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Forums - Sales - Who will be on top JAPAN LTD: PS3 or Wii?

 

Who will be on top JAPAN LTD: PS3 or Wii?

easily beat it and open up a gap at top 35 21.08%
 
will reach it but won't get much ahead 27 16.27%
 
will equal it 13 7.83%
 
neverrrrrrrrrrrrr 90 54.22%
 
Total:165
Wagram on 28 February 2011

LTD? Wii probably

2011? PS3



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kitler53 on 28 February 2011
Soriku said:
postofficebuddy said:
Soriku said:
AnveL said:

PS3 still have at least 6 years of life but i don't think Wii gonna last another 3 years, it will die right away when new Wii launch and by that time PS3 will be selling much cheaper, thats why i think PS3 still stand a chance beating Wii total sells in japan...


No the PS3 isn't going to last another 6 years (at least as a decent enough force). And no the Wii isn't going to suddenly drop like a rock, like the PS1 didn't drop like a rock, or the PS2, or the GBA, and now not the DS either.


Actually GBA pretty much did drop like a rock once DS came out, at least in Japan. For all intents and purposes the system was basically dead a bit more than a year later. DS looks to be following a slightly steeper trend then GBA actually.


Eh, I was talking more WW since there's no way to think the PS3 will last another 6 years with the sales it's getting now (20k now...but 6 years from now? Yeah...). I remember GBA vs. PS3 comparisons. The Wii is like 10kish now so no I don't think it's going to last many years from now, although it still does well during holidays. But WW is a different story, the Wii won't suddenly drop and on the other hand, the PS3 will keep thriving for years to come...

to the top part -- of course it's not going to because it already has.

to the bottom part -- this is obviously a thread focused on japan.



jarrod on 01 March 2011
Carl2291 said:
jarrod said:

The way things are going, I think we'll see PS3 finish around 9m, Wii around 13m.  Japan just doesn't want home consoles anymore.

Only another 1.5 Million for the Wii?

Compared to 2.5 for the PS3?

You m ust expect the next Ninty console pretty soon

2012.  



postofficebuddy on 01 March 2011
jarrod said:
postofficebuddy said:
jarrod said:

The way things are going, I think we'll see PS3 finish around 9m, Wii around 13m.  Japan just doesn't want home consoles anymore.


That seems extremely pessimistic for both consoles. Like I mentioned above 13 million is the rock-bottom minimum I can see for the Wii. That basically assumes sales drop off a cliff this year and DQX doesn't see a 2011 release and it sells sub-1 million this year. Than assuming DQX is a 2012 release it has minimal impact on HW and the Wii falls off predictably. And even under that scenario it could still crawl to 13.5-14 million if Nintendo keep it around long enough. And in regards to PS3, looking at the current YOY trends it will probably end the year around 8 million. You think it will only do another million lifetime after that? 10 million pretty much looks like a mathematical certainty at this point, with 11-12 being the most likely outcome.

I see my figures as more realistic.  Wii and PS3 both sold around 1.5 million in 2010 in Japan, both are going to sell less this year, and it's probably just a few years until both are done putting in significant years of sales at all (Wii especially, it likely has 2 years max).  Japan's also moved on from home consoles for the most part, and having 3DS and NGP on the market this year is just going to further cannibalize what's left.  I see this as especially dangerous for PS3, NGP really makes it an entirely unnecessary platform from a Japanese perspective.

On the other hand saying something like 12m PS3s sold lifetime is likely, essentially doubling it's current userbase... well, that's pretty optimistic to say the least.  In fact, I'd say it's fantasy.


Doubling its current userbase would be 13 million. And I didn't say 12 million, I gave a range of 11-12. And if NGP is going to cut into PS3 sales so heavily then why aren't we already seeing the signs of it? Last year DS sales declined sharply almost immediately after the 3DS was announced and even a price cut didn't remedy the situation. PS3, and particularly PSP, aren't showing any signs of slowdown. Last year PS3 sold 1550k. That was simply by maintaining a decent baseline of sales around 20k-25k with handful of semi-spikes on the Torne, Hokuto Musuo, and white model launches. It's already maintaining that baseline and it just got a price cut. Not to mention the fact that PS3's performance last December was as piss-poor as it could have gotten. There's no way it's going to do that poorly this December with FFXIII-2 coming out. And if you think sequels don't push hardware look at MH3P. Next year VsXIII will keep PS3 at least relevant enough to do another million, especially if we see another price cut in 2012 as well.



