You mean gamestops.

 Time to ship: 20 days. Time to Fly: 5 days. Go figure :o)

@tokill,

How do you figure that you were correct?

As you will see above, I agreed they were pushing units forward for X-mas. What I disagreed on was when you said "ALL" units being produced in Nov were being shipped to the US. I explained my reasons above so I won't go into it.

The second part of the conversation was the post holiday sales numbers which you were expecting at 120k.....then you later revised down to 100k.

My original and unchanged prediction was that I would normally expect 80-90k.

This weeks US sales 65k, and I think we both agree that last week was still slightly inflated due to holiday shipments.

My who point was that there would be a drought. I was completely guessing about the exact number. I however, was not guessing about the supply chain manuevers they pulled. I was proven right. The scarcity hit should be 1-2 weeks longer. The rainchecks will make the next few weeks better than this week.

Just admit it... you were wrong no biggie.. no ban bet... If the sales would have not fallen so harsh I would have conceded(if you brought it up ; p)

If I was actually proven wrong about something I would have no issue admitting it.

What we have here is a situation where two scenarios predicted a lull in supply and two predictions of what that lull would be.  Your prediction was further off.  Those are the facts.

What we can conclude from those facts is only that my prediction was in fact closer.  We cannot conclude that my scenario was correct because it is possible that your scenario was correct but that you underestimated its effect and predicted too high.  

I seriously have a hard time seeing how you in any way can draw the conclusion that a lull after the holidays proves your prediction when the standard model for all consoles...supply constrained or not produces the same effect.   

It would be like me checking the paper to see what time the sun comes up and getting up early and telling my neighbors that by dancing in my yard I can make the sunrise...and as I dance the sun rises in the sky...proof that my dance works or proof that the past sunrises can be used to predict future sunrises?

 Actually, your point was more than a Wii drought in America as if it was your only point you would not have disagreed with sqrl, and you were wrong about the supply chain maneuvers they pulled.

Your theory was that Nintendo shipped all of November's production to America/Others and next to nothing to Japan, hence the lower numbers in Japan (you did not believe it was due to low demand):

And that come January, when the Japanese holiday and WiiFit ask for bigger numbers, Nintendo would do the opposite and ship  more to Japan and less to NA.

You also said:  

Which means that you do not believe that they air shipped Wiis to America but only changed the Japan/US/Others shipment ratio for the last quarter. 

For your theory to be true you would need to have worldwide weekly numbers be similar but the ratio between Japan/US/Others to be different but this is not what happened as worldwide numbers were much higher in december and
 are this week much lower than the weekly production of 410k.

If Japan numbers were around 250k again this week it might have some merit but as it is nintendo definitely had to use air freight to pull some of January's numbers in December so while your conclusion about a January drought in america was correct your reasoning as to why was not as there is also a drought in Japan.