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Forums - Sales Discussion - predictions for 2008

Avinash_Tyagi said:
Bladeneo said:
Astrodust said:

My Predictions for 2008:

Total end of year sales Wii 53 million, PS3 19 million, 360 26 million
Wii fit will essenstially be sold out all year in NA.
The Wii Will not see a price drop.
The Wii will pass NA sales of the 360 by the end of May.
The Wii achieves 50% market share by the end of July.
Nintendo will not reduce production of the Wii.
Nintendo will increase the production of the Wii 2 more times. Around 2.4 and 2.8 million respectively.
The Wii will be sold out Christmas 2008 and the holdays will belong to Nintendo.Japan will see new Wii colors next Christmas.
The PS3 will receive 3 more price cuts and at least 2 more SKUs.
The 360 will see an HD-DVD drive built in. MGS4 will go multplatform.


The PS3 will recieve THREE price cuts? You dont know how things work do you?


It recieved a few this year, who knows whether the same might happen next year


 And we all know how much it hurt Sony to do that; theres NO way they can finance 3 more price drops. Id say one would be a stretch.



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my predictions.

by end of 2008: ps3-17M 360-24M Wii-50M DS-95M PSP-40M

No More heros - 500k
SSBB - 10+ M
Mario Kart - 10+M
wii fit - 10+ M
GTA - 7-8M across both platforms (ratio will favor the 360 by 10% better than hardware ratio at release)
MGS4 - 1-2M assuming is stays a ps3 exclusive
Killzone2 - just barely 1M
Halo wars - ~1/2 that of halo3 so like 2.5M

eh, that's all that comes to mind right now. oh, and software numbers are LTD numbers.



kitler53 said:
my predictions.

by end of 2008: ps3-17M 360-24M Wii-50M DS-95M PSP-40M

No More heros - 500k
SSBB - 10+ M
Mario Kart - 10+M
wii fit - 10+ M
GTA - 7-8M across both platforms (ratio will favor the 360 by 10% better than hardware ratio at release)
MGS4 - 1-2M assuming is stays a ps3 exclusive
Killzone2 - just barely 1M
Halo wars - ~1/2 that of halo3 so like 2.5M

eh, that's all that comes to mind right now. oh, and software numbers are LTD numbers.

That depends on the quality of the finished product and how well reviewers will welcome it.

Admitedly it looks extremely good, but everyone is staying cautiously optimistic since the last chapter was a mess.

But if Guerrilla actually does succeed, it might become established as one of the biggest franchises of newer times.

Thats of course, IF it happens, Im not counting on any positive reception from 1up's chief editor though lol.

I think Killzone 2 average may end up on a scale from 8,8~9,6(-,7). I hope that they have really learned their lesson, and gotten more experience to make this an outstanding shooter.



Nintendo & Sony supporter:

 Consoles: Wii & PS3.

Wii: 32-37,5M
PS3: 24M
360: 23,5M

1) PS3 will outsell x360 in EU, if GT5 come this year.
2) FFXIII will get simultaneous releases in Japan and USA.
3) MGS3 will sell 3-4 mln. by the end of year.
4) KZ2 will sell 3-4 mln. by the end of year.
5) GT5 will sell 2-3 mln. in first month.
6) GTA4 2 mln. x360 and 1,5 mln. ps3 first week.
7) GTA4 ps3 version will outsell x360.
8) IF FFXIII really will be realesed simultaneous in USA and Japan, like another Square game -> Last Remnant, it will sell 5-6 mln. First week.
9) DMC4 ps3 ver. will outsell x360 ver. WW in First month.
10) There will be no annouces that MGS4:Substance coming to x360 till november(or won`t be at all).
11) NG2 will sell worse then DMC4 x360 ver.
12) Bioshock will be released on ps3.
13) KH3 will be shown on PS3 as a gameplay trailer, after Square will show NEW Gameplay trailer of FF13.
14) LBP will do only 500k in first week, but will sell over 4 mln. by the end of year.
15) There will be shown new GREAT PS3 exclusives, which will OWN everything.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

Hrmmm everyone else seems to be having alot of fun making crazy ass predictions so I'll make a few.

From Jan-Dec sales totaled, PS3 will have outsold the 360 3-1

Wii-Fit it going to be a massive flop in America, (kids and American's don't want excercise ;) give em guns! )

SSBB Will sell to everyone who already owns a copy of Melee, and 1 other person. So whatever melee's totals were + 1 >_>

Killzone 2 is going to be the greatest thing since sliced bread and will get a world wide holiday named after it, as well as it's own country, it will be a sectioned off area of the Sahara named Helgan. 

Metal Gear Solid 4 will Sell a million copies day 1 and sell 333,333 PS3's.

Sony will find another way to downsize the cost of the PS3 so when MS pushes for an actual price cut around the time GTA4 is due Sony will laugh and cut it down a significant ammount as well.

