Mummelmann said:
Michael-5 said:
Price will help boost all console sales, but in different ways and it won't alter how they will sell with respect to one another. If Wii holds 18 million sales due to a price drop (as the trend it's setting this year is downward from 2010), it will sell more then the PS3 and 360. A PS3 and 360 price cut is less likely, but if it does happen it won't boost sales to above 2010 levels. However I have been wrong before, so in the case that it does boost sales above 14-15 million, I still think the Wii will inch past. I think worst case, a price cut in 2011 will make 2011 numbers a repeat of 2010, with 360 and PS3 swiched.
Also I don't get your point, I put Wii above PS3 and 360. If you aknowledge that price doesn't matter, why question me? It's hard to read sarcasm in text. I don't mean to whine about it, but I guess people who use one arguement in two contradicting ways annoys you. I'm not like that.
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I'm simply playing on the age old sentiment from the Wii fanbase that price doesn't matter. And then they come along with charts showing the Wii tracking above the PS2 and how the PS2 got the majority of sales at a very low price (allthough this doesn't happen very often any more, its almost as if people have stopped assuming that the Wii will outsell the PS2). Contradictions is what I'm getting at.
I know perfectly well that price matters, if the PS3 and 360 remains significantly above the Wii before anyone cuts the price, who can say that a PS3/360 price drop won't have enough effect to keep things the same way even if the Wii cuts the price as well? A 250$ PS3 and 150$ Arcade 360 should easily nullify any advantage gained by a 50$ Wii price cut, especially since they're both significantly above in weekly sales as is. This may not remain the same throughout the year but we saw the HD consoles outselling the Wii handily last fall, all the way till the holidays kicked in for real. If the Wii starts off slow and gets outsold all the way till fall this year and then continues to get outsold up until the holidays, it will be a whole lot of ground to cover up, especially since the HD consoles' yoy drops will probably be smaller also during the holidays. And who knows what will happen if the HD consoles drop their price even more than 50$? A 199$ PS3 could do extremely well seeing how well its doing as the highest pricepoint of all three right now. The Wii might also drop more than 50$ but a 99$ console is really the sign of someone headed into the next generation in a hurry imo. A scenario where only Nintendo drop the price is unthinkable to me, the others just won't let it steal all those sales, if anything, Nintendo have proven to be most stubborn about price cuts and may even attempt to get by on the same pricepoint for the remainder of the year. They sure as hell don't seem to be doing much to help the situation right now.
A three way price cut will benefit the HD consoles just as much as the Wii and things will remain pretty much what they are now (the Wii won't have any retail advantage against a 150$ base model 360 and it seems unable to outsell the PS3 which is 100$ more costly as is, if the difference remains 100$ there won't be massive changes in weekly numbers imo). Software might help boost the Wii somewhat but the same goes for the HD consoles and there are no huge peripherals on the horizon to favour anyone either (unless Vitality Sensor gets released right before christmas). Also, software has less and less impact on hardware sales the farther into the console lifecycle you go so we won't see anything like the NSMBWii boost ever again this generation.
As it stands now and for the foreseeable future, the Wii is not in a better position than the HD consoles to sell the most units this year, the fact that it has outsold them before has no bearing on the current situation and should only add to the notion that it isn't doing as hot as it could. And, before someone mentions it, this is not one week of lower sales we're talking about, this is the fourth or fifth week of the Wii being below the HD consoles and the gap has grown every one of those week and there is no reason to believe that it (the Wii) will get back on top any time soon all of the sudden. 45% yoy weekly drops are unprecedented, especially in a market leader.
I remember right before the holidays, some people were chanting; "The Wii will not win this holiday season, it needs a price cut to do that!" The other side responded when the holidays arrived and the Wii won; "Lol, see what happens? It doesn't need a price cut!" There were others still, me being among them, who claimed that the Wii would indeed win the holidays but could find itself in a world of trouble when the holidays were past and that this would be significant (of course) for it's overall performance.
