| 4k1x3r said: Michael Michael Michael... just for you:
See this? Strange drop from week 14 to 15 right? What about the strange bump for weeks 13 and 14? The difference between GT5 and GT4 sales make sence week 15, as it does follow the trend from week 12 and prior. There are different ways to view the same data, should open your eyes. Eventhough VGC updated their numbers, this table shows some strange variations in GT5's sales tracking after the tenth week. Dropping from 55k to 37k sounds too weird to be trustable compared to other weeks, Week 9-12, GT5 sales dropped 10k a week weekly, then they went up? Your pointing out week 15 as the unusual depression and comparing it to the only two weeks sales have been up compared to the prior week since the holiday window. Please man, take another look at the data. just saying, expect another adjustment next time that PD updates their website, and we'll be here again to see how funnily you're gonna explain how it doesn't change your prediction. Probably going to be a minor adjustment next week. Usually after big adjustments on VGC, they readjust within the next 3 weeks, and the profile makes a lot more sence then, :) Because if we look closer to the EMEAA table alone:
Then sorry but no one will make me believe that it dropped from 36k to 21k (more than 40% drop on week 15...) eventhough it was still there in most of the charts through Europe with no significant drop. Why did you cut out, week 9-13? You can't comment on trends, but ignore them out of your tables. Look, your looking at the data in a very biased way. Your putting an emphasis on the last week of sales, but your comparing week 15 sales to week 14 sales. Week 13 and 14 sales, are inflated for whatever reason, even compared to the 4 weeks prior. To make an accurate comparision of Week 15 data, you should compare it to the general trend being made. Week 12 GT5 sold 31k, week 9 it sold 62k. The fact that GT5 only dropped 30% of sales compared to 50% before shows it's following a typical parabolic profile. It's stabilizing, but not at 40-50k worldwide. Lets see next weeks data, to see if it continues to follow this trend, which the game has been, except the 2 weeks prior. If it follows this trend, expect sales to be 15-25k in EMEAA. BTW - Notice the attach ratio between GT5 and GT4 drop weeks 9 - 12? It resumes after the boost in sales for week 13 and 14. It's likely that week 13 and 14 sales were boosted, likely in relation to the increased hardware sales. Please go on excel and plot this. Plot the difference in sales and total sales on a weekly basis. I'm too lazy, and I don't want to use photobucket now. You will see that if you ignore week 13 and 14, and fit a parabolic trendline, the data point for week 15 matches the trend set out by prior data points. Do it, then come back and tell me I'm wrong, tell me excel and lines of best fits are also wrong. Week 15 sales may be low, but not as low as you paint them out to be. Oh and in Americas:
Interesting GT5 15W total and GT4 23W total are almost the same, for those saying GT5 was gonna flop real hard in Americas, and sink real fast. It's tracking really good, and will for sure outsell GT4 in the long run, GT5 will for sure outsell GT4 in EMEAA too (no way it's not gonna do it), only Japan will remain superior for GT4, good luck with your 9.4m prediction happening. For sure? it's only been 15 weeks, it's far too early to be definitive of anything. You should really come back and analyze this data again. On a weekly basis, in all EMEAA and Japan GT5 is selling more poorly then GT4, and your garenteeing that in Americas and EMEAA GT5 will outsell GT4? There are so many different factors in play, too many to make definitive statements, especially when you don't look at trends. |
The facts are, the weekly sales ratio between GT5 and GT4 has been dropping since week 5. After the holidays (week 6) we can see a sharp drop in GT5 sales, and a gradual one as the game gets older, and the holidays get further past. So as console sales drop, GT5 sales drop too, and as we approach the slower summer months, GT5 sales ratio worldwide will likely be below 50% GT4's. This will likely rebound after the holidays, but overall, GT5 will sell less then GT4, by a considerable margin.
GT5 will never surpass GT4's sales, not without significant console bundling. For it to even sell 10 million copies, it has to hold a 67-79% sales attach ratio to GT4 (depends if you use current GT4 sales, or estimated lifetime sales).
I believe the WW attatch rate will fall to 60% or so, making my predicted sales of 9.4 million spot on. I've looked at figures, and analyzed trends, and have sufficient reason to believe my claims. The fact that your going on a fritze becasue 1 user disagrees with you, shows me that you lack confidence in your prediction.
So if you feel it will sell 10 million, or 11.2 million, or 15 million, go ahead. I'l always be there to say "trends say otherwise", but your opinion is your opinion. I won't comment if you make a gramatically correct sentance and say "I think it will sell __ million." I'm fine with people having their own opinions, I don't expect any of you GT5 fans to support me (ethomaz has GT5 as an avaratar icon, and in his sig, and all over his profile, he is a fan of the franchise). All I'm doing is presenting my opinion, and defending my claim to it, it's not the end of the world because someone disagrees with you, and is logical about it.
For all we know, maybe week 15 is the abnormality, thats why I said lets wiat for next weeks data.
GJ on the charts btw.
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