This is fun :D 



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CrazzyMan said:
Wii: 32-37,5M
PS3: 24M
360: 23,5M

1) PS3 will outsell x360 in EU, if GT5 come this year.
2) FFXIII will get simultaneous releases in Japan and USA.
3) MGS3 will sell 3-4 mln. by the end of year.
4) KZ2 will sell 3-4 mln. by the end of year.
5) GT5 will sell 2-3 mln. in first month.
6) GTA4 2 mln. x360 and 1,5 mln. ps3 first week.
7) GTA4 ps3 version will outsell x360.
8) IF FFXIII really will be realesed simultaneous in USA and Japan, like another Square game -> Last Remnant, it will sell 5-6 mln. First week.
9) DMC4 ps3 ver. will outsell x360 ver. WW in First month.
10) There will be no annouces that MGS4:Substance coming to x360 till november(or won`t be at all).
11) NG2 will sell worse then DMC4 x360 ver.
12) Bioshock will be released on ps3.
13) KH3 will be shown on PS3 as a gameplay trailer, after Square will show NEW Gameplay trailer of FF13.
14) LBP will do only 500k in first week, but will sell over 4 mln. by the end of year.
15) There will be shown new GREAT PS3 exclusives, which will OWN everything.

 I have to say that you made me laugh, lol 

 



carlos710 - Capitán Primero: Nintendo Defense Force

"Wii are legion, for Wii are many"

@Mnementh:

By the way, do you realize, that for Wii to reach 50% market-share in 2008 it will have to:
1) sell aditional 6 mln. Wii.
2) sell same as ps3+x360 WW sales every week.
3) there is no way for wii to reach 45-50 mln. in 2008. It`s impossible because of shortages or just little demand.

@carlos710:
i have to say, that i will be one, who will laugh last. =))

To other people,
Uncharted already sold over 400k, and that game is not even selling 1 month WW. Uncharted alone will reach 2 mln. by the end of 2008.
MGS4 is MORE hyped game, will sell EASY over 2 mln.

Those who think, that PS3 will sell LESS(17 mln. total or just 8 mln.) then in 1st year(around 9 mln.) WITH LBP, KZ2, MGS4, GTA4, GT5, FFXIII and other GREAT games are just IDIOTS.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

Here are my predictions:

Wii= 20 million (No Zelda, No SM, No Metroid) SS:BB and Mario Kart will make up for these sales, that's why it will be the same. Wii fit won't sell as much hardware as some people expect, but it will sell units.

The Wii won't get as much hype in the media as it did throughout this year.

PS3= 12 million (MGS4, WKS, DMC, Gran Turismo and maybe Killzone 2) Finally we will see sequels to high selling franchises and some RPG's to boost Japanese sales. Europe will eat up MGS4 and Killzone 2 (if it comes in 08). Expect a strong year for Sony.

360= 10 million (No Halo, No Forza , No PGR) GTA 4 will move more hardware on the 360, and Gears may have a strong impact if it can make it to 08. Lost Oddessy and Fable 2 will have a small impact in terms of hardware sold.

As for the games

Wii
SS:BB= 4 million in 08
Mario Kart=5 million in 08

Wii Fit (Need Help with this one)

PS3
MGS4= 2-4 million (Last of the franchise, will move hardware)
LittleBigPlanet= 600k Lifetime 500k in 08

Killzone 2= one million plus (If it hits in 08) Hype alone will sell that much (just like Red Steel)

360
Fable 2= 1-1.5 million
Gears of War 2= million easy, even if it hits the holidays.

Multi-platform
DMC 4= 1.2 million PS3: 1.8 million 360
GTA IV= 4-4.5 PS3: 7-8.5 million 360



Didja get that thing I sentcha?

CrazzyMan said:
To other people,
Uncharted already sold over 400k, and that game is not even selling 1 month WW. Uncharted alone will reach 2 mln. by the end of 2008.
MGS4 is MORE hyped game, will sell EASY over 2 mln.

Those who think, that PS3 will sell LESS(17 mln. total or just 8 mln.) then in 1st year(around 9 mln.), WITH LBP, KZ2, MGS4, GTA4, GT5, FFXIII and other GREAT games, are just IDIOTS.

Uncharted won't hit 2m. It should do well but I don't see how it will top 1.2m or so even if it has outstanding legs. I think Mass Effect will struggle to hit 2m and it's already sold 1m copies. It also released same-day as Uncharted. I also doubt most of the world will see FFXIII or GT5 in 2008.

BTW, stop calling everyone idiots and slamming every other console. The last three posts I've seen from you are completely inflammatory and unnecessary.




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CrazzyMan said:

3) there is no way for wii to reach 45-50 mln. in 2008. It`s impossible because of shortages or just little demand.


One would think that after seeing how things happened in 2007, people would refrain from posting this kind of stuff. It's fine if you think the Wii won't reach that level, but saying that there's no way it will happen is just dumb.

Let's say the Wii ends this year at 18 million (a conservative estimate at this point). In order to end up at 45 million, it would have to sell 2.25 million a month in average. That's a mere 25% increase in production from current levels. Now, I know that the later they increase production, the harder it is to attain that level, but you should also consider that during this year alone, Nintendo increased production by 80%. 25% in average is perfectly attainable.

2008 will probably see the Wii getting launched in China and Korea. If those launches go well, 45 million should be extremely easy to hit.

 



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