I guess time has shown that the first group made asses of themselves (expectedly), the second one were simply stating the obvious for the time (holidays) and the third has yet to be proven wrong or right. 2011 will be the telltale year and will ultimately decide for sure exactly when the next generation starts (and I say it starts in late 2012).
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I dunno if Wii will outsell PS2. People say that Wii lacks the software to compete with PS2, and the HD consoles are increasing in market share. PS2 was never forced to upgrade, or replace itself because of a dimishing market share, but Wii is getting to a position where it might. Right now Wii is tracking above PS2 by a noticable margin, and if you allign launches, 2005 was the last year of strong PS2 sales. They dropped to 13/14 million in 2006 and slowly have been going down since. If Wii could manage 18-20 million sales this year, and still track above PS2 on an annual basis, it has a decent chance of becoming the best selling home console to date.
Still you make a good point referencing the gap in weekly sales, and the 40% (not quite 45% like you stated) YoY drop in weekly sales.
However who is garenteeing a PS3/360 price drop this fall? Sony is only making a few dollars on each console, and have publicly stated that it's more important to remain profitable then to surpass the 360 in total sales. Both MS and Sony have also just recently had peak years in sales, and the 360 is tracking above last years sales by 10-15% weekly. MS also just recently went through 360 shortages, it seems they are having enough trouble just maintaining shipments, they don't need a price drop to continue selling strongly.
I think it's possible that Nintendo drops the price of the Wii, and that MS/Sony update their respective HD consoles. Larger hard-drives, maybe a price cut on Move/Kinect, or just lots of software.
Nintendo didn't make a price cut last year, they are being strict with the Wii's price, but they have also prolonged a high price point for the longest time. Since it's release in 2006, the Wii has only dropped in price $70 (I live in Canada, Wii is $210 here, at launch cost $280). Nintendo has lasted this long by simply adding colored Wii's, and bundling software, it's more overdue for a price cut then the PS3 and 360.
PS3 20GB was $600 at launch, and I believe the Pro 360 was $500 at launch in 2005. The PS3 has come down in price 50%, the 360 has dropped down 40%, but the Wii has only gone down 25% in price. I just think a price cut on the Wii is the most overdue, and Nintendo is running out of options with colors and bundles.
I could still be wrong, I though 2009 was PS3's peak year, but 2010 it sold better, and so far 2011 is looking to be 360's peak year, which is crazy. Before this generation every console peaked in 2-3 years, the 360 peaked in 5, and PS3 in 4 (assuming last year was their peak). The market is just a bit too unpredicatble.
Still, that's just an alternate scenario, I'm tip-toeing around our discussion. By the time a 3 way price cut were to be in affect, Yearly 360/PS3 sales should be around 6.5 million (end of August figures for 2010 adjusted to current weekly tracking rate), and Wii sales should be around 8.1 million - 40%, so about 4.9 million. Wii could regain the 1.6 million gap fairly easily, even if the HD consoles had a consecutive price cut. After all about two thirds of it's annual sales take place in the last 4 months of the year.
The more I analyze this, the more I feel a Wii price cut could benefit the Wii more then the HD consoles. It's dropped in price least since launch, it's YoY sales are the lowest its been since 2007, most of it's annual sales would take place after a suposed price cut, and unlike Sony and MS, they have more thoroughly exhausted its bundling options. A $250 dollar PS3 would boost PS3 sales significantly, and the same goes for a $250 360, and a $150-$170 Arcade 360 (which doesn't account for a substantial volume of 360 sales), but then again, a $150-$170 Wii would be big too, especially if they did something gimicky like make multiple colours for the console like they did with the N64.
So anything could happen. A 3-way price cut might not restore Wii's selling potential, but I feel it will. That is why I voted in such a way.
However, a price cut this fall would only save Wii's sales for this year, next year I'd expect sales to drop, and since thats exactly what PS2 did in 2006, I think this a very possible scenario.
Sorry if this is long and pointless, I have a test today and I pulled an all nighter doing nothing. So I'm tired.
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