That looks like a skull

A Watcher is someone who picks someone to watch at night and sees if someone "visited" that person. So say Final-Fan had picked to watch radish last night, he would have spotted whoever killed him (had he not died of course).

It's kinda the inverse of the Tracker role who picks someone to follow and knows what that person did at night.

Now on to the aftermath of last night. It's been a while since we had two deaths in a night.

Two options have been brought forward by other players:

- Two Mafia factions: I'm not inclined to believe this one because of the size of the game and the fact that theRepublic has helped balanced this game (I'm pretty sure he would have objected to this) and also because I believe radish would have been labelled Mafia A or B in the OP.
- Linkzmax puts all deaths in the same color: I'd put my money on this option. Whether because Linkz has never been in a multi-death game or because he simply decided not to gives us clues as to who killed who.

Going by this, hatmoza's bus driver theory is possible only if a SK/vigilante killed Final-Fan and whoever the Mafia targetted got switched with radish. The more likely event here is that everyone succeeded in killing who they wanted dead. This means radish's death was at the hands of either a vigilante or a serial killer.

In the case of a vigilante, it's kind of an irresponsible move to kill on the first night. It would have to be a new player or Wonk wanting to prove his theory from last game :P

That leaves the serial killer as the most probable option for radish's murder.

Thank you for this precision.

Now, the Mafia A and B theory seems a bit more possible.

About #2, I'm not liking it very much. One of the strengths of the Mafia is that they benefit from many points of view to make their decision and guide their actions. Apart from the obvious benefits of having a Mafia dead, another reward for the town was that the Mafia had one less mind to plan their evil schemes.

I'm not sure what you're implying here. Correct me if I'm wrong:

You're saying that the Mafia had a chance to exchange their names/roles at the beginning of Day One (which has been common recently), that someone other than radish said "I'm a Sibling, my brother is X" and then radish slipped by using sentences that implied he knew someone in the town was a sibling. And now you want the sibling to sacrifice himself so we can kill the Mafia member by killing his brother?

Here's someone who could counter Gnizmo's "name equals alignment" theory. Wonk admitted to being Archimonde yesterday and like Metal_Gear said that's a very evil person!

I wasn't judging your idea but there was lots of blanks to fill in to get the essence of what your were proposing. I wanted to make sure I filled them correctly.

The good/bad sibling pair is pretty frequent but a good/good pair is also possible. With this in mind a townie sibling can't automatically assume his brother is evil which means him knowing his brother's name doesn't gimp the Mafia.

Also, I'm pretty sure siblings always know who their brother/sister is. Can someone back me up on this? My recollection might be tainted by the fact that I wouldn't personally consider adding siblings who don't know each other in a game I'm modding.

Did I miss something? I never saw Gnizmo saying Vetteman was a likely target, he's been pretty focused on Darth since the beginning of the day.

At this point, I think there's too many people saying alignments don't match to go along with your theory. That being said, I wouldn't mind lynching Darth for his lurker status and the arkwark timing of his roleclaim. He could have very well made it because he figured we'd think a Mafia wouldn't dare make such a claim.

On the contrary it does match but I'm having problems believing 3 or 4 Mafia players would have come forward and said "I don't match" when they knew they'd fall under suspicion of the town. Especially considering most nameclaims were done after you exposed your theory of matched alignments.

If I remember correctly, he turns evil by himself after picking up Frostmorne (a sword).

Guess we got caught in the debate about names, we're not really good at multi-tasking it seems.

About your first link, he does contradict himself. Although I think "Look at it this way. I push a lynch on you people start suspecting me [...]" could be interpreted as "Let's suppose I push a lynch on you..." meaning this whole sentence was just theory.

Well the townie wouldn't be told he's a sibling with a Mafia. The role PMs would look like that:

Player A : You're a Mafia Sibling, your brother is Player B. If he dies, you die.

Player B: You're a Sibling, your brother is Player A. If he dies, you die.

That was my point earlier but I checked the Mafia Wiki and it seems what I had in mind fits the Lovers variation better than Siblings.

I wouldn't rule out the possibility of siblings having the same conditions as Lovers since they are very similar roles.

I was trying to see Metal_Gear's motivation behind a quick vote. His behavior was scummy and questions needed to be asked about it. Also, from what I've observed in the last few games, scum loves to accuse each other of the first day so radish trying to insinuate that Metal_Gear was Mafia doesn't automatically make Metal_Gear town now that radish has showed up scum.

