Yes because GT5 going into it's second holiday season will be bigger then GT4 going into it's first holiday season.. hmm....

4k1x3r said: ethomaz said: @4k1x3r The week 15 seems using the old data before adjustments... GT5 is tracking now 50k by week. Nope: 34 Gran Turismo 5 (PS3) Sony Computer Entertainment 15 37,402 6,013,203 That's why I say VGC messed up their calculations on GT5 sales, they forgot to change it for the weeks following their adjustment. Edit: Oh and don't worry, I too believe that the game is stabilizing at 40/50k per week, we'll see if we were right or wrong in few weeks (PD should update their website a month or so after Sony's financial report, or few days who knows)

Well a lot of time's after VGC make a large adjustment upward, they make another small one downward. We dunno where GT5 will stabilize, and it's improved from before the adjustment, but the attach rate between the two games has been droping since the holidays.

The facts are, the weekly sales ratio between GT5 and GT4 has been dropping since week 5. After the holidays (week 6) we can see a sharp drop in GT5 sales, and a gradual one as the game gets older, and the holidays get further past. So as console sales drop, GT5 sales drop too, and as we approach the slower summer months, GT5 sales ratio worldwide will likely be below 50% GT4's. This will likely rebound after the holidays, but overall, GT5 will sell less then GT4, by a considerable margin.

GT5 will never surpass GT4's sales, not without significant console bundling. For it to even sell 10 million copies, it has to hold a 67-79% sales attach ratio to GT4 (depends if you use current GT4 sales, or estimated lifetime sales).

I believe the WW attatch rate will fall to 60% or so, making my predicted sales of 9.4 million spot on. I've looked at figures, and analyzed trends, and have sufficient reason to believe my claims. The fact that your going on a fritze becasue 1 user disagrees with you, shows me that you lack confidence in your prediction.

So if you feel it will sell 10 million, or 11.2 million, or 15 million, go ahead. I'l always be there to say "trends say otherwise", but your opinion is your opinion. I won't comment if you make a gramatically correct sentance and say "I think it will sell __ million." I'm fine with people having their own opinions, I don't expect any of you GT5 fans to support me (ethomaz has GT5 as an avaratar icon, and in his sig, and all over his profile, he is a fan of the franchise). All I'm doing is presenting my opinion, and defending my claim to it, it's not the end of the world because someone disagrees with you, and is logical about it.

For all we know, maybe week 15 is the abnormality, thats why I said lets wiat for next weeks data.

GJ on the charts btw.

@Michael-5

Week 13 and 14 was Killzone 3 release with a lot of PS3 bundles sold... GT5 copies sold too... all games on PS3 had a increase that period.

Nothing strange.

You can say anything but nothing change the FACT "GT5 is selling better than GT4."

Um... GT5 is not selling better then GT4. Didn'y you look at the above graphs? It sold better in the holiday season, but as soonas then ended GT4 weekly sales were larger, and have consistanly stayed larger.

Also I thought GT5 sales boost for week 13 was due to KZ3, but it stayed high for a while. Either way, this way a temporary 2 week boost from the trend GT5 is setting.

You know, your actually agreeing with my trends commentation. By saying GT5 sales were inflated due to KZ3's release, you acknowledge that GT5 sales should be lower then they were week 13 and 14. This would corelate with the trend GT5 is setting. Therefor, indirectly, you acknowledge a sub 70% attach rate is a typical stabilization level for GT5 compared to GT4.

So why are you still debating with me if you see the logic of my point? With a sub 70% attach rate GT5 lifetime sales are likely to end up between 9-10 million. Still good, and typical for a GT game.

MW2 for PS3 is likely 1 game.

Also Halo 3 ODST only sold 4 million in 15 weeks, and never crossed 6 million lifetime. Multiply those values by 1.5, and you see how GT5 selling 6 million in 15 weeks may still not break 9 million lifetime.

Gears of War 2 sold 4.44 million units in 10 weeks, which isn't that much less then GT5, and it's only at 6.17 now, likely 6.5 million lifetime. Scale this up with GT5's 5.7 million in 10 weeks, and it would have sold around 8 million instead.