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Immortal on 01 March 2011

Why the hell is this thread still alive?

I'd get a "Wii will outsell PS2" mocked the hell out of and that's actually possible.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

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trestres on 01 March 2011
Immortal said:

Why the hell is this thread still alive?

I'd get a "Wii will outsell PS2" mocked the hell out of and that's actually possible.


WW or Japan?



Proud poster of the 10000th reply at the Official Smash Bros Update Thread.

tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."

Bets with Conegamer:

Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.

Fullfilled Prophecies

Immortal on 01 March 2011
trestres said:
Immortal said:

Why the hell is this thread still alive?

I'd get a "Wii will outsell PS2" mocked the hell out of and that's actually possible.


WW or Japan?


WW, :P.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

trestres on 01 March 2011
Immortal said:
trestres said:
Immortal said:

Why the hell is this thread still alive?

I'd get a "Wii will outsell PS2" mocked the hell out of and that's actually possible.


WW or Japan?


WW, :P.


ok :P



Proud poster of the 10000th reply at the Official Smash Bros Update Thread.

tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."

Bets with Conegamer:

Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.

Fullfilled Prophecies

Salnax on 01 March 2011

Wii. The headstart is just too big.



My friend is a Vtuber, check him out.

jarrod on 01 March 2011
postofficebuddy said:
jarrod said:

I see my figures as more realistic.  Wii and PS3 both sold around 1.5 million in 2010 in Japan, both are going to sell less this year, and it's probably just a few years until both are done putting in significant years of sales at all (Wii especially, it likely has 2 years max).  Japan's also moved on from home consoles for the most part, and having 3DS and NGP on the market this year is just going to further cannibalize what's left.  I see this as especially dangerous for PS3, NGP really makes it an entirely unnecessary platform from a Japanese perspective.

On the other hand saying something like 12m PS3s sold lifetime is likely, essentially doubling it's current userbase... well, that's pretty optimistic to say the least.  In fact, I'd say it's fantasy.


Doubling its current userbase would be 13 million. And I didn't say 12 million, I gave a range of 11-12. And if NGP is going to cut into PS3 sales so heavily then why aren't we already seeing the signs of it? Last year DS sales declined sharply almost immediately after the 3DS was announced and even a price cut didn't remedy the situation. PS3, and particularly PSP, aren't showing any signs of slowdown. Last year PS3 sold 1550k. That was simply by maintaining a decent baseline of sales around 20k-25k with handful of semi-spikes on the Torne, Hokuto Musuo, and white model launches. It's already maintaining that baseline and it just got a price cut. Not to mention the fact that PS3's performance last December was as piss-poor as it could have gotten. There's no way it's going to do that poorly this December with FFXIII-2 coming out. And if you think sequels don't push hardware look at MH3P. Next year VsXIII will keep PS3 at least relevant enough to do another million, especially if we see another price cut in 2012 as well.

I said essentially doubling.  Doubling it's current userbase would actually be 12,610,174, not 13 million. If you're going to get nitpicky, then actually get this stuff right.

PS3 is going to sell less this year than last year, and probably much less the following year.  It's holiday last year wasn't great, but it's not like it lacked for content (hello GT5).  If the console passes even 10 million, Sony should consider themselves lucky.   

I think FFXIII-2 and Versus will do okay, probably around 1.5m-ish each, but neither is a game that can really push new hardware to any sustainable degree.  To compare them to MHP3 is laughable.  The only upcoming game even nearing the same league on any home console is DQX, and I can't see it having anywhere close to the same sort of hardware effect.  And DQX is a game that will likely outsell XIII-2 and Versus combined.