Which one are you?

Catching up with the thread here so I don't know if this was addressed already but the role you're looking for is Watcher and that's precisely what Final-Fan was. I can't imagine there being two watchers.

Okay let me get this straight... I'm going to assume everyone who revealed information is telling the truth for the time being to see if we can get a plausible scenario.

- hatmoza protects Final-Fan but he dies anyway.

- outlaw tracks hatmoza who said he went out but outlaw gets a "Stayed at home" result

This indeed points to a busser who switched hatmoza and Final-Fan last night.

Problem #1: Why switch two high profile players together? If the intention of the bus driver was to protect hatmoza why not switch him out with a lurker? (I wanna state that I really really don't want to consider the possibility of a Mafia Bus Driver since it was established this was a broken role)

Problem #2: outlaw received a "Stayed at home" result, if we assume the above switch, it would mean Final-Fan did not watch anyone last night which is highly unlikely.  I guess Final-Fan being role-blocked could possibly explain this since a blocked person would "stay home".

So all in all nothing is impossible and both hatmoza's and outlaw's version can be true at the same time but this also means we're dealing with lots of town power roles which in return means a strong Mafia.

This is distrubing, I agree with your conclusion that hatmoza could be scum covering all bases with his roleclaim (he does seem to be a very powerful version of a bodyguard). Frankly, I don't know what to do about it. Lynching him because of this possibility runs the risk of us loosing a great asset (both in the player and the role) but now that you've put it out there that he should be lynched at Lylo, a remaining scum could use him as a shield to secure a victory.

Unless the mod is unusually cruel, he will reveal all role info when someone dies.

He WAS certain of it BEFORE he realized he was blocked. He doesn't believe it anymore.

That was one big post. I'll comment on the stats and come back to the noted posts later as needed.

NotStan and Baal are new players, which kinda forgives the lower ratio of content in their posts (to a certain extent). NotStan didn't make much of an impression on me so he's neutral to me right now but Baal did strike me as the perfect case of the paranoid townie new player on Day One.

I'm surprised by the amount of NC posts by Metal_Gear, did you count his posts when he was questionned about his quick vote as non-content? Also surprised at MG being the one with the most posts, history would indicate he's not scum since he lurks a lot when scum but then again he could be scum that has learned from his mistake.

I know he is, which is why I'm so torn about him. As described by hatmoza, his role seems too powerful which leads me to believe it could be a fabrication but then again hatmoza could have embelished some parts of his powers to ward off scum.

Well that seals it for me.
Vote: darthdevidem01

My vote is mostly because of his lurker status but also because of how he roleclaimed out of the blue at the start of the day. If he's just a townie not participating, my vote will put some additional pressure on him to get on with the posting!

Guess I'll start by answering those questions.

1. I'm not against early roleclaims per say but you have to have a valid reason behind it. outlawauron had information about hatmoza (but I still question if that was enough to warrant the claim), darth had no reason whatsoever to roleclaim, hatmoza had to roleclaim because of the mess of suppositions we were heading into.

2. I guess something like 24-36h much less if they post in other threads like crazy.

3. I don't know what to make up of all this except that we shouldn't close our minds to any options unless they have been proven to be impossible.

4. When prof posted his potals, I was truely surprised that Metal_Gear was the top poster. That tells me that a lot of his posts didn't have an impact on me so yes there's a part of active lurking in MG's behavior. What troubles me the most though is that since comments have been made on the lack of content of his posts MG has gone into silent mode. I'm not prepared to vote for him based of that yet but my suspicion of him has risen a lot.

Interesting turn of events about NotStan here. As I said before, I was pretty neutral on him but he did seem to put out the "I'm a newb" card a bit much and now since people have started voting for him he pulled out every scum trick in the bag: No Lynch vote, revenge vote on hatmoza, refusal to roleclaim saying he's important.

Now, he's finally roleclaimed Roleblocker which is quite plausible with what we know as of now but it doesn't fit at all with his vote on hatmoza. I think NotStan was one of the few who got really riled up about hatmoza's "Thank God, I'm a townie" so him roleblocking hat is logical but with how Day Two played out if he's really the roleblocker he should be thinking "hatmoza is telling the truth".

Also, someone already corrected NotStan on the "invincibility" of the Elite Bodyguard but I'd like to add that if hatmoza does have this role, him roleclaiming was a really smart move because it scares scum shitless. From now on they'll be afraid to kill who they really want dead for fear of dying themselves.

I don't know why when I think Roleblocker, I always think town first although the role is much more appropriate for Mafia. As town, a Roleblocker is like a weak cop (block X if there's one less death X must be scum) but a blocker with bad aim can be pretty harmful to the town.

As you said, before we go ahead with voting/unvoting, I think we need to hear NotStan's clarifications.

The only reason I'd be willing to believe so many "protective" roles right now would be because we've got ourselves two killing factions. It is possible we don't have a doctor, there wasn't any in the game where Stefl was the half-cop (hatmoza's game if my memory's good). Luckily the fear of a doctor kept Stefl alive until very late.

Also, if everyone's telling the truth, we've got ourselves a very powerful town (tracker, watcher, body guard, roleblocker, possible doc and cop), this makes me dread what the Mafia (or Mafias) have to compensate for this.

Don't mess with prof's head!

Frankly, I wouldn't mind voting for Metal_Gear at this point too. We have his quick vote on ABC yesterday and his sudden disappearance once his posting has come under question. Although from the lurker angle, between MG and darth, MG is the one who's most likely to come back to us.

That's a very good point actually, Heph noted it here

Maybe MG analyzed only radish's death because he knew full well what had happened to Final-Fan and also, like Baal says, because he wanted to disassociate himself from radish.

@Heph: What was the something you talked about when you said  "and something else that i might use later" ?

I think his roleclaim is the only post for Day Two

Wouldn't he have mentionned in that one post that he was silenced or is it forbidden? One way or another I highly doubt that's what we have here.

With him not posting anywhere else on the site, I'd wager it's not the case but since right now Metal_Gear is just as suspicious as darth to me, I'd be willing give darth a chance and switch my vote to MG.

Getting this kind of call out is never pleasant. I remember dsister telling me I brought nothing new to the discussion and that I only mirrored Final-Fan's opinions during one game, I was pissed and understand why you would be put off too but disappearing for a couple of days isn't the best way to wash away those kind of accusations.

If you're really pro-town just keep on digging to find scum, point out things you think might be a tell, question people.

Speaking of questionning people, I have one for you... you came under fire for your quick ABC vote on Day One, what's your stance on him now?

I don't know what your long ass post contained but here's what I would want you to address:

With the notion that you knew you had blocked hatmoza, what was going through your head as hatmoza started making his claims about the presence of a bus driver and all the theories that followed? Why did you still vote for him when your block explains perfectly the chain of events of the day?

How exactly is claiming Elite Bodyguard scaring the townies? (I have my theory on that but I'll let you answer for yourself before I mention it.)

I wouldn't put all my hopes in the intervention of a cop since the combinaison of tracker and watcher could very well be in play to replace the cop.

Yes he could be lying his ass off but the beautiful thing here is that we can afford to wait it out a bit since he has some chances to prove himself (by defending someone successfully). So right now we have no reason to remove hatmoza from the equation because the benefits to the town outweigh the risks. As the game goes on, we'll re-evaluate the threath he poses.

I'd be ready to hammer... you guys think I should wait for Wonk?

Not fair! :P

Now we wait for Linkzmax and we'll know if we were right.

Nothing is ever that simple. Everyone will have to answer for their previous actions and right now you're looking more and more like you're setting up the next mislynch.

Well we can't all be radishhead, he really mastered the art of hammering!

The clue was animal painting, also I found this:

"The group were not willing to tolerate this behavior, so they moved closer until one of them shook the cosplayer. That's when his head rolled off his neck and landed on the ground with a muted thud."

RAdish's head was chopped off, and gniz wound up stabbed. I've looked up every character and so far only the sword is the only possible that can be mistaken for a "painted animal".

I dont see how this can be mistaken for painted

What about this weapon, almost the same thin,  why did you skip this one?

So hatmoza chose wisely as promised (or maybe it was random.org but I'll give hatmoza credit for this one until we know for sure).

dsister was Mafia this will provide some useful info once we dig through his posts (which I won't do right now but later).

If we go back to our scenarios from Day Two, we have many possible outcomes:

- Mafia A wiped out and a full Mafia B

- Mafia A at 1, Mafia B at 2

- Third party killer and a hurting Mafia (probably a 2 left)

Not familiar with WoW's story but why are the other 2 not likely to be in here?

Ooooookay... I'm gonna guess you followed hatmoza last night and saw who he protected. If that's the case I think you should disclose the information since it might give us some insight into the Mafia's mind.

So either the Mafia decided to kill Wonk or they didn't believe hatmoza and targetted him.

I wish I knew which one it is because if it's the second option it would make a bit less suspicious of A Bad Clown. Since he was already under heavy suspicion from the town, the Mafia would have most likely sent him to walk on the hatmoza mine.

My point was that if you're taking the gamble of calling hatmoza's bluff you send your most vulnerable member thinking if he does get killed at least your other members are better hidden in the crowd.

I've been racking my brain about the Gnizmo kill and I don't have much, other than:

- He was a pretty safe target for someone scared of hatmoza

- Him alluding to his role not being linked to his character could have misleaded scum to think he had a role and target him.

- random.org?

Yeah, he mentionned having a huge knowledge of WoW but to kill for this reason Gnizmo's alignment theory would have to be true and with darth being town and having a evil name (Kel'Thuzad) we know this to not be true.

I don't get how anyone can conclude one way or the other.

We know hatmoza protected Wonk so:

If dsister targetted Wonk, we get a dead dsister and a dead hatmoza

If dsister targetted hatmoza, we get a dead dsister, and dead hatmoza

Same result.

Also, Wonk being the "targetted one" is relevant in only one instance: if there's only one big Mafia team because being targetted by the Mafia then proves you yourself are not Mafia. In the case of two families being "the targetted" doesn't absolve you from anything since you could be in the other team.

A town Wonk can't know what setup we've got against us right now so him caring about being "the targetted" points to him being a member of a big Mafia team.

(I sure hope I was clear, it all makes sense in my head but I'm not sure it translates well once written)

How so? If we're dealing with a SK, the Mafia team will be in higher numbers than 3 right?

I may be critized for doing this but I'll use any info I can get.

Night 2 lasted from 03/22/11 17:37 EST to 03/24/11 13:36 EST

In that time span, outlawauron posted 3 times ( at 03/23/11 00:35 EST, 03/23/11 00:06 EST, 03/22/11 21:29 EST).

To be fair, all those posts are only hours after Night Two started so he could have thought, "I'll send my action later" but I find it rather strange that after a long absence that prevented him from sending his night action, he managed to get back to the thread in just under an hour after Day Three had started.

Am I getting too paranoid here? Or is Wonk's theory valid and outlawauron is using inside information to make himself look like a tracker?

^^ I thought putting me waaaay down like that was kinda weird! :P

I won't put in order but I've got a strong town vibe from: prof, Baalzamon, Vetteman

I had a strong town vibe from outlawauron but I'm considering Wonk's theory about him because it fits with his unwarranted roleclaim and the second tracking of hatmoza. So I'd put him neutral right now.

Wonk and Heph are pretty neutral leaning town.

ABC and MG are the ones I'd put under possible scum here.

For ABC, there's the orange joke from Day One. Although it seems silly, it's hard to ignore that two of the people joking around with this at the start of the game ended up being scum.

Also, yesterday it really seemed he was setting up hatmoza's lynch for today just before the NotStan reveal. This wouldn't make any sense in a one Mafia environment since he would have known NotStan would flip scum (them being on the same team) but if we consider the two teams alternative maybe he was banking on NotStan flipping town and preparing the terrain to get rid of a huge threat to his team.

For Metal_Gear, there's the quick vote on A Bad Clown on Day One. He went from posting a lot to being practically absent once he was criticized about content.

He also was singled out by NotStan before his lynch. This part could fall on both sides though since NotStan could have thought he was protecting him or painting a target of him depending on his reasoning at the moment (did he believe he could get off the hook with his answer or had he already accepted his fate?)

Hmmm you're right, guess he's scum whether there's one or two Mafia teams! :P

What points you to SK more than Mafia for MetalGear? Do you think he had reasons to want Gnizmo dead?

Are you saying your list goes outlaw is more suspicious than prof who is more suspicious than ABC... etc? Cause I read it the other way around i.e. "I trust outlaw more than prof who I trust more than ABC..."

Shouldn't you be worried about your placement in the list? :)

About the random.org, the only way I could see it being the Mafia is for a last member not sending his PM or two-three members arguing over who to kill and then leaving the argument open for too long. Both of these do seem unlikely.

I won't push my investigation by asking you to add me on Facebook so I can check, I'm not that obssessed.

I'm still concerned about your roleclaim and the timing of it. When you did it, hatmoza wasn't revealed as a bodyguard so you put yourself in danger and this for information that wasn't vital, why did you do it?

In that case, outlaw would have to be scum because a vigilante doesn't get ramdomized he just skips the night.

Not really, it's a would be a real (stupid) gamble for a serial killer to claim hatmoza stayed at home like that if you don't have inside info that guarantees you hatmoza didn't move that night.

hatmoza had already mentionned theories of a Bus Driver but it was before he started the very affirmative posts that eventually led to his roleclaim ( by that I mean the posts where he stated that Final-Fan HAD TO have been bussed).

I don't see how this is parenting, that's how I investigate, you could say I'm more of a "good cop" than a "bad cop" when it comes to asking questions to a suspect. Maybe I should be more aggresive but saying things like "I demand an answer" or "You should give us this information" just isn't me. You just have to look at the post I made for outlaw before the weekend, I said "I'd really like an answer to my question..." not "You better answer my question or else".

My post highlighted contradictions between the version NotStan presented to us and how the day played out, I wanted to know if he had something to say that would explain his behavior.

You jumping on a post where you would have said "should" instead of "would" to instantly make me scum in your eyes tells me a lot about your desperation right now. I'm not done reading the thread but I think you just edged out Metal_Gear in the suspicious department.

For the record, if I were scum, I would never ever try to scold a fellow Mafia member during the day, especially not one so deep in it like NotStan was at that point.

First post: Where in that post do I refute the existance of a roleblocker, I'm discussing the possibility a pro-town roleblocker vs a Mafia roleblocker. Don't try to make me say things I didn't just to serve your case.

Second post: Many players can attest to the fact the dsister has been voting for me at the start of games for a long while now.

Oh and another thing:

Vote: A Bad Clown

You grasping at anything to put me in a bad light has convinced me you're much scummier than Metal_Gear.

Is mine okay or do you want set positions?

You can call it a revenge vote if you want but I'm only voting for someone who distorts my posts to try and save himself from a lynch.

Please tell me what is interesting about the posts ABC mentionned? I've posted it below:

When have I refused to nameclaim? I'm Malfurion Stormrage. All you have to do is ask and I answer.

Unlike prof who failed to tell me what he found so interesting in ABC's outlined posts. Or completely ignored what I replied to his "parenting" suspicions. Suddenly that post hatmoza made about you at the end of Day Two seems to fit the bill completely:

Only one vote and I'm lynched!?!? Why don't you want to answer my questions instead of stalling and attacking me to divert attention?

After rereading some posts from Day One and Two, there's not much to get out of dsister's posts that could point to other scum. Most of his Day Two contribution is him arguing with Prof over his Heph vote from Day One.

The only thing I got out of this trip back in time is that although prof ignoring my questions and replies really rubs me the wrong way, his instance on bringing back dsister's contractions on Day Two while everybody ignored it (we were all focused on the nameclaims and roleclaims) has restored my faith in his towniness.

I'll repost my answer to prof's parenting claim maybe this time he'll reply to it:

Wow. Thanks prof for the sharing of all the investigative work. I also think it's important that you include just about everything rather than just things that support your point. It was a very interesting read. I still don't distrust truck, but he does seem to follow a bit of a formula to his posting (although, everyone does have their style, you're a very aggressive mafia player).

Something I found to be noteworthy is hat's suspicion list:

NotStan

Prof-for instituting the silencer idea about Darth

ABC-for paraphrasing and active lurking

Heph for being a "douche" and diverting NotStan Wagon

Thinks outlaw and trucks are town.

Here's my theory on that.

actually suspects notstan
suspecting me to try and push me towards voting his way (which is why he told you to stay out of it. He knows how to push my buttons)
Actually suspects ABC
Heph, I'm not sure about. I did agree that Heph was suspicious, but looking at the trucks posts, he attacks Heph quite a bit. And I believe trucks is scum
I believe he truly believed outlaw

However, with trucks, I think he was suspicious of him and was trying to buddy up with him to keep himself from being killed as giving off the impression that trucks might be able to influence him.

Just a theory though. However, there is really nothing that should've made him truly believe that trucks was town.