MGS4 sold 3.2 million in 10 weeks, and is probably going to settle below 5.5 million lifetime. Scale that with GT5's 5.7 - 10 week figures, and GT5 would stop at 9.8 million. Thats ignoring the fact that MGS had a June release, so it's sales are much less frontloaded then GT5's.

So many games could be used to prove that getting 75% more sales after 10 weeks (what GT5 needs to cross 10 million lifetime), is by no means a garentee, and actually pretty hard. I mean how many non Wii titles sold over 75% of their 10 weeks sales after 10 weeks? Not many, and generally the ones that did do this had slow initial sales.

Your right, not game this gen has sold 6 million units in 15 weeks and not crossed 10 million lifetime, but thats a very small window. How many games are there to compare with which sold so much in 15 weeks?

The fact is, GT5 is not selling in the typical GT profile. Sales are dropping faster then GT4 sales. Although it's profile isn't quite the same as Gears, Halo, or MGS, it's also not quite GT4's. There is no garentee that GT5 will cross 10 million sales, stop trying to act as if you magically know this, despite the trend GT5 is setting.

Let the figures speak for themselves, don't try to force your own opinion onto me. I already told you, I'm not trying to change your opinion, but you seem adiment to prove me wrong. What is with you, why can't you accept that other people have different opinions? Does it bug you that much that your prediction may be wrong? You've attacked me on threads unrelated to this topic before. Before this game came out, people thought GT5 would make PS3 weekly sales soar past 360's, that never happened. Now people like you are so focused on this game making 10 million. what if that doesn't happen? Is the world over? No

I don't mean to be insulting, but grow up, stop trying to demean me by talking to other people and talking down to me. Telling people "Not to bother with this guy" is rude, and insulting, and I don't know how you don't see that.

I'm just going to stop talking to you. There is no getting through to you. You can continue to ingore other peoples opinions, just please stop pressing your opinion as correct, and mine as false. It's really annoying.

I was being sarcastic. GT4 has yet to go through a holiday season. GT5 will be going through it's second. There will be a noticable difference in sales, even if you overlapped corresponding weeks of the year (instead of weekly sales from launch).

I understand after GT4 goes through it's holiday season, GT5 will begin it's holiday season, and for those two months or so, weekly sales may even be in GT5's favor. But I'm betting you, when GT4 is seeing November sales, and GT5 is seeing August/September sales, the sales ratio will be over 2:1 in favor of GT4. Overall GT4 will gain more ground then GT5.

I mean right now were comparing GT5 March sales to GT4 May sales, and GT4 is still outselling GT5 3:2. Thats insane when you realize May sales are generally much lower then March's. Sales won't drop too much May - August, but March - May they will for GT5.

Also GT4 was still best selling weekly game after 15 weeks. Isn't GT5 like 15th?

GT4 was a lot more popular, then GT5 is now. It has no rivals, it was on the most successful console, and it was THE racing simulator. The same can't be said for GT5, and hype is noticably smaller.

Look if GT5 sells under 40k WW next week, I've proven my point. I'm not going to bother arguing with you guys anymore. You can fit my prediction onto an excel trend line, and I have sufficient reasoning to beleive 9.4 million sales lifetime is accurate.

You guys are entitled to your own opinion, but I'm tired of being harassed on mine.

I've made an ample case for my belief, and if you can't accept my opinion on equal grounds as your own, it's because you're not confident with your own prediction, and feel you need to lash out onto others to prove your point.

Let the figures speak for themselves..

Quote me on this, cause I'm tired of this moronic debate.

EDIT: I meant 40k, was looking at EMEAA chart

any news on the australia charts?

Oh my sig, k I'll do that now.

Also, your right, a few weeks is not long enough to predict a trend, but it's still a better idea to make predictions on an emerging pattern, instead of just optimistic beliefs.

EDIT: Wait, sorry, can I cange that 30k WW figure above to 40k WW? I was looking at the EMEAA table when I said 30k WW, and I was tired. Last week the game sold 37k, I don't think it's going to drop 7k, but I think it will sell about the same this week as it did last. That was the intention of my post, that way the attach rate between GT5 and GT4 will still be sub 80%. I think GT5 will sell around the 35k range (which would be a 70% attach rate), but if it's 2-3k over I don't want people freaking out on me.

So Under 40k, then leave me alone. I will have made my point.