely have a similar impact to the price cut that DS had last year (ie. almost no impact). PS3 will probably pick up a huge amount of steam this year, particularly in Europe, if it sees a £50/€60 cut.

I think something that most "gap" threads miss is that the larger the install bases are, the less difference said gap is making.

Back when 360 had say, 10 million install base and PS3 had 5 million, that's double the install base, which might be significant for a developer, for example, to decide on making a game exclusive for one system.

Now, with one console at around 55 million, and other at 50 million, the difference is a mere 10%. Such difference tends to get even lower as long as they continue selling, so I think even if PS3 doesn't surpass the 360 anymore, it just doesn't matter. MS managed to get its great marketshare, and Sony managed to prevent the PS3 